Short

Spy

I think we have one more leg down to 538-540 before earnings season kicks off next week ..

and showing same chart

I will update this more later but I wanted to get this out before market closes... Of course if we gap above trendline resistance and CLOSE above it the the resistance is negated .

Another, you see that gap from March 14th that the spy and Qqq closed? Well the Dow Jones gap is still left open and

Note

Here's Spy 1hour chart...
I circled in purple today's gap down.. this gap doesn't negated this small channel.. this channel has room enough for a gap up to 570 if they want too but if they can't push this above 572 or we close below 570 then any gap is trap.

Note

So..
By Friday your targets are

539

549

190-191

I say by Friday because they could save the final leg to those targets for Job report or Powell speech.
I wouldn't buy calls before those levels and I wouldn't short near those levels

I think after those levels are hit they buy things up and let economic and earnings news take hold...
I don't we make any new highs until spy 490-510 and Qqq 390-400 but I do think what is showcased is wedges and as long as the support holds we will call it a wedge that is big enough for a 10% pump if it breaks to the upside

Note

Dragging this out.. but they are going to push this lower into tomorrow..
Don't buy calls yet

Watch for VIX to tag 30.00

Note

They should hold that 539.00 area on spy... .. below 538.00 and we head to 533 gap close.. of 539.00 holds we bounce back to 550-553

Note

1 hour chart..
There's no rush to buy the first test of 539 unless you're scalping .. until Qqq closes gap at 449 we will most likely retest it again be for the real move higher

Note

533 is the gap below 539...
Looks like we will close it tomorrow from 533 I will buy calls...

Why? On every time frame from 1hour to the weekly spy is outside it's BBands.. This will not hold for more than 2 session.. So you have a higher chance of tagging 550 then breaking below 530.

So, Buy at 533, stop loss below 530.00 below 530 and 518 gap is incoming

Note

The bigger picture is this
weekly

We are headed back to its primary trendline.. now if we just keep melting then that TGT will 480-490.. if we have a bounce back to 585 before then most likely the low is 510

Note

NYA

Another 4% down .. and it's a long term buy.. most likely new ATH.. unless that wedge breaks, then it's sub 400

Note

The sell on the banks is just getting started..
Even if we bounce today or Monday the banks will sell more next week with earnings

Wyckoff distribution has broken to the downside

Note

Don't buy the dip yet.... We should see Qqq 431 first... I like calls there..

I don't know if we gap down Monday but 430-431 is a good entry for a nice bounce . Below 430 and there's no more support until 400

Target 450 gap close

Note

Last chart
this is the biggest sector in the $Spy..

Log scale..

White line - smaller wedge which led to this correction

Yellow line bigger wedge and current support.

We are approaching support here.

Why is this important? Well the 3 biggest stocks in that sector are

Now look at where they all are

Sitting on horizontal strong support

sitting on strong support

sitting on that 365 support

So what does this mean? Well this is 9 trillion dollars holding support, if they bounce here with Qqq at 430 , then the market will bounce.. well atleast NASDAQ.

If Qqq loses 430 then these stocks are in trouble and
MSFT will head to 330,
aapl 160
Nvda 70

Note

just tagged 510 support

Very close to 7% circuit breaker..

powell will either cause a circuit breaker event or a huge recovery

Note

Here's Dow Jones weekly.. it's about 1½ away from support. They may try to go for it today or wait for next week. If they go for it today then spy will flush to ,500

Same goes for NYA

I've bought some April 17th calls and I will take the chance of holding and adding at the end of day of they flush but you have to take the risk you are comfortable with.. I'm not a knife catcher and those of you who've followed me know I told latest last year that this was coming, I just didn't expect the entire move by April.. I think from here spy can bounce back as high as 540.00 before the next leg down

Note

Last update for this post...
I've showed you DJI and NYA weekly .

Here's
We're approaching trandline support from 2020-2022 lows.. as long as 500.00 holds I think a bottom maybe in.

Now if spy loses 500.00 then we are headed to 480.00 and I wouldn't long anything unless it gets back above 500.00..

They are already pricing in More cuts this year so I think by the next FOMC MAY 7th the market will rally up to ATH..

So what I'm looking for next week is a
Back to 540.. there's is a 30% chance we make a trip to 500.00 but the chance of 540 is higher to me..

So I like late April -may calls with a stop below 500.00

ContraryTrader

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ContraryTrader

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