April seasonality finally showed its self this past week.. You can always tell when seasonality takes over because of the volume and the fact that news doesn't matter anymore.
Example - March, Sept and sometimes May are bearish seasonality.. In these months you'll notice that no matter how good the news or earnings stock still stumble...
Nov, Dec, April are bullish and most of the time no matter the bad news things just pump or get bought up for no reason.
I think spy goes for 565.00 this week, which is only another 3% higher. To put this in perspective, Spy was 536 on 4/23 and melted up 3% in two days on no volume ..
At 565 I think there will be a very nice short opportunity where I think spy will pull back to to 540-545.. I wouldn't short this before 565, and this only becomes bearish again if spy closes next week below 535.00!
Now here's the chart
DJI
Very low key late this week.. contrary to qqq the dji has not broken above its trend line resistance but I think that will happen this week and it most likely will off set any draw done from big tech.. imagine a day where dow jones is up 400pts and nasdaq down 150pts; this price action would lead spy to chop in the middle FAWKERY.
The upside target here is APRIL 2ND gap close
QQQ
Yellow trendline is breakout
White trendline is April 2nd gap close
Red line is - 20sma
So like I said above, qqq is leading the way up to April 2nd gap close. This gap close at 476 is about 5% aways from the 20sma.. I think once qqq tags 476 it will begin a pullback to 465-468.. during this pullback you will see them pump the dow. As long as 465 holds then 488 is next or weekly 50ma. If we lose 465 then a full 20ma retest is incoming..
To keep it simple, long qqq early to 476 then wait for a pullback or short it back down to 465-468.. if those areas hold then switch back long and ride it up to 480+
Vix
Minor falling wedge showing at gap support 24.80 .. if this pattern plays out thin Vix could pop back up to 31 or 20sma which could see markets start the week in the red but unless vix can reclaim 32.00 then this is just a dead cat bounce that will give you a good entry to long equities
I won't go into the tech Sectors but the overall picture I think is a melt up to the WEEKLY 50MA on Sectors and indexes
I still can't see this market overall making significant ground to ATH.. the leading INDEX
NYA is showing a Decade long Rising wedge which is the biggest I've ever seen.
Since 2010 this resistance has not broken and If spy pushes back up near 600 then NYA will tag this again which means we are headed back down before the summer is out. Once this rising wedge is broken will make new lows and break below 400
In closing... Spy supports are
547 (Price action)
543 ( 1hour 200ma)
537( 20ma daily)
I don't think spy will lose 543 before 555 comes... once you seeQQQ tag 476 be weary of being long, wait for the pullback then long QQQ and 
SPY to their weekly 50ma
Opinion
Job numbers are released this week Friday which is the beginning of "SELL in MAY " seasonality.
All of the fed speakers have said that if jobs come in strong than they won't vote for a cut.
Feds don't cut on May7th and Trump throws a tantrum and market sells again..
This scenario is the reason I think the market will maximize these big tech earnings to get the upside move out of the way before early may. Also next month the economic data (Ppi,cpi,pce,pmi) will give the first glimpse of what damage the tariff are doing / will do.
So buckle up come May
Example - March, Sept and sometimes May are bearish seasonality.. In these months you'll notice that no matter how good the news or earnings stock still stumble...
Nov, Dec, April are bullish and most of the time no matter the bad news things just pump or get bought up for no reason.
I think spy goes for 565.00 this week, which is only another 3% higher. To put this in perspective, Spy was 536 on 4/23 and melted up 3% in two days on no volume ..
At 565 I think there will be a very nice short opportunity where I think spy will pull back to to 540-545.. I wouldn't short this before 565, and this only becomes bearish again if spy closes next week below 535.00!
Now here's the chart
DJIVery low key late this week.. contrary to qqq the dji has not broken above its trend line resistance but I think that will happen this week and it most likely will off set any draw done from big tech.. imagine a day where dow jones is up 400pts and nasdaq down 150pts; this price action would lead spy to chop in the middle FAWKERY.
The upside target here is APRIL 2ND gap close
QQQYellow trendline is breakout
White trendline is April 2nd gap close
Red line is - 20sma
So like I said above, qqq is leading the way up to April 2nd gap close. This gap close at 476 is about 5% aways from the 20sma.. I think once qqq tags 476 it will begin a pullback to 465-468.. during this pullback you will see them pump the dow. As long as 465 holds then 488 is next or weekly 50ma. If we lose 465 then a full 20ma retest is incoming..
To keep it simple, long qqq early to 476 then wait for a pullback or short it back down to 465-468.. if those areas hold then switch back long and ride it up to 480+
Vix
Minor falling wedge showing at gap support 24.80 .. if this pattern plays out thin Vix could pop back up to 31 or 20sma which could see markets start the week in the red but unless vix can reclaim 32.00 then this is just a dead cat bounce that will give you a good entry to long equities
I won't go into the tech Sectors but the overall picture I think is a melt up to the WEEKLY 50MA on Sectors and indexes
I still can't see this market overall making significant ground to ATH.. the leading INDEX
NYA is showing a Decade long Rising wedge which is the biggest I've ever seen. Since 2010 this resistance has not broken and If spy pushes back up near 600 then NYA will tag this again which means we are headed back down before the summer is out. Once this rising wedge is broken will make new lows and break below 400
In closing... Spy supports are
547 (Price action)
543 ( 1hour 200ma)
537( 20ma daily)
I don't think spy will lose 543 before 555 comes... once you see
QQQ tag 476 be weary of being long, wait for the pullback then long QQQ and SPY to their weekly 50maOpinion
Job numbers are released this week Friday which is the beginning of "SELL in MAY " seasonality.
All of the fed speakers have said that if jobs come in strong than they won't vote for a cut.
Feds don't cut on May7th and Trump throws a tantrum and market sells again..
This scenario is the reason I think the market will maximize these big tech earnings to get the upside move out of the way before early may. Also next month the economic data (Ppi,cpi,pce,pmi) will give the first glimpse of what damage the tariff are doing / will do.
So buckle up come May
Note
Observation
SMH chip sector114.00 is gap close , price action resistance and 50ema.. most likely when qqq closes 476 gap smh will close 114. At that point chip's will most likely lead any pullback back down.
Note
IWMWeekly 200ma + price action resistance at 197-198.. will be tough area there .. first touch of 197 will most likely get faded. Over 200 and 209 comes..
Right now 190 is support, so 190-197 is chop. Below 187 is bearish. Long 190 and short 197
Iwm is important because like the chip sector it's move has proceeded the rest of the market.. chips and small caps flushed before everything else and they rebounded before everything else. If iwm can't reclaim 200 then 😬
Note
In 2022 we had 2 major bear market rallies for 17% off their lows. Both stopped at weekly 50smaRight now our weekly 50sma is at 567 with stiff price action around 575 so I'd wager that if this is nothing but a bear market rally then they will rug pull around 567-575.. over 580 and 600 comes
Note
Well the pullback that I was expecting this week for Spy 547 and Qqq 468 has already happened.. tomorrow we'll likely finish the leg up to spy 555 and qqq 476.. 565 spy and 488 qqq Maybe but let's see how things play outNote
Good morningSPY 1hour chart. As long as yesterday low holds we push higher. I'm thinking the move higher comes 30-45min after market open.. yes volume is low but consider economic data late in the week to put things in perspective. Note
Alright so this is where I would go to cash and wait for data tomorrow.. I still think we get 565 gap close but I also believe 1 of the next 3 days will be a sizeable gap down and flush .Bearish Divergence on
SPY 30min.We would need to gap up to negate
Note
SPY 1 hour unlike the last 2 day melt up I think they will flush things pretty hard today after a fake bounce early on.. look for a retest of 549-550 before a flush back down to 541-543543 is the 1hour 200sma
541 is the daily 21ema
I think they will flush things down to this area
Note
You see that 5min 200sma ? It's at 550.. If you are trading today, I'd wait for a retest of that area to short back down... If you plan to buy the dip I'd wait for 541-543 or just wait for EOD...
Note
Looking for the vix to stall at 28.50 area and 21ema Note
This should be the low of the day.. but we may revisit it before the close Note
The air is getting thin up here.. I would take profits on the longs and not open any new calls up here... it's not bearish yet but we are approaching a brick wall with QQQ 488 and spy 565NQ IS ALREADY struggling at 20,000
Note
QQQ next stop is 488-490 .. then the correction begins 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.