Let's look at the technical basics for the long run:
SPY is in a major 'broadening wedge' formation, which is now likely to breakout to the upside. NOTE: SPY has been in a 'partial decline' for a few weeks standing before a potential breakout, or a (still possible) meltdown. For the partial decline to complete, SPY would need to touch or cross the (approx.) 303.80 mark (upper major formation line). A failure to complete it would have dire consequences. This would lead to an extreme correction further down the road and require the stock to reach (at least) the midpoint of the formation's vertical distance. In contrast, if the stock breaks up above and remains there, you could see new highs of 320-350 in no time.
Another issue to consider here is this:
'Valley 1' is the major formation's lowest point. Connect it with the trend's next lower point, 'Valley 2' (notice there is no other clear markable valley point), and you'll have a 'trend guide line'. Once this line is broken (as has happened in August), a short-term trend change is technically "demanded". If sooner or later is another discussion, but remains an absolute "must".
In my personal analysis of this, I see SPY to be a ticking bomb, with major trend-changes starting within JAN'20 to APR'20. But before doubling down on this verdict, let's see what the market does until the end of October. Which should, by then, clearly present a rather more certain direction.
SPY is in a major 'broadening wedge' formation, which is now likely to breakout to the upside. NOTE: SPY has been in a 'partial decline' for a few weeks standing before a potential breakout, or a (still possible) meltdown. For the partial decline to complete, SPY would need to touch or cross the (approx.) 303.80 mark (upper major formation line). A failure to complete it would have dire consequences. This would lead to an extreme correction further down the road and require the stock to reach (at least) the midpoint of the formation's vertical distance. In contrast, if the stock breaks up above and remains there, you could see new highs of 320-350 in no time.
Another issue to consider here is this:
'Valley 1' is the major formation's lowest point. Connect it with the trend's next lower point, 'Valley 2' (notice there is no other clear markable valley point), and you'll have a 'trend guide line'. Once this line is broken (as has happened in August), a short-term trend change is technically "demanded". If sooner or later is another discussion, but remains an absolute "must".
In my personal analysis of this, I see SPY to be a ticking bomb, with major trend-changes starting within JAN'20 to APR'20. But before doubling down on this verdict, let's see what the market does until the end of October. Which should, by then, clearly present a rather more certain direction.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.