SPY - Bull or Bear??

Updated
Three waves or Five? That is the question. It appears that we are entering the final stages of a wave 3, that generally defines a corrective move. I'm anticipating a test of the recent highs this week followed by a Wave 4 move down to the 430 level followed by a final move to the 500 area going into next year.

Overall, I continue to be long term bullish. Rather than the coming down move reflecting an end of the world crash, I anticipate that we are just in a major wave 2 with a super bull wave three move that will last years, to follow. If the past trendline activity can be used as a guide, I would expect the major wave 2 to find a bottom around the 40 month moving average.

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