Short

SPY- Bear Market Incoming! 'Hide yo Kids'

Updated

There is no doubt about it. We have finally Broken our Ascending Wedge Structure. Just before we broke structure we broke above ATH's form October, creating a classic bear market, major fake out, bull trap. We did it Impulsively! On genuine panic selling. We are resting now at final support, easily seen on the SPX chart. This will likely drop fast and impulsive as it makes its first leg down. From this point we expect to see a series of impulses down followed by the consolidation of some kind... typically a bear flag or pennants, 'h' followed by more impulses down when small TF supports are broken...

I Still believe the probabilities are way stacked in the favor of a crash, but if we get supported at the halfway down around 264 and never break it then that will be the next deciding point in this potential market cycle switch.

We have been in a bull market cycle ever since our government pulled out all of the stops to flood the market with freshly printed USD, QE, Bailouts, 0% fed interest rates for 10 years. After the biggest BULL RUN in history (w the least amount of 20% consolidations) we went on to consolidate sideways now for almost a year and a half. Cycles go BULL- CONSOLIDATION- then.. (Bear or Bull). I Am in the bear camp for this one.

This is a quick analysis because we are breaking my 'h' Pattern as I type, I should be Going ham in my orders right now, so I will leave you here, and please if you are a bull, please stay safe.

Please refer to my last analysis (attached below) for more details about technicals...

Stay Snappy Stay Safe

* not financial advice

Note

As we sell off we will likely see many Bullish descending wedges in the smaller TF's... If you are on an Fx platform that is conducive to high-frequency trading then you will want to watch for breaks of the many Bullish Wedges that will follow. Get your FIBS out because you will need them.

*I am NOT calling for a breakout of this pattern and to hit a FIB retracement. This is more of a tip for how to manage some of your trades if you're on a high-frequency platform.

Note

Local Top
.618 Fib Retrace at Historical Horizontals

Note

.382 reached ... breaking counter trendline. We could get supported at local double bottom. Caution. With the market closing in 10 Minutes anything can happen during closing procedures.

Note

Closed on Backtest... Feels bad for the end of day buyers (all that green volume coming but hardly any movement in price). That just trapped some people that will be selling at next support break. -- We will see how the futures market carries us tonight. It looks like more downside to go due to the weak retracement today. Although, thinly traded aftermarkets might provide you a good shorting opp at open if prices rise tonight.

Note

Hit .618 Retracement look for reversal

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Favored Potential Scenario.

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.786 Is now being tested. This is a High Level for a Fib retrace after impulsive selling, I would be truly shocked if this level doesn't hold. Fridays typically end strong for these past few months. Any change in behavior of that could be a clue to a change in market behavior.

Note

QQQ Backtesting Final Support outer https://trendlineshttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sBnPfTom/

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Russell - In the Distribution area of Supply Zone that has held as resistance for some time now. I expect more distribution and a final sell off

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Tech Sector is showing signs of weakness as it has not even backtested yet. This is an important Sector to Watch. It's Looking Ready to Sell off Hard.

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SPX500USD Chart (which has Extended Hrs Data) Gives us a different Fib reading) has us at the .618 currently. We are also currently backtesting the All Time Highs from October. This is holding as resistance right now, and will likely not be tested again after todays rejection. If someone on the floor wants to they can get the price up to the backtest of trendline extended up to the .786 on this chart. But to me this is doubtful. Just gettting this high is quite remarkable, but still nothing has changed in the big picture. GL Warriors.

Note

Russell Small TF- could be set for break down selling

Note

Awaiting a Sneeze from the Big Bad Bear. That's all it will take to sink this ship. Yesterday already but a crack in its hull. Notice the 1. Declining Volume today. 2. Just above the historic ATH level to get the last of the bulls caught in the iron jaws of an industrial grade bear trap. Still awaiting the volatility that comes with closing procedures on a Friday. Today will be an Extremely Critical Close.

Note

Also, between Futures last night and todays price action I'd say we're hitting ceiling on the Average True Range Standard Deviations.

PipMiesterStronger

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