How go the transports, so goes the market
Updated
comparing 45min chart of SPY and IYT...volume profile gives some support as to why the IYT is not recovering. there is no volume support at current prices, and holders mainly bought much higher...
SPY...it is at the point of supply...failed to get above it and is now grinding in a narrow range as the volume at this level fights for supremacy...I think the straight volume trend still in decline, compared to the increasing volume in the IYT shows that the price has not quite hit the stops or trigger point on SPY.
As the economic reality sets in, another month of missed payments, 2 looming bankruptcies (Hertz, JCrew), and unemployment on thursday...I'd expect some risk off trades ahead of the numbers, but with the fiscal stimulus fire hose on full blast...who knows...maybe people are placing bets for an in line number and thus irrationally exuberant push higher...As a small business owner, I just can't shake the sense that something profound has changed. In some ways for the better, but for the near term economic outlook it is decidedly negative.
Maybe not this week, but by this fall we will be trading sub 2400 on the SP500 and talking about the worst economic crisis in living memory.
Printing fiat will not fix this...It is a system of payments, the payments can't stop for more than 30days...let alone 60-90, before the system just fails...Don't believe me? Get long and watch.
SPY...it is at the point of supply...failed to get above it and is now grinding in a narrow range as the volume at this level fights for supremacy...I think the straight volume trend still in decline, compared to the increasing volume in the IYT shows that the price has not quite hit the stops or trigger point on SPY.
As the economic reality sets in, another month of missed payments, 2 looming bankruptcies (Hertz, JCrew), and unemployment on thursday...I'd expect some risk off trades ahead of the numbers, but with the fiscal stimulus fire hose on full blast...who knows...maybe people are placing bets for an in line number and thus irrationally exuberant push higher...As a small business owner, I just can't shake the sense that something profound has changed. In some ways for the better, but for the near term economic outlook it is decidedly negative.
Maybe not this week, but by this fall we will be trading sub 2400 on the SP500 and talking about the worst economic crisis in living memory.
Printing fiat will not fix this...It is a system of payments, the payments can't stop for more than 30days...let alone 60-90, before the system just fails...Don't believe me? Get long and watch.
Note
Got the minor push higher, but rejected hard at the same 2950 level...and now back at the 2800-2750 support (a big OPEX area too 2825)...will it hold a 3rd time. IMO, it might hold before the weekend, MIGHT!....any break below 2780 with volume, and 2500 is where I'd be looking to get back in long. Currently I'm looking to short on the break.Note: volume still on the low side...hence why i think it might hold this level into weekend...but to repeat, a break of 2780 on above recent average volume, or at least breaking the volume down trend, and you want to be out or short. good luck to all.
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