SPY 2024 prediction

Updated

This is a SPY 2024 prediction based on trajectory. These lines are not random. They are the centerline with support and resistance levels based on the historic angle of trajectory. SPY should close for 2023 around 425. Barring a black swan event or Q3 earnings upside revision. A few of a bunch of interesting intersections of these trajectory lines are as follows.

The March 23rd, 2020 weekly candlestick tapped the 1993 trajectory low, 2023 trajectory centerline and broke through the 2009 trajectory low. In September - October 2020 the 2009 trajectory centerline acted as a support and resistance area. In May - July 2022 the 2009 trajectory centerline acted as a support and resistance area. Recently, in April - May 2023 the 2009 trajectory centerline acted as a support area.

1993 trajectory for 30 years:
high = 386
mid = 323
low = 259

2009 trajectory for 14 years:
high = 508
mid = 425
low = 340

2023 trajectory for 6 months:
R3 = 488
R2 = 477.50
R1 = 467
pivot = 456.50
S1 = 446
S2 = 435.50
S3 = 425

Note

SPY snapshot 2023 trajectory:

SPY snapshot 2009 trajectory:

SPY snapshot 1993 trajectory:

Note

6/12/23 update SPY zoom in view:

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6/12/23 update SPY options data:

6/16 expiry
Put Volume Total 123,706
Call Volume Total 102,498
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.21
Put Open Interest Total 3,572,755
Call Open Interest Total 1,823,149
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.96
Highest OI call strike 440 - 57,069
Highest Vol call strike 440 - 15,545
Highest OI put strike 425 - 53,300
Highest Vol put strike 430 - 12,245

7/21 expiry
Put Volume Total 48,317
Call Volume Total 14,566
Put/Call Volume Ratio 3.32
Put Open Interest Total 2,134,011
Call Open Interest Total 769,384
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.77
Highest OI call strike 445 - 2,375
Highest Vol call strike 430 - 48,304
Highest OI put strike 420 - 116,280
Highest Vol put strike 430 - 2,149

8/18 expiry
Put Volume Total 15,829
Call Volume Tota l4,854
Put/Call Volume Ratio 3.26
Put Open Interest Total 1,043,389
Call Open Interest Total 473,867
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.20
Highest OI call strike 435 - 42,050
Highest Vol call strike 432 - 568
Highest OI put strike 430 - 17,968
Highest Vol put strike 425 - 812

Note

This week's catalysts:
CPI on Tuesday 6/13 830am
FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday 6/14 2pm
ECB interest rate decision on Thursday 6/15 8:15am
Witching on Friday 6/16 expiration of +3 trillion dollars

Note

My scientific formula for predicting CPI tomorrow. Egg prices have gone down. lol

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SPY 6/13/23 update pre-market CPI release:
Mirror image January 2022 - October 2022 angle of trajectory

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SPY 6/13/23 update pre-market CPI release:
Mirror image January 2022 - October 2022 angle of trajectory with channel alerts.

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Today is a good start of a 1 month rotation out of technology and into healthcare. Tech is way up and healthcare is way down. It makes sense for me from a risk : reward entry / exit standpoint.

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Trendline Alert triggered today 6/14/23:

Note

Just got an alert SPY crossing trendline.
Trade idea flip direction
Sell 6/16 calls
Buy 7/21 puts

Note

Hold 7/21 puts for a month
Equity market is closed for a 3 day weekend

Note

Hold 7/21 puts for a month
Trade weekly calls with the market

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to give his semi-annual testimony on Capitol Hill, starting this Wednesday 10am with the House and then Thursday 10am in the Senate.

Note

Hold 7/21 puts for a month
Trade next week 6/26-6/30 calls with the market

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One of several possible scenarios for SPY in 1 month: 410

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SPY 6/21/23 options data update:

7/21/23 expiry
Put Volume Total 295,934
Call Volume Total 170,653
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.73
Put Open Interest Total 2,476,821
Call Open Interest Total 843,321
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.94
Highest put OI strike 425 - 51,313
Highest put Volume strike 430 - 33,745
Highest call OI strike 440 - 46,645
Highest call Volume strike 440 - 13,544

Note

SPY 6/22/23 trading update:
Looks like SPY will bounce up and close green for today.
Hold 7/21 puts for a month.
Trade next week 6/26-6/30 calls with the market.

Note

SPY 6/22/23 TTCATR VWMA levels update:

R3 = 444
R2 = 439
R1 = 433
pivot = 428
S1 = 422
S2 = 416
S3 = 411

Note

SPY 6/23/23 trading update:
Hold 7/21 puts for a month.
Trade next week 6/30 calls with the market intraday.

Note

The US market is usually bullish heading into July 4th.

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SPY 444 may be a double top pattern in the making

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SPY 9/26/23 snapshot update:

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SPY 9/26/23 4hr chart snapshot update:

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SPY 9/26/23 closing bell snapshot:
1 day chart, 1 year view, TTCATR VWMA20

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