Short

Updated

Spy

The correction back to the primary trendline has started.. i had to to dust off the 100sma for a lot of stocks and indexes.

Overalll technicals tell me we are headed lower than last week lows but a nice dead cat might be here near term.

Dow jones Held that 37,800 support all week and finish the week with a break out of its down trend

Looking for a short term bounce back to 38,600 if it can get over 38,050 or 100sma. Max upside is 50sma

Long term, dow jones looks to be pulling back to 35,500 or primary trend line

Qqq weekly chart with fibs.. 407 incoming and a high chance of 395 gap close.. 411-413 closes support for a short term bounce.. weekly 20sma at 425, daily 100sma is at 422.. So any thing over 420 will be tough.. id look to short around 422-425 with 407 target.

Heres XLK the biggest tech sector...
Headed back to its primary trendline and 184 gap close near weekly 50 sma

SMH chip sector (Log scale)
Headed to trendline support around 190 similar to XLK..

IXIC (Nasdaq composite)
Friday QQQ closed gap at 413.. this same gap on IXIC is at 15,158. 15,158 gap did not get close friday. Yes it will get closed this week but an immediate drop to this level would pull QQQ to 410-411.. Fib levels are from 2022 low and ATH.. 15,158 is at .786 support so we could see a nice bounce there before heading lower. IXIC and QQQ levels are always different the same way Spy and SPX levels are.. Sometimes SPX would close a gap but spy would need another 1.00$ drop to close that same gap, this would then cause SPX to drop further fawking up your entry if you bought the dip .

3black crow weekly candle on a lot of stocks. This candle pattern indicates a fourth red week.

Vix on the other hand is showing 3 white knight pattern which indicates a 4th green week ahead.

Remember, weekly candles dont have to fulfill until mid to late week.. Core PCE friday could be a major catalyst..

Spy
Bulls dont like this channel.. we could see 460 By end of summer. That trendline breakout was indeed a fakeout!.

Short term target is 490 gap close
Below that and we head to 482

Falling wedge is showing.. If it can breakover, than 505 ,and MAYBE 508 next up

The overall trend down, Spy cant even get over smaller time frame moving averages, bears could wait for a pop then load at 505 and reload if it touches 509 with a stop out above 510.. Mid may EXP

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Sometimes Double bottoms or double top completions create a Cup or Inverted... The pullback or rally after that cup usually creates a handle... Look at your charts, last week we made a Inverted cup.. Next few days we make a handle for the dump lower

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So dow jones struggling 100sma this morning but 38,000 support holding..
150pt chop range.

Qqq 15min chart..
416.70 gap support

418.50 resistance
Over 418 and 420 comes next.. trendline at 420 so careful longs.

We break below 416 and 415 and gap close likely

Spy will need either dow to push up or qqq

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XLF (Banks)
Banks rebounded last week after XLF bounced off fib support. Fib levels are Ath and 2022 low.
Approaching 50sma right now, a reject here and banks sell again.

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We break 413 on QQQ and 411 incoming
NQ 2hour chart .
16949 next support or 411 qqq

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Iwm 1hour chart..
Fallen wedge breakout.. pump to 199-200 has begun.. short at 200, target 187

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NYA (Nyse) Moves closely with small caps.. Same rounding bottom as the dow.. look for a push back up to 50sma then the next leg down

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Be back on EOD

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No volume .. technical bounce.. no guarantees of a follow through..
Vix 1hour chart bounced off support. Will need to break support to head lower

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Qqq went right to 100sma at 421 and rejected.. first hurdle.. will need volume to breakover

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Good morning... ISM out 15min after open.. will affect Dow and Small caps.

Qqq , Daily 100sma at 421
Weekly 21ema also at 421
421 will be tough.. Over 422 and i like calls for 423.34 gap close.
Support 418.50, 416.00

I wont be on today

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I wouldnt be long here.. .I think cylicals/ Small caps/ Financials will lead the next slide down.. all my upside targets have been met today For NYA,IWM, and Dow..
Qqq stuck at 425 gap resistance..

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Vix sitting on 20sma .. 1hour RSI at 20...
Should bounce here 17.00- 17.50

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Like i said yesterday.. The biggest indicator is Volume.. No volume yesterday and even less today..
This means when the market sells again these levels will get cut through like butter

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SMH (Chip sector)
Reject at 212 or double top necklines.. chips will pullback from here

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XLK
Fighting at 199 gap resistance.. if it cant get over this then QQQ wont break 430.. if it gets over 200 then qqq 433

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XLY (Tsla/Amzn)

Has room to go to 177 .. look for a reject there at double top neck line and 50sma

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Dows not breaking over 38,600 without PCE blessing so it will take tech to push spy higher but QQQ can't get over 430 today..

I think we flush into friday from here

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Spy 1hour chart .
The yellow channel represents the handle on a inverted cup
We could tag 508 and handle still be valid.

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As always, i dont know what Meta earnings will bring to the market; I just trade the technicals .. was busy today, wasnt even going to post but i wanted to share ...Be back on EOD..

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Tomorrow's move on Qqq will depend on Meta of course.. meta beats and this qqq will push to 430-433.. Meta tanks and qqq first tests 100sma at 423, below that 418.50
Gdp numbers will move Dow and cylicals.

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XLC
(GOOGL/Meta)

Correcting back to support.. Major H&S showing

Gapping below 78 support. I expect a gap close of 76.65 By tomorrow

A drop to 72 or trendline support incoming by End of may

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Nq 30min chart small bear flag forming here.. Looking for a move down to 17,300 today or 418.60 gap close for QQQ.. could open up and retest 100sma before the flush down

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Market pivots at vix 17.50
Vix at trendline and fib resistance.. over 17.50 and the market make new lows for the day..

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Dow at 37,800 support
Iwm bounced off 193.70 support..
Qqq bounce at gap 418..
Might not be any new lows today until tomorrow... lets see what happens.. im in all cash until tomorrow .. I'll be back EOD

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Spy daily... bounced harder than i expected. Another day of no volume.. algos set to buy at gap and supports.. All games going into Core pce tomorrow.. 495- or 510 tomorrow...

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510 is trendline resistance and 50sma

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Qqq daily
411 or 433 tomorrow...
Msft and googl report.. if one of them beats and PCE comes in good we pop.. if Core PCE comes in hot earnings wont matter

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Looking ahead Rate decision and monthly Job reports next week.. Lots of money to be made next week.. expecting chop Monday and tuesday , then big swings into friday

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Dow jones daily
Hammer candle here off support and pretty much the Same with NYA
.. was hoping for my inverted Cup and handle.. If NYA breaks over 17,800 then cylicals, small caps and banks will pump

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Spy 15min time frame.. just tagged resistance

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Same 15min chart on QQQ.. this is how u know the algos were the buyers here

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Nq 30min chart..
Immediate reaction after earnings
17,400 or 17,700

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NQ 1hour chart...
Upside is 18,000 or 433 QQQ

Downside is is 17,400 or 418

17,700 is resistance or 430 QQQ

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Spy 2hour chart..

508.50 resistance
506.50 support..
Below 506 and we test 503.
Above 508.50 and 510 comes

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You'll see chop and profit taking from the swingers at the open.. Real move should come after Michigan 5yr inflation 30mins after open

Vix 2hour chart.. either H&S shoulder or falling wedge.. we'll know at 14.90

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Tech sectors opening up at resistance
XLK - (Msft/Aapl)
200.00

XLC - (Googl/Meta)
50sma and trendline resistance

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NYA cant get over 17,800.. bad for cylicals and smallcaps...
So far tech is the prop

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Energy, financials and health all flat or weak... Not good for Dow and IWM...
Another day with no volume.. If they cut off the algos on tech this flushes

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510 spy
433 qqq

Going into Rate decision next week

Then we chop
507-510
429-433
Until wed

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Es 4hour chart here.. i dont like swinging calls here.. everything is closing near resistance

SPY
QQQ
XLK
NQ

with a catalyst any pullback will be small .. 507 support should hold until wed

Nq

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Just look at the closing Volume here.. especially IWM..
Im telling you, when shit hits the fan they will cut thru these levels like cloth.

Catch you'll later ✌

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This post is pretty much up to date so i wont being doing a new spy post until tues-wed.

Just wanted to emphasize a few things i saw that hinting at a bearish week ahead for small caps , banks and cylicals.

Here's NYA (Nyse)
Closed right 17,800 price action resistance and also 20/50 sma..

Dow jones Transportation
3month price action now acting as resistance

Kre (Regional small banks )
Smacked a brick wall , descending triangle

XLF ( Big Banks)
Price closed at resistance also of a broadening wedge.. 41 is tough.. if we break 50sma again we made slide to support or 200sma

Remember the last pump after Fomc and cuck Powell? We wiped it all away.. No matter what happens this week i think May will be bloody.. What would make me change my mind on this? If IWM closes above 200 for the week and NYA closes over 17,800 for the week.

Looking at the DXY( Dollar)
Small bullflag building here for a move to 107.2

Vix bounced off 14.90 (50/200)sma..
Possible falling wedge here..

For tech Here's IXIC (Nasdaq composite)
Price closed right at 16,000 resistance and 20sma.. Bad spot for new longs..

They could fake it up to about 16,150
Or trendline resistance but i doubt it. Unless this brraks over 16,200 or 436 QQQ then its a fake out.. over 16,200 and 440 qqq incoming...

I wont be on until Wed so no updates.. i hope this helps you navigate. I think Iwm and banks are the best short going into the week... Catch you'll later

ContraryTrader

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ContraryTrader

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