SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUSTUpdated SPY Technical Analysis & GEX Options Setup for February 26
📌 Key Observations from the Charts
1. Market Structure & Price Action:
* SPY had a steep drop from the 610-613 zone, now consolidating near 600.
* Support Levels:
* 600.00 (current price zone, minor support).
* 595.00 (major support & highest negative GEX level).
* 590.00 (critical put wall & last line of defense before deeper downside).
* Resistance Levels:
* 607.10 (POC, key resistance level).
* 610.38 (VAH, major rejection area).
* 613.26 (high resistance zone).
* If SPY loses 595, expect a further decline to 590 or lower.
2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels:
* Point of Control (POC): 607.10 → Major liquidity zone, critical to reclaim for upside.
* Value Area High (VAH): 610.38 → Strong resistance zone.
* Value Area Low (VAL): 599.47 → Must hold for potential rebound.
3. Indicators Review:
* MACD: Bearish momentum remains, though slight signs of divergence.
* Stochastic RSI: Deeply oversold, possible short-term bounce, but confirmation needed.
🛠️ Options GEX Analysis
* Call Resistance:
* 615-620 → Strong gamma resistance, unlikely to be breached soon.
* Put Walls & Support Zones:
* 595 → Highest Negative NETGEX & Major Put Support.
* 590 → Critical put wall—if breached, could trigger further downside acceleration.
* Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx):
* IVR 30 | IVx Avg 19.4 → Moderate IV, but increased put activity.
* Put Positioning 117.5% → Heavy bearish bias, extreme downside risk.
📈 Trade Setups & Game Plan
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup)
🔹 Entry: Short below 599 confirmation. 🔹 Target 1: 595.00 (Put Wall Support). 🔹 Target 2: 590.00 (Put Wall Breakdown Level). 🔹 Stop-Loss: Above 603 (invalidates breakdown). 🔹 Options Strategy:
* Buy PUTS 600/590 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms.
* Debit Put Spread (Bearish 600P/590P for risk control).
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Less Likely)
🔹 Entry: If price reclaims 603-607, targeting 610+. 🔹 Target 1: 607.10 (POC, first resistance). 🔹 Target 2: 610.38-613.26 (major resistance). 🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 599 invalidates upside move. 🔹 Options Strategy:
* Sell 590/585 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play.
🎯 My Thoughts & Suggestions
* Main Bias: Bearish, unless 603+ is reclaimed.
* Gamma Risks: Below 595, strong gamma exposure can push SPY lower quickly.
* Options Play: Puts are dominant, showing market hedging & downside risk.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
1. Market Structure & Price Action:
* SPY had a steep drop from the 610-613 zone, now consolidating near 600.
* Support Levels:
* 600.00 (current price zone, minor support).
* 595.00 (major support & highest negative GEX level).
* 590.00 (critical put wall & last line of defense before deeper downside).
* Resistance Levels:
* 607.10 (POC, key resistance level).
* 610.38 (VAH, major rejection area).
* 613.26 (high resistance zone).
* If SPY loses 595, expect a further decline to 590 or lower.
2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels:
* Point of Control (POC): 607.10 → Major liquidity zone, critical to reclaim for upside.
* Value Area High (VAH): 610.38 → Strong resistance zone.
* Value Area Low (VAL): 599.47 → Must hold for potential rebound.
3. Indicators Review:
* MACD: Bearish momentum remains, though slight signs of divergence.
* Stochastic RSI: Deeply oversold, possible short-term bounce, but confirmation needed.
🛠️ Options GEX Analysis
* Call Resistance:
* 615-620 → Strong gamma resistance, unlikely to be breached soon.
* Put Walls & Support Zones:
* 595 → Highest Negative NETGEX & Major Put Support.
* 590 → Critical put wall—if breached, could trigger further downside acceleration.
* Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx):
* IVR 30 | IVx Avg 19.4 → Moderate IV, but increased put activity.
* Put Positioning 117.5% → Heavy bearish bias, extreme downside risk.
📈 Trade Setups & Game Plan
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup)
🔹 Entry: Short below 599 confirmation. 🔹 Target 1: 595.00 (Put Wall Support). 🔹 Target 2: 590.00 (Put Wall Breakdown Level). 🔹 Stop-Loss: Above 603 (invalidates breakdown). 🔹 Options Strategy:
* Buy PUTS 600/590 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms.
* Debit Put Spread (Bearish 600P/590P for risk control).
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Less Likely)
🔹 Entry: If price reclaims 603-607, targeting 610+. 🔹 Target 1: 607.10 (POC, first resistance). 🔹 Target 2: 610.38-613.26 (major resistance). 🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 599 invalidates upside move. 🔹 Options Strategy:
* Sell 590/585 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play.
🎯 My Thoughts & Suggestions
* Main Bias: Bearish, unless 603+ is reclaimed.
* Gamma Risks: Below 595, strong gamma exposure can push SPY lower quickly.
* Options Play: Puts are dominant, showing market hedging & downside risk.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Trade active
🔥 SPY Trading Game Plan – February 24, 2025 🔥
📌 Market Context:
* Pre-market action: Price is consolidating near the Value Area High (VAH) of the previous session.
* Breakout Attempt: SPY broke out of a descending wedge, but volume and follow-through are questionable.
* Major Levels in Play:
* Resistance: 604 - 605 (VAH & liquidity zone)
* Support: 600 - 599.50 (High volume demand zone)
* Market Direction: Sideways until we get a clear break above 604 or rejection below 602.50.
🛠️ Trading Plan for Today
🚨 Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish, but waiting for confirmation.
1️⃣ Opening Strategy (First 30-60 min)
📌 Key Focus:
* Identify the first 5-minute range (Opening Range High/Low – ORH/ORL).
* Volume Reaction: A strong push above 604 with volume = bullish continuation.
* Weak push above 604 or failure at 603.50 = possible rejection and fade lower.
🔹 Scalping Strategy:
* Bullish Scenario: ✅ Buy above 604.50 on strong volume. 🎯 Target: 606-607 🛑 Stop Loss: Below 603.50
* Bearish Scenario: ✅ Sell below 602.50 on rejection of VAH. 🎯 Target: 601-600 🛑 Stop Loss: Above 603.50
2️⃣ Scalping Zones for the Morning
🚀 Bullish Scalps:
* 🔼 Breakout Buy: Above 604.50 (if strong volume).
* 🔼 Pullback Buy: 600-601 (If price dips & bounces off key support).
🚨 Bearish Scalps:
* 🔽 Sell below 602.50 (if VAH rejection).
* 🔽 Breakdown Short: Below 600 (if price loses support).
3️⃣ Intraday Trend Confirmation
If SPY holds above 604-605, expect continuation toward 607-608. If SPY rejects 604 and falls below 602.50, expect a slow fade back to 600-599.50.
🚀 Final Thought:
* 🏆 First 30 mins = Key for Direction
* Let price confirm breakouts before jumping in. No confirmation = No trade.
* Be quick on scalps, but follow trend if it emerges.
* 🚨 Risk management: If volume is weak, don’t chase—wait for the best setups!
📉 If in doubt, stay out! 🎯 Scalping works best when liquidity and volume support the move.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.