It going to hit its peak on Wednesday, Jan 18th ...
Updated
close to 402, point A. Then it will continue to go down on Thursday after the Initial Jobless claims.
It will continue to drop until probably next Thursday, Jan 26th (point B) and then do a 50% retracement for a few days (point C). The high point of that wave will be hit on Jan 31 (point C), the day before the Fed announcement. The day of the announcement, it will continue to go lower. Around Thursday, Feb.2nd, it will drop a lot as that is the day of the Initial Jobless Claims until it hits around 290, the week later. (approximate date: Feb 7).
I use technical analysis but usually the technical analysis has a fundamental reason to move or change directions.
It will continue to drop until probably next Thursday, Jan 26th (point B) and then do a 50% retracement for a few days (point C). The high point of that wave will be hit on Jan 31 (point C), the day before the Fed announcement. The day of the announcement, it will continue to go lower. Around Thursday, Feb.2nd, it will drop a lot as that is the day of the Initial Jobless Claims until it hits around 290, the week later. (approximate date: Feb 7).
I use technical analysis but usually the technical analysis has a fundamental reason to move or change directions.
Note
On Friday, February 3rd, the unemployment rate is also supposed to be released, where it will drop even further and continue into the next week until it hits around 290.Note
The only thing to be concerned about is what the weekly indicators are showing. If the weekly indicators continue to look bullish, my predication may not happen as I outline. We should know within a week if the weekly indicators change.Trade closed manually
The weekly/monthly indicators do not support my current projection of the market. The market will go down briefly but not as deep as I currently projected.Trade closed manually
The weekly/monthly indicators do not support my current projection of the market. The market will go down briefly but not as deep as I currently projected.Trade active
I just reopened my trade after closing it yesterday. LOL! I decided to do that instead of drawing another chart. (But I still may do that) Like I said above, I do think the market will go down but MAYBE not as deep as I currently projected. Because the peak did not go as high as I anticipated, the fibonacci levels will be slightly different such as the 2.618 level will be closer to 349 (just a guesstimate- I should really do another chart to be more accurate).
The weekly indicators are changing to be more consistent with my predication of it going down like I anticipated just at different levels. I use the same weekly indicators as the daily indicators and that allows me to see where the SPY will go farther in the future.
Note
With the above chart, you will have to move it over a bit to see. I just don't know how to manipulate it and I am not wasting my time trying to figure it out. LOL!Note
The above chart shows the time frames and WHY the market is going to move like it does. For example, tomorrow, Jan 19 is initial jobless claims, so I suspect that will be higher than expected making the market drop. On Jan 26 is the initial jobless claims again. I suspect it will be better than expected making the market bounce back up. On Jan. 30th, the market will peak and close around the same point it entered. The following day is the Fed Meeting, so it will drop some more and then on Feb 1st, it will drop a little more.
But on Thursday, it will gap down, dropping significantly with Friday, Feb 3rd gapping down dropping down significantly as well. And on Monday, Feb. 6th it will gap down as well and drop significantly too.
But it will rebound on Feb. 7, 2023 for some reason.
Why do I think this?
If you look at any significant drops in the past, they typically follow this pattern. 6 days down, 3 days up with the 3rd day being a doji and the next 2 days are minor drops with the last 3 days dropping significantly. Go ahead and look at some of the past drops... it will be the same, I tell ya. ;-) This isn't rocket science, just recognizing patterns. This is what we learned in kindergarten. :-)
Note
There is a chance that it won't go as low as projected and the retracement will only go 50%, 61,8%, 78.6% or 100% of the last move as shown in the link I added above. The amount of the move will depend on the weekly indicators, which I will post a chart of tomorrow.Trade closed manually
I am going to close this trade as the 1 hour, 2 hr, 3 hr and 4 hr indicators are projecting a bullish move and this has hit the 61.8% fibonacci retracement as shown in the link of the second chart I posted.
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