Holy Cannoli...
So many things saying sell and take profits right now it's not even funny.
500 is the first real support. If that green wave iii uptrend is to stay in play, we need to bounce at 500, which would only be -3% or so.
Then 485 is the next support at the bottom of the uptrend channel. If 485 is broken then those red downtrend C waves are in play.
1. SPY ran into trouble at the top of it's uptrend channel. Technical short-term sell indicator.
2. SPY is about to close the week with a bearish engulfing pattern. This is actually a call for a large downtrend. Look at the large white arrows pointing down. Those are all similar weekly candles that led to major corrections.
3. Gold/Silver/Oil are all going up meaningfully. Inflation coming back...? Or the markets may finally be pricing in geopolitical tensions with Iran now vowing revenge.
4. The BTFP ceased extending new loans on March 11, 2024. federalreserve.gov/financial-stability/bank-term-funding-program.htm
5. Reverse Repo is running out of money to pump into the market. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
6. I am counting 8 unfilled gaps, which...by no means do they need to all be filled. There is no law that states gaps must be filled, but rather it is a tendency. This is similar to the tendency of pull backs to be alternating in character (if the last pullback was long a choppy, the next tends to be short and sharp)
Extra Sidenote/Soapbox here:
Believe it or not, long term bond yields are still in an uptrend. Credit is still constrained, and we'd already be in a financial crisis if it weren't for the fact that the Fed is allowing banks to void the mark-to-market principle in treasuries. This means if a bank purchased 1 trillion in treasuries, but they are down -50%, they can still currently claim to have 1 trillion in "liquidity", which is absolutely not the case because if they had to sell them tomorrow either the Fed would have to buy them and take gigantic losses, or the market would pay them the market rate and the banks would fail. Imagine your brokerage account was down by 50%, but you could claim you have 100% of those liquid assets and go get a loan back off that. That would be illegal for us mere peasants.
We are in weird, weird times.
conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-mar-2024
Check out the US10Y
500 is the first real support. If that green wave iii uptrend is to stay in play, we need to bounce at 500, which would only be -3% or so.
Then 485 is the next support at the bottom of the uptrend channel. If 485 is broken then those red downtrend C waves are in play.
1. SPY ran into trouble at the top of it's uptrend channel. Technical short-term sell indicator.
2. SPY is about to close the week with a bearish engulfing pattern. This is actually a call for a large downtrend. Look at the large white arrows pointing down. Those are all similar weekly candles that led to major corrections.
3. Gold/Silver/Oil are all going up meaningfully. Inflation coming back...? Or the markets may finally be pricing in geopolitical tensions with Iran now vowing revenge.
4. The BTFP ceased extending new loans on March 11, 2024. federalreserve.gov/financial-stability/bank-term-funding-program.htm
5. Reverse Repo is running out of money to pump into the market. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
6. I am counting 8 unfilled gaps, which...by no means do they need to all be filled. There is no law that states gaps must be filled, but rather it is a tendency. This is similar to the tendency of pull backs to be alternating in character (if the last pullback was long a choppy, the next tends to be short and sharp)
Extra Sidenote/Soapbox here:
Believe it or not, long term bond yields are still in an uptrend. Credit is still constrained, and we'd already be in a financial crisis if it weren't for the fact that the Fed is allowing banks to void the mark-to-market principle in treasuries. This means if a bank purchased 1 trillion in treasuries, but they are down -50%, they can still currently claim to have 1 trillion in "liquidity", which is absolutely not the case because if they had to sell them tomorrow either the Fed would have to buy them and take gigantic losses, or the market would pay them the market rate and the banks would fail. Imagine your brokerage account was down by 50%, but you could claim you have 100% of those liquid assets and go get a loan back off that. That would be illegal for us mere peasants.
We are in weird, weird times.
conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-mar-2024
Check out the US10Y
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