Weekly chart...
White line represents Primary trend since 08 housing crisis crash
Blue channel represents price action from 2017 -2025
Now pay attention..
You see the yellow trendlines ? Those represent the up trend from covid crash and 2022 crash.
Those were micro uptrends both lasting 2yrs in length..
So now the market has hit a reset switch and I believe we are headed back to the blue trendlines bottom
Like so -
I think over the next week or so if spy recovers 567 then we will have one more squeeze to 585 before the next leg down
My target by the End of Q2 is 490-500.. basically we are back into 2022 price action
Once we hit channel support I expect An accumulation and consolidation before a new multi yr rally to 700
I know this sell off seems random and tariffs related but it's not! Markets top back in Nov/Dec same as 2022.
To show you what I mean by that just look at the other Indexes and tell me is it a coincidence they all hit their decade long resistance at the same time?
Dow Jones target 38,000
NYA/NYSE (More important then spy)
NASDAQ /Ixic
Notice how NASDAQ , Dow, NYA and Spy all hit resistance at the same time? No Trump tariff , No inflation fears, No interest BS just good ol channel trade.. I know perma bulls want up forever but I suggest waiting for Spy 490-510 for the REAL dip buy..
You're going to see a bunch of charts focusing on the weekly hammer printing this week but I'd like to point out that in 2022 we also had week hammers print
I do think Spy can bounce as high as 585 if it can get over 567 next week..
White line represents Primary trend since 08 housing crisis crash
Blue channel represents price action from 2017 -2025
Now pay attention..
You see the yellow trendlines ? Those represent the up trend from covid crash and 2022 crash.
Those were micro uptrends both lasting 2yrs in length..
So now the market has hit a reset switch and I believe we are headed back to the blue trendlines bottom
Like so -
I think over the next week or so if spy recovers 567 then we will have one more squeeze to 585 before the next leg down
My target by the End of Q2 is 490-500.. basically we are back into 2022 price action
Once we hit channel support I expect An accumulation and consolidation before a new multi yr rally to 700
I know this sell off seems random and tariffs related but it's not! Markets top back in Nov/Dec same as 2022.
To show you what I mean by that just look at the other Indexes and tell me is it a coincidence they all hit their decade long resistance at the same time?
Dow Jones target 38,000
NYA/NYSE (More important then spy)
NASDAQ /Ixic
Notice how NASDAQ , Dow, NYA and Spy all hit resistance at the same time? No Trump tariff , No inflation fears, No interest BS just good ol channel trade.. I know perma bulls want up forever but I suggest waiting for Spy 490-510 for the REAL dip buy..
You're going to see a bunch of charts focusing on the weekly hammer printing this week but I'd like to point out that in 2022 we also had week hammers print
I do think Spy can bounce as high as 585 if it can get over 567 next week..
Note
Dow Jones transportation Leading indicator of the economy
Major Wyckoff completing..
This waterfall on spy back to 500 will be called the "RECESSION CORRECTION"
Note
We all know how tough 565-567 is right? That area will require lots of volume to break over and that volume will not be there until FOMC. Also did you see how Qqq go rejected from it's 484 gap and weekly 50sma? That also will require volume to break over..
Now volume will come on FOMC but it's no guarantee which direction market takes... I'm thinking Powell throws market a bone and comes in dovish because of Job losses and drop in CPI...
BOJ interest decision is Tues night
Note
Vix 1hour chart..falling wedge here is promising a spike back up to 24.00 this week..Note
With the Dow pushing right at its 200sma , Spy at 567, and Qqq right near 484 resistance I don't like calls hear into the swing.. No news overnight so I can't see a big gap up incoming. Most likely another chop session into tomorrow ...Catch you'll later
Note
4 hour chart finished with a shooting star . 4 hour means exactly that, we could pullback the first half of tomorrow Support and target is 562
Note
Interesting spot here for Qqq 1. So we lost are weekly uptrend from 2023
Price has been trying to reclaim that trend
2. Very strong price action resistance at 485 from last summer and fall
3. Weekly 50sma at 486
If Qqq doesn't reclaim 486 tomorrow or by Friday we will be headed to 448 next and that will most likely drag spy below 550
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.