Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.26.2025

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๐ŸŒ Market-Moving News ๐ŸŒ:

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿค” U.S. Consumer Confidence Dives ๐Ÿค”: American consumer confidence fell to 98.3 in February (down from 105.3 in January), The steepest one-month drop since 2021.

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ“‰ German GDP Contracts ๐Ÿ“‰: Germanyโ€™s economy shrank by 0.2% in Q4 2024 (quarter-on-quarter), confirming a downturn in Europeโ€™s largest economy. Recession concerns in the Eurozone could influence global growth sentiment as exports and industry show signs of weakness.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ’ฑ Fed Rate Cut Bets Trimmed ๐Ÿ’ฑ: Markets are now pricing in only one 25bps rate reduction in 2025 (versus two previously expected),

๐Ÿ“Š Key Data Releases ๐Ÿ“Š:

๐Ÿ“… Wednesday, Feb 26:

๐Ÿ  MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 ET) ๐Ÿ : Last weekโ€™s applications fell -6.6% amid rising interest rates. Traders will watch if lower demand continues, as higher borrowing costs cool the housing market.

๐Ÿ  New Home Sales (10:00 ET) ๐Ÿ : Consensus expects around 680K units (vs 698K in December). This Jan report will show if higher mortgage rates are slowing home sales or if housing demand remains resilient to start 2025.

๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 ET) ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ: Last week, inventories rose to about 432.5 million barrels. A larger-than-expected draw could boost oil prices, while a build might ease price pressures (and inflation concerns).

๐Ÿ’ฌ Fedโ€™s Bostic Speaks (12:00 ET) ๐Ÿ’ฌ: Markets will monitor his commentary for any hints on monetary policy or growth/inflation views.

๐Ÿ“Œ #trading #stockmarket #tomorrow #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis

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