To add context, I am an average joe in his 20's who graduated high school with a 1.6 GPA.. Prior to my current employment at a financial institution, I worked as a gas station clerk. I am not someone who sees himself as a genius, but I am somebody who identifies patterns not only in people, but charts as well. I've worked for a bank on the credit card side coming up on 5 years. Day in day out, people are struggling to keep up with their credit card payments. 750-830 FICOs struggling to keep up with bills. Keep in mind, I only work with what we deem our 'high value', cliental. If our card holders who we deem to be good or great consumers are struggling to keep up, I can only imagine what it looks like for those who don't qualify to get to my department (which is a rather big pool of people). This thesis is centered around a possible correction in the short term, that may lead to a long-term reset based off of 4 things: human behavior, Federal Reserve Data, inflation, and credit.
The market as we know it has been propped on lies, fraud, and negligence. This is not a political post, but if you look at Federal Reserve Reports through FOMC under the previous administration, over 48% of job reports specifically, were revised downwards. During the duration of March of 2021 to September of 2024, approximately 808,000 jobs were "added", to the economy. One can make the argument that these numbers were there to, 'fluff, reportings to hide one of the worst economies in history.
The Dollar has been a concept and an asset since 1785. Since 2020, we've printed over 60% of all dollars circulating. Over 200 years and it only took the U.S. a little under 5 years to print over 60% of all U.S. currency circulating. The inflation never left; it was hidden by false or fraudulent data. Americans have been squeezed from their hard-earned dollar for the last 4 years, between higher interest rates, higher inflation and cost of living. Remember how I mentioned I work for a bank on the credit card side? Minimal payments, easily $6500 dollar balances on average, being carried month to month between 24-27% APR. Americans DO not have money. Over the last month, one of the most common statements I've heard is, "The only way I can pay this off is I cash out on assets.". Delinquencies are sky rocketing to levels not seen since '07 - '08. People are slowly getting the same thought.
The first week of April in my opinion is do or die. Trump is set to announce new tariffs as of April 2nd. If Trump decides to really lay down the tariffs and kick off a real trade war, markets will react in a manner of uncertainty. If in that same week, the Federal Reserve forecasts a lower GDP, a higher CPI, a decrease in forecast in employment, that could be the kick that takes the stool out from under the market.
If you've made it this far, thank you for taking the time to consider my first publication.
-ScG
The market as we know it has been propped on lies, fraud, and negligence. This is not a political post, but if you look at Federal Reserve Reports through FOMC under the previous administration, over 48% of job reports specifically, were revised downwards. During the duration of March of 2021 to September of 2024, approximately 808,000 jobs were "added", to the economy. One can make the argument that these numbers were there to, 'fluff, reportings to hide one of the worst economies in history.
The Dollar has been a concept and an asset since 1785. Since 2020, we've printed over 60% of all dollars circulating. Over 200 years and it only took the U.S. a little under 5 years to print over 60% of all U.S. currency circulating. The inflation never left; it was hidden by false or fraudulent data. Americans have been squeezed from their hard-earned dollar for the last 4 years, between higher interest rates, higher inflation and cost of living. Remember how I mentioned I work for a bank on the credit card side? Minimal payments, easily $6500 dollar balances on average, being carried month to month between 24-27% APR. Americans DO not have money. Over the last month, one of the most common statements I've heard is, "The only way I can pay this off is I cash out on assets.". Delinquencies are sky rocketing to levels not seen since '07 - '08. People are slowly getting the same thought.
The first week of April in my opinion is do or die. Trump is set to announce new tariffs as of April 2nd. If Trump decides to really lay down the tariffs and kick off a real trade war, markets will react in a manner of uncertainty. If in that same week, the Federal Reserve forecasts a lower GDP, a higher CPI, a decrease in forecast in employment, that could be the kick that takes the stool out from under the market.
If you've made it this far, thank you for taking the time to consider my first publication.
-ScG
Trade active
After today's close, I am currently up 176% on this short position. This is not something I tend to close until bare minimal, 04/07/25. Today we had a follow through trend on the Bear Flag. I'm expecting Trump to come out swinging with tariffs, and I'm expecting a dog water report from the Federal Reserve.Note
Below $550.50 is correction territory. If we break, I feel $515 is not only to be expected, but swift. Monday is going to be a make-or-break type of day, and I would not consider a 'risk on', mindset.I hope you all have a safe, fun weekend. We've got a big week ahead.
-ScG
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.