$SPY top at $472-474 and to bottom below $300
Updated
If you've been following my ideas over the last few weeks, you'll know that I have a macro bearish view going into next year. I think the market is setup to drop 30-40%+.
I know everyone is calling for new highs (Tom Lee, looking at you), but it's not going to happen IMO. We're not in a bull market, this is still just a bullish bounce within a bear trend.
I'm not sure what the fundamental catalyst will be that will bring markets down so much... it's hard to ever know before it happens, but there will be something in Q1 that will be very negative for markets.
However, until then, I think we have a little bit more upside in SPY as I shared in this analysis (short term view). Essentially, I think we have one more move higher to about $472-$474 and then I think we'll top and start moving lower. I've taken short term calls to express this view w/ expiration 12/29, and after some of the names I bought hit their target, I will start buying long term puts with expirations out to 3/18 and 6/21 2024.
Let's see if this plays out over the coming weeks.
I know everyone is calling for new highs (Tom Lee, looking at you), but it's not going to happen IMO. We're not in a bull market, this is still just a bullish bounce within a bear trend.
I'm not sure what the fundamental catalyst will be that will bring markets down so much... it's hard to ever know before it happens, but there will be something in Q1 that will be very negative for markets.
However, until then, I think we have a little bit more upside in SPY as I shared in this analysis (short term view). Essentially, I think we have one more move higher to about $472-$474 and then I think we'll top and start moving lower. I've taken short term calls to express this view w/ expiration 12/29, and after some of the names I bought hit their target, I will start buying long term puts with expirations out to 3/18 and 6/21 2024.
Let's see if this plays out over the coming weeks.
Note
First resistance about to get tagged this morning. Going to take a put w/ 3/18 expiration at open.Note
Upside targets look like they're going to get hit today.Note
Target hitNote
Going to keep adding to my puts up here throughout the dayNote
So far, so good. Up 40% and 13% on the puts so far. Last week we had a major weekly pivot and so far this week has started selling off. Let's see how price action shapes up over the coming weeks. I'd like to start seeing red heikin ashi weekly candles form to confirm the trend change.
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