Last Friday, the market pressure was intense, and my bullish call option, targeting $537.64 on SPY, seemed overly ambitious as tariffs and political uncertainties peaked. I stated, "
SPY Trump went all in thinking he had the cards. We were getting sent back to the McKinley era," wondering when or if Trump would fold under international pressure and market realities.
Fast-forward to Wednesday, April 8—Trump didn't just blink; he folded utterly, reversing the harsh tariff policies he initially defended aggressively. Prompted by China's aggressively dumping of U.S. Treasuries and stark recession warnings from Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and JPMorgan, Trump pivoted significantly:
• Base tariffs: 10%
• Tariffs on China: Increased to 125%
• Tariffs on U.S. goods entering China: Increased to 84% starting April 10
While temporarily bullish, these sudden, dramatic policy swings underline ongoing instability and volatility. However, with big bank earnings on deck this Friday, short-term momentum looks positive.
Technical Levels & Trade Ideas
Hourly Chart
The hourly chart reveals a critical zone—dubbed "Liberation Day Trapped Longs"—between $544.37 (H. Vol Sell Target 1b) and $560.54 (L. Vol ST 2b). Bulls trapped here from recent highs may now look to exit on a relief rally.
• Bullish Scenario:
• Entry: SPY reclaiming and holding above $544.37.
• Target 1: $560.54 (top of trapped longs)
• Target 2: $566.54 (next resistance area)
• Stop Loss: Below recent lows near $535 to limit downside.
• Bearish Scenario (if tariffs intensify again or earnings disappoint):
• Entry: Breakdown confirmation below $535.
• Target 1: $522.20 (Weeks Low Long)
• Target 2: $510.00, potential further support
• Stop Loss: Above $544.50 to manage risk effectively.
Daily Chart Perspective
The broader daily chart shows SPY stabilizing around key lower supports after significant volatility. Recent price action suggests cautious optimism for an upward bounce, but considerable headwinds remain if tariff escalations resume.
Final Thoughts
The rapid tariff reversals and heightened volatility are unsettling. The short-term bullish move offers potential quick upside trades into earnings, but caution remains paramount. You can continue managing risks prudently and watch closely for political or economic headlines that could quickly shift market sentiment again.
SPY Trump went all in thinking he had the cards. We were getting sent back to the McKinley era," wondering when or if Trump would fold under international pressure and market realities.Fast-forward to Wednesday, April 8—Trump didn't just blink; he folded utterly, reversing the harsh tariff policies he initially defended aggressively. Prompted by China's aggressively dumping of U.S. Treasuries and stark recession warnings from Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and JPMorgan, Trump pivoted significantly:
• Base tariffs: 10%
• Tariffs on China: Increased to 125%
• Tariffs on U.S. goods entering China: Increased to 84% starting April 10
While temporarily bullish, these sudden, dramatic policy swings underline ongoing instability and volatility. However, with big bank earnings on deck this Friday, short-term momentum looks positive.
Technical Levels & Trade Ideas
Hourly Chart
The hourly chart reveals a critical zone—dubbed "Liberation Day Trapped Longs"—between $544.37 (H. Vol Sell Target 1b) and $560.54 (L. Vol ST 2b). Bulls trapped here from recent highs may now look to exit on a relief rally.
• Bullish Scenario:
• Entry: SPY reclaiming and holding above $544.37.
• Target 1: $560.54 (top of trapped longs)
• Target 2: $566.54 (next resistance area)
• Stop Loss: Below recent lows near $535 to limit downside.
• Bearish Scenario (if tariffs intensify again or earnings disappoint):
• Entry: Breakdown confirmation below $535.
• Target 1: $522.20 (Weeks Low Long)
• Target 2: $510.00, potential further support
• Stop Loss: Above $544.50 to manage risk effectively.
Daily Chart Perspective
The broader daily chart shows SPY stabilizing around key lower supports after significant volatility. Recent price action suggests cautious optimism for an upward bounce, but considerable headwinds remain if tariff escalations resume.
Final Thoughts
The rapid tariff reversals and heightened volatility are unsettling. The short-term bullish move offers potential quick upside trades into earnings, but caution remains paramount. You can continue managing risks prudently and watch closely for political or economic headlines that could quickly shift market sentiment again.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.