Short

Updated

Spy 🐻🚩

Bear flag showing here on spy and a few other indexes/ sector.
This bear flag would be consider a handle for a inverted cup and handle.

Smaller time frame looks like this spy

And heres NQ

We are headed back to bear flag support around 500.. from there we could either finish one more bounce higher 511-514 before finishing the leg down to 480

The bear flag starts below 500, first target is 495 gap close..
The Inverted cup start below 495... short it and every pop to 480

Vix 2hour - bullish wedge

DXY 4hour - bullflag

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Nq sold to support.. Amzn beats (Coincidence)... once they break this flag is game on for bears but if they pump it they could push this up one final time to 17,900 -18,000 .. that means QQQ 433-435

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Last week spy bounced off its weekly 20 at 495.. that 20 has moved up to 499.00 now.. Below that and we head to 495..
The short term technicals are oversold so i think we bounce early ahead of Rate decision. Vix below 16.20 a market bounces. Vix above 16.50 and market flushes more

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Qqq .. to the upside is 425.50.. 425 will be extremely tough resistance... i dont think qqq will bounce above it without Powell blessing. Over 426 and 429 is next up..
To the down side 421 is support , below that 418

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I guess we chop into decision.. technicals are telling me that if things come in dovish we will retrace 70% of yesterday's sell . Only short spy below 498.50..
Only short qqq below 420.

I'll be back on later

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Vix bouncing off 14.50 support..
Spy hitting 507 resistance
Qqq hitting 429 resistance..

Dont know what tomorrow brings but i think the next significant leg down comes with Job report friday and aapl earning

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Alright.. Heres XLK.. biggest sector on Spy.
(MSFT/ AAPL.
Bear flag initiated today. Next stop is 184 gap close

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Here's SMH (Chip sector)
Same as XLK.. bear flag to 196 gap close

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Heres XLC (Googl/ Meta)...
No bear flag but rejected at resistance.. if it breaks below 78.00 then it will double top to 75 gap close

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So yeah tech is fawked... Wouldnt be surprised to see a serious melt down friday... any pops tomorrow qould be great entries In my opinion for 5/10 - 5/17 shorts

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Vix 2hour chart with fib levels.. could chop around tomorrow between 14.50 -16.00

I expect the move to 17.50 by friday

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Alright.. Homework is done..
Catch you'll later ✌

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Qqq above 427 and it pushes up to 429.
Below 425 and 423.50 is next.
Bel9w 423 and 421 comes.

Spy abover 505.50 and 507 is next.
Below 504 and 502 is next.
Below 502 and 500 comes

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Nows heres my Opinion... Technicals went oversold last 2 days and this is a bounce..
I dont like the short today, maybe a scalp but i think they either push this up today or chop it green. Bear flag support has already been broken so im expecting flush tomorrow

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My strategy, let em pump it and position myself for a sell tomorrow and next week.

If aapl beats and job numbers come in low then they pump spy to 510-514 tomorrow and im wrong.
I can live with that 😉

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So far , so chop!.
Dow jones daily chart..
Pennant here .. looking for a breakdown or up tomorrow.. until then tight range

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Low volume algo heroics.. they'll turn them off after 3..

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Iwm 1hour chart.. similar bear flag channel.. Tomorrow either 196 or 202.. below 196 and 193 incoming

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Dow 1hour chart.. cut the algos off at resistance

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Money flow and RSI on hourly futures are neutral...
Daily 20 has death crossed below 50ma on most indexes and sectors.. this signals the beginning of a deeper correction, not the end of it..

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Ok so futures are right at yesterday's high..
Qqq and spy wont break 430 -507 with Job report blessing.. So far aapl earnings has sucked the oxygen out of tech and thats why the rest is flat.

We'll know tomorrow..
We ride at dawn
✌

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Nq 3hour chart..
Right resistance... we reject here tomorrow or breakover... Move will come after job numbers

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Es 4hour chart... stuck at resistance now similar to Nq... move will come after job report

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Pretty much every index (Dow,spy,qqq) is opening up right below 50sma which is a shitty place to open longs.. Doesnt mean they flush it red, they could melt it up later in the day... best strat - scalp short and catch a ride up later

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If indexes clear 50sma .. its looking like

516 spy
440 qqq

Before next leg down
Vix 13.50 market pivot point.

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Vix just cranked back over 14.00 have a stop on your calls..
This might get ugly

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If qqq loses 433.00 market flushes.. otherwise its just chop

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Everything got smacked at the 50sma.. if aapl earnings and a good job report couldnt get it done then this shit is toast

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Qqq closed below the 50sma and above 433..
Shorts below 433..
If we vreak over 437 then the next stop is 440 before the big leg down.
Like so

Either short below 433 or at 440.. 433-436 = chop

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Spy
Over 513 and 518 gap close most likely
512-508 is chop !
Short below 507 or at 518.. 515.80 is gap resistance so u may see a first time reject there buy if they clear 513 , 518 is next up.
tradingview.com/x/L4tuZQTW.

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Monthly candle of april was a bearish engulfing.. this means that by the middle of may you should start to see an acceleration to fulfill the monthly candle projection.

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Looking for the bearish reversal to start tomorrow afternoon...
Keep your eye on the 10yr note auction at 1:00 p.m EST tomorrow

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Here's IXIC (Nasdaq)
Started closing gap at 16467... i think it will close it then reverse from there 16,000.. what this means for qqq is 442 then back to 433..

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Vix 4hour chart
.. downtrend opposite of the market uptrend.. Daily and hourly CCI has hit oversold.. im expecting a big pop later in the week

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Huge supply area here on the Nasdaq... as you get closer and closer to the resistance you'll see more mix moves on tech.. Not enough room to pump them all at once.. they'll pump enough to hit 16,460 then reverse it.. This means choppy BS

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10yr...(TNX)..
Approaching support... like i said, keep an eye out tomorrow for that 10yr not auction.

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Qqq
50sma support - 436.50
Below that and we close gap at 435.44

My opinion we close gap at 435.44 at some point today.

433 will be tested by friday.
Death below 433

Spy
Overhead resistance at 515.80 short anything below 516.00

1st target 514.50

Below 514 and 511 gap close incoming..
509-510 target by friday

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Nq 1hour... 18200 brick wall (Qqq440)..

Headed back to 18,000
(QQQ 436)

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Games... technical flush happened then they flip algos on. no reason or catalyst yet to keep selling. If bond auction goes shitty, they cut algos off and sell for next few days

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Dow jones 1hour chart.. rising wedge here at 39k resistance... last domino to fall.. 38,500 1 st target

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10 yr auction was dud.. no market reaction.. Chop low vol again... ARM earnings aftermarket , moves chips and QQQ.... Things should have flushed more by now...

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1hour 20sma or 5min 200sma.

Unless spy breaks below this it wont sell.. Upside isn't likely either!.. I'll stick around for the 1st hour; if it still chops im out. Not staring at chop all day..

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Dow jones 15min chart..
Too of its rising wedge here.. most likely a pullback to support... unless it breaks the flush will be shallow.. = Chop

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Energy, financials and health..

Dow jones headed for gap close most likely tomorrow at 39,560.. the move is done there

I'll reenter short next week..

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Here's the Nasdaq! Or IXIC.. still has gap left open about 100 points up ... still inside flag/Channel.. they may melt this up to close it tomorrow.. if so expect 442-443 on QQQ...

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I got stopped out on QQQ today.. More theta burn then anything... I'll reenter short next week before CPI

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DIA which is the ETF for dow.. Finished outside daily bbands. Once they close gap at 395.38 the pullback to 385 will begin

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Welcome to MEME land!..

Michigan inflation 30min after open then the real move will follow.. Expect Dow and IWM to close gaps... Qqq is wild card... Over 443 and they could go for 445.50 gap close. Below 442.00 and 440.50 comes..
Dont overstay the short, only scalps..

Short comes next week

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Gap clsoed on IWM and DOW... so dont expect bullish help there. The only question is will they prop it up all day or let it go red
Look at the price action big tech .. .This is what u get at these levels.. until the indexes has a hard reset good luck on guessing which tech will be green or red tomorrow..
Qqq only flushes below 441.90 ..
I wouldn't swing any calls over the weekend.. Most likely monday headliner "Stock futures are flat ahead of economic data"

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Im out.. Enjoy your weekend

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Here are the sectors.. Keep in mind they are all Very overbought on 2-4 charts and at resistance. PPI and Powell on tuesday

XLK (Msft and aapl)
Closes resemblance to NQ price action.
Closed at resistance

XLY (Amzn and tsla)
Very tight pennant 4hour chart..

SMH (NVDA/Chips)
Trading in a narrow range with 229 brick wall over head

XLC ( Googl/ Meta)
Similar to XLY price action. Very tight triangle.

Energy XLE
Flagging near retest of 93.50 breakout..
XOM has a similar flag. This could be a bullflag or bear channel.. next week we will find out

XLF (Banks)
Double bottom completed expect a 41 retest this week. Its death for banks below 41

Lastly NQ
Smacked resistance friday...
Looking for a pullback to 17,900 early next week or 435-436 QQQ

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I'll a do a new post late next week.. until I'll be on Twitter

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Shit show aye? I said on Twitter these last 2 days would be chop... the 4hour RSI actually went from 85 to 60 from 2 days of chop with price not budging.. Will probably go oversold then pop... I'll be on twitter next week

Trade closed manually

ContraryTrader

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ContraryTrader

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