Short

Updated

Spy

I think this week the 20sma will be tested on indexes and major stocks alike..

With the spy i expect a test of 505 early this week.. 505 is gap supoort from NVDA earnings and also the 20sma.. if spy breaks that support, 500 then 494 is next up. I like to take my correction 1 moving average at a time.. 494 will be close to the 50sma.
If we bounce off 505 the marathon continues.

Iwm daily chart.
Fib levels are from ATH and 2020 low.
Smacked 209.30 fib resistance friday and closed on rising wedge support.. i think IWM pulls back to 200 minimum this.. long this only on a close above 210. Short entry below 206.00

Qqq daily
Looking for the 434 early test this week. Nasty candles all over big tech so i won't preach lol.
Below 434 and things turn dramatic. Below 434 and we are headed to test the 50ema and gap close at 424.

Dow jones or DJI
Looks the nastiest off all indexes.. weekly made consecutive lower highs.
Ascending broadening wedge here.. looking for 2½% pullback to 37,800 support

I'll go over some sectors tomorrow .
Needed a break from the weirdos on here..

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1hr chart..
18168 (Yellowline) or 436 next target.

Below that and 18,050 (Green line) or 434 next up

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Nq hit my first target 18160 along with qqq 436... price could still go for my 2nd targets of 18050, or 434 or it could bounce at the open.. have to see what happens.
As you can see they've already chose their plunge protectors Googl and aapl..

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Ok, So spy stopped at 508.50 gap support...
Should trade between 510 and 508 today.. CPI tomorrow for the 505😈.. As far as today i would only reshort below 508 ..

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Qqq 30min chart...
433 is the NVDA earnings gap support..
Im looking for a test there.. a break below and its bear season.

Falling wedge forming though, if 433 doesnt break then we most likely head to 450

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Vix daily chart...
16.00 is resistance here...
Over that and Vix heads back to 18.00
18.00 will be tough to break without a catalyst...

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Qqq 5min.. This was the H&S that i mentioned on friday.. It completes at 433-434. Unless it breaks back over 439 then i would say 433 is still the target.
So far qqq 20sma has held as support today.. Abover 439 and 442 is the first target.

Vix support is 200ema at 15.40 resis is at 16.00

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You see that 3hour money flow on the NQ? Its too over sold. What this means is usually within the next 2 trading sessions a big move up is coming; This doesnt mean qqq cant hit 433-434, it just means I'd be weary to swing short after tuesday

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Im leaning with a flush down tomorrow... swinging 135p TSMfor the gap close .. 2hour chart..
Good luck on your swing..

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1hour chart.. todays gap and flush finished the Head setup..
The bounce and chop between 508-511 partially finished the right shoulder.. the setup is there for 505 tomorrow.. lets see what happens. Catch you'll later

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CPI reads stagflation...
Spy resistance
515.00
516.70

Spy support 512.00

Qqq resistance
442
445 .50

Support
439

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Smh chip sector.. 1hour chart.
For a bearish scenario you'd like to see SMH reject at 225-226... over 227 and chips melt up

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Qqq keeps getting knocked back at the neckline

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Spy approaching resistance here at 516.60..
Qqq resistance at 443...

Not saying to short, just careful with odte

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Qqq would have to drop below 440.50 for a short back to 438.. otherwise its a melt

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Over 443.20 comes 445...
Some things i notice..
Googl 139 resistance
Msft - 415 resistance
Meta - 500 resistance
Tsla -180 resistance

They'll need to break higher or NVDA and aapl to contribute more to push nasdaq higher

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XLC
Meta/Googl

Back at the top of our monthly range... Either we breakout for a bullflag or its a pullback incoming

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Spy 30min.. stuck at trendline resistance... gonna need some volume or 515 will be retested.

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Qqq 5min...
Intra day wedge forming..
They could pop this back up to 443.. below 441 and we see 439.00

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Qqq.. 5min chart most likely headed back to 445

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Vix daily chart.. they will crush this back to support by friday then ramp it up again for FOMC

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Nothings overbought... they'll most likely melt this up into friday 520 SPY and 450 QQQ..

Not swinging anything. . I'll catch the ride up intra day tomorrow..
Catch you'll later

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ES 4hour chart... 4hour money flow is getting overbought..
Look for a final push up to 5270 channel top or 520 on spy. After that i expect a 1½% pullback minimum

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Morning... Premarket chop here... QQQ 441.00 support could pullback there and bounce.. bullish over 440. If it drops below 439 we'll test 436 again.. Maybe a mix day on tech.. Tsla downgraded horrendously, very bearish under 172..

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They'll have individual runners that will act as plunger proctectors if they plan to prop this up and push it higher. Most likely the usual suspects. The target is still 450 on QQQ by friday..

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They push QQQ back over 441.20 they'll melt it up.. drops below 439 and they'll flush... 439-441 is chop

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Dow jones breaking to the upside of this flag.. im getting 40k vibes.. if dow breaks over 39,300 then 40k is likely..

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Qqq pennant here on 3min..
Direction will be chosen in the next 15min

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I'll be back on later

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Smh chip sector .. H&S showing but unless it breaks 220 they'll buy it up

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The choppy pullback has allowed the money flow on the futures to cool off which is good, i wouldnt want to swing calls overbought

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XLY daily sector.. I think a big move is coming to push this up to 186 or trendlien resistance..
Tsla and Amzn are both the sector leaders but looking at tesla price action I think amzn will be the catalyst here..

Over 182.50 and this sector breaks to the upside

Looking at amzn here on the 4hour chart
Looks like a bullflag setup here.. ATH incoming if this breaks back over 180

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The thing is, i dont agree with this price. I think Spy should correct back to 480 minimum but I'd like to see 440. Yet here i am buying and swinging calls. "There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee"

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Nq 1hour chart..
Bounced off trend line support here..
Bearish below 18,160..
Otherwise we move higher tomorrow to 18500, then over that 18,695..

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Morning... No soft landing.. Crash comes later but lets focus on today!

As long as 439 holds on QQQ, they'll melt it up.. you have to trade whats in front.. If qqq breaks 439, we test 437 or 20sma.. otherwise 445 is next stop

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Chip sector leading the drag on tech.. SMH just tag 219 support.. if holds they'll buy it up

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Dow and QQQ just test 20sma...

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Qqq 1hour chart..
Most like trade inside until Adobe earnings afterhours 438-441

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Still holding Amzn... scalp some qqq 0dte of 20sma. I'll be back on later

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Vix pushed to its 200sma at 14.70
Look for a pullback on vix and markets to hold support or LOD...

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ou see the 1-2 hour money flow on NQ? Your already know what that means

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Im long on qqq and Amzn into tomorrow... Daily candle are crap but alot pf things are oversold so i think we can open green but theres no guarantees we close green so i swing for the open

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All of that for a .20% pullback...
Qqq and dow both broke 20sma intra day but closed back above it..
IWM finished the pullback to support at 200 and bounced. Vix got smack down at its 200sma..
Half big tech green the other half red, which makes trading Etf treacherous.

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Qqq 1hour chart..
Played the channel the entire day .
I'll have levels and entries in the AM

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Chips still dragging..
Qqq opening up inside this range her 436-439.50.. over 440 and 442 is the target.. below 436 and 433.50 comes. Its witching so expect some swings, if you odte, dont get complacent

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Bleeding wont stop till spy tags its 20sma at 508.50..

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Spy 1hour.. Trendline was my target from the beginning of the week
Just tagged it and 20sma...

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Its quad witching expect swings...
433 qqq and 508 spy is support...
Blue chips and Financials usually do well on quad witching. They'll buy this up again before the day is out.. the last 10-15 min of market comes with big moves

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🍋🍋🍋

ContraryTrader

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ContraryTrader

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