There's A Setup For A Bounce
Updated
For fun, no idea what I'm doing.
Same as all the last times really, just see how it goes tomorrow morning, right now future are up and probably will need to be pretty in the red like 532-535 area to feel comfortable.
Depending on what happens tonight going into tomorrow it's setting up for a bounce as crazy as that looks and sounds.
The bottom graph has a line that suggests oversold. In my mind it is set up if the line remains below the dotted line July 31. If it goes up above then maybe toss the idea (sometimes it still goes works). I literally only post when this is set up and the last time was Oct 30 23, and I posted the weekend before.
Maybe down early in the first part of the day, then reverse up and hard for the next few days?
This is the first time this is setup since Oct 30 23.
From the low of July 31 -
I usually say
5% chance of ~+10% by Aug 5 (top yellow circle)
40% chance of +5.5% by Aug 5 (lower yellow circle)
60% chance of +5.5% by Aug 14 (right yellow circle)
Really really really don't think we will get +10% with how things are set up that's just blowing into ATHs, but just saying it does happen sometimes (not when it's like this though)
Green eclipse is things going according to the idea, above is a bonus, below is a fail.
You might be asking 40%? 60%? so you're flipping a coin? could go up, could go down? Well it's 40-60% chance of +5.5%, nothing is guaranteed and that's why you have responsible stops in place.
Feelings wise it just doesn't really make sense being near ATH, the drop hasn't been that bad, a bounce puts us near ATH at the very least, and Friday's unemployment numbers might trigger some recession indicators e.g. Sahm (even though a lot of them have been triggered and we sit here).
So I guess it's up to that FOMC meeting tomorrow? I mean my feelings don't matter but if I do enter anything and it goes my way a little I'm cashing out a little early at least.
Same as all the last times really, just see how it goes tomorrow morning, right now future are up and probably will need to be pretty in the red like 532-535 area to feel comfortable.
Depending on what happens tonight going into tomorrow it's setting up for a bounce as crazy as that looks and sounds.
The bottom graph has a line that suggests oversold. In my mind it is set up if the line remains below the dotted line July 31. If it goes up above then maybe toss the idea (sometimes it still goes works). I literally only post when this is set up and the last time was Oct 30 23, and I posted the weekend before.
Maybe down early in the first part of the day, then reverse up and hard for the next few days?
This is the first time this is setup since Oct 30 23.
From the low of July 31 -
I usually say
5% chance of ~+10% by Aug 5 (top yellow circle)
40% chance of +5.5% by Aug 5 (lower yellow circle)
60% chance of +5.5% by Aug 14 (right yellow circle)
Really really really don't think we will get +10% with how things are set up that's just blowing into ATHs, but just saying it does happen sometimes (not when it's like this though)
Green eclipse is things going according to the idea, above is a bonus, below is a fail.
You might be asking 40%? 60%? so you're flipping a coin? could go up, could go down? Well it's 40-60% chance of +5.5%, nothing is guaranteed and that's why you have responsible stops in place.
Feelings wise it just doesn't really make sense being near ATH, the drop hasn't been that bad, a bounce puts us near ATH at the very least, and Friday's unemployment numbers might trigger some recession indicators e.g. Sahm (even though a lot of them have been triggered and we sit here).
So I guess it's up to that FOMC meeting tomorrow? I mean my feelings don't matter but if I do enter anything and it goes my way a little I'm cashing out a little early at least.
Note
The whole if it goes above the line then wait and see thing happened after that gap up overnight. It might still go like in a post I made a couple of years ago but that's not what I'm looking for.Short of a big swing down today somehow it's probably not going to get back under. It will remain close so maybe another dip soon and I'll make another post like last year in October.
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