Why the handle of "The Uncertain Trader"? Let's check the daily SPY (S&P 500 ETF) chart just after the close of 17 Jun 2025;
I've got no idea where this thing is going.
Thus the handle.
No one has any idea where this is going. If they insist they do they are selling you something. In the words of Brad Hamilton, "Learn it. Know it. Live it".
However, one must form a hypothesis to trade from, right or wrong. And TradingView has excellent tools to do so AND a FREE social network to share such theories.
Back to SPY, I have my suspicions;
SPY closed at 597.53, below it's all-time high of 611.39 (gray line and box) from Feb 19 and above it's 200 day simple moving average of 577.41 (purple line and box). Besides some support at 595.48 (arrow), which is way too close to be useful, and maybe resistance at Wed's high (also too close), there's really no other obvious support or resistance. So, it's ~14 points to the solid resistance at that significant high and ~20 points to support. If one goes long it's 20 points to be proven wrong, 14 points to the good and where the trade will likely stall - not a good reward to risk. Going short is a little better, with 20 points to support with 14 points of risk, but still a rather meager reward to risk.
And now factor in an FOMC meeting tomorrow (Wed 18th). SPY could easily hit one of those marks (2.3% up, 3.4% down), or both, tomorrow afternoon.
The (safer) play is to hold off, stay neutral, and let SPY resolve this, up or down. Let it test/hold it's all-time high or it's 200-day.
Again, I have no idea where this is going - just my theory.
And please, read the following and, again, "Learn it. Know it. Live it";
My ideas here on TradingView are for educational purposes only. It is NOT trading advice. I often lose money and you would be a fool to follow me blindly.
I've got no idea where this thing is going.
Thus the handle.
No one has any idea where this is going. If they insist they do they are selling you something. In the words of Brad Hamilton, "Learn it. Know it. Live it".
However, one must form a hypothesis to trade from, right or wrong. And TradingView has excellent tools to do so AND a FREE social network to share such theories.
Back to SPY, I have my suspicions;
SPY closed at 597.53, below it's all-time high of 611.39 (gray line and box) from Feb 19 and above it's 200 day simple moving average of 577.41 (purple line and box). Besides some support at 595.48 (arrow), which is way too close to be useful, and maybe resistance at Wed's high (also too close), there's really no other obvious support or resistance. So, it's ~14 points to the solid resistance at that significant high and ~20 points to support. If one goes long it's 20 points to be proven wrong, 14 points to the good and where the trade will likely stall - not a good reward to risk. Going short is a little better, with 20 points to support with 14 points of risk, but still a rather meager reward to risk.
And now factor in an FOMC meeting tomorrow (Wed 18th). SPY could easily hit one of those marks (2.3% up, 3.4% down), or both, tomorrow afternoon.
The (safer) play is to hold off, stay neutral, and let SPY resolve this, up or down. Let it test/hold it's all-time high or it's 200-day.
Again, I have no idea where this is going - just my theory.
And please, read the following and, again, "Learn it. Know it. Live it";
My ideas here on TradingView are for educational purposes only. It is NOT trading advice. I often lose money and you would be a fool to follow me blindly.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.