Short

SPY forecast thru Aug 5 (Updated)

Updated

The market made a really nice broadening wedge Friday, but we're at major resistance. The market needs to pull back here to cool off and bring more buyers in. VXX is printing hollow red weekly candles which means she's about the blow up again. She's been primed and ready for a breakout for the past two weeks.

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Target 366-376 thru Aug 5:

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406 first target this week. The volume profile looks dicey if the price falls hard and fast to 406 it's like to keep going down to 398. But the bulls did their thing and broadened the playing field. Good on them.

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Continuation pattern if that inverse h&s plays out. Yipes.

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Turn around Tuesday. Incoming. Gap down 407 by morning if no hard sell-off at close.

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This is the most bullish forecast I can see for Tuesday:

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SVXY:

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Target 403 Tuesday

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Spy Target 340-350 by Sept/Oct.

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Sink or Swim bulls:

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Hamburger for lunch:

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Bulls are putting up a good fight. Unfortunately, the price action is aggressively bearish until we hit 406. I suspect we'll see a pop there tomorrow.

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I'm glad the bulls broadened this structure. It's going to invite more chop, but chop could help this market breakdown efficiently.

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Let's see how this breaks dowh. If the price action stays inside of the cypher that's fairly bullish once we hit 402 or so. Bears really wanna see this thin pull back hard to that first red dip, that would inspire a very bearish h&s image with a steep wall to climb, the market will drawdown rapidly to the next line of support 38% retrace (388). Again, volume profile shows strong support between 388 and 372. But if she falls aggressively, I imagine this would motivate some bears who bought the 'bottom' to take profits. A break below the 50% is going to trigger a sell off to new market lows.

SLOPolarBear

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