SPY: Elliott and NeO Wave Forecast (memento)
Updated
Dear friends,
The bag of market forecasting has torn and in given the situation, there is nothing to be surprised about it. At least, in the next half of the year, the Covid-19 again shuffles and deals cards and it's up to us as well as with bad cards we can play a good round. I am deliberately talking about round because blackjack is still not yet over (Are you scared about ending?). The presented forecast is based on Elliot Wave Principle and NOeWave Theory on SPY. Recently, there have been published many different counts, but which one is the right one? Good question, right? Because the Indexes can be considered as a kind of market averaging, both theory without doubts should be applicable with relatively high accuracy. I also published several ideas of wave counting to forecast market behavior during the Covid-19 crises (exclusively to short), but I must also admit, that so many possibilities make me restless and I'm trying to calm down my conscience and direct my certitude in the right direction. The main difference between the previous one and the presented forecast lies in the application of the NEoWave rules that can be taken as Elliott Wave extension.
The counting and situation are in more detail shown in related graphs. In the black rectangle, there are two options of Fibonacci ratios of price changes in percent for the CYCLE degree (black curve), where the second option seems to be very close to 2.618 and the depicted counted reflect just this situation. The traditional Fibonacci extension in lin and log scale doesn't exhibit meaningful agreement, however, refer to the book Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter, the ratios of price changes expressed in percent have higher informative value compared to the classical approach based on absolute prices.
The red-bordered rectangle shows Fibonacci ratios for SUPER CYCLE degree. However, because the end of the 3rd wave in this degree is not yet known, the corresponding ratio also remains unknown (second line in the rectangle). In terms of basic Elliott theory, the expanding triangle in the 4th correction wave is very likely. More specifically, we are currently in the situation of the last phase of correction, i.e. E wave, that according to the NOeWave rule of Self Definition, cannot take more than 519 days in the worst case. I must note, that the presented specific counting be aware of the NOeWave rule of Logic corresponding to the Running Flat correction, which precedes the elongated 3rd waves (green remarks). Additionally, I have not observed (at the presented degree of counting) any violation of NOeWave rule of Self Definition.
The last thing that I would like to mention is Regular Flat in 2nd correction wave of SUPER CYCLE degree (bloody red color) that according to the NEoWave rule of Logic should not precede the steep impulse corresponding to the 3rd wave. Therefore the scary memento arises: What if the 1st wave is actually part of the 3rd wave and the 2nd wave is actually the 4th wave? That makes sense in both theories and additionally, we are not the owner of completed market data. So how can we know where the starting point of the 1st wave really is? Market and trading itself started very, very long ago and it's hard to say where we are in fact in terms of the absolute position of wave counting theory. However, if we accept this possibility, after the end of SUPER CYCLE, the casino-market will close and the blackjack is over. It will be a long night and when one wakes up the casino will open again with the entry price of 100-150/per share? "Ladies and gentlemen, please come in and enjoy the new game of blackjack"
If you like this idea please leave a comment.
The bag of market forecasting has torn and in given the situation, there is nothing to be surprised about it. At least, in the next half of the year, the Covid-19 again shuffles and deals cards and it's up to us as well as with bad cards we can play a good round. I am deliberately talking about round because blackjack is still not yet over (Are you scared about ending?). The presented forecast is based on Elliot Wave Principle and NOeWave Theory on SPY. Recently, there have been published many different counts, but which one is the right one? Good question, right? Because the Indexes can be considered as a kind of market averaging, both theory without doubts should be applicable with relatively high accuracy. I also published several ideas of wave counting to forecast market behavior during the Covid-19 crises (exclusively to short), but I must also admit, that so many possibilities make me restless and I'm trying to calm down my conscience and direct my certitude in the right direction. The main difference between the previous one and the presented forecast lies in the application of the NEoWave rules that can be taken as Elliott Wave extension.
The counting and situation are in more detail shown in related graphs. In the black rectangle, there are two options of Fibonacci ratios of price changes in percent for the CYCLE degree (black curve), where the second option seems to be very close to 2.618 and the depicted counted reflect just this situation. The traditional Fibonacci extension in lin and log scale doesn't exhibit meaningful agreement, however, refer to the book Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter, the ratios of price changes expressed in percent have higher informative value compared to the classical approach based on absolute prices.
The red-bordered rectangle shows Fibonacci ratios for SUPER CYCLE degree. However, because the end of the 3rd wave in this degree is not yet known, the corresponding ratio also remains unknown (second line in the rectangle). In terms of basic Elliott theory, the expanding triangle in the 4th correction wave is very likely. More specifically, we are currently in the situation of the last phase of correction, i.e. E wave, that according to the NOeWave rule of Self Definition, cannot take more than 519 days in the worst case. I must note, that the presented specific counting be aware of the NOeWave rule of Logic corresponding to the Running Flat correction, which precedes the elongated 3rd waves (green remarks). Additionally, I have not observed (at the presented degree of counting) any violation of NOeWave rule of Self Definition.
The last thing that I would like to mention is Regular Flat in 2nd correction wave of SUPER CYCLE degree (bloody red color) that according to the NEoWave rule of Logic should not precede the steep impulse corresponding to the 3rd wave. Therefore the scary memento arises: What if the 1st wave is actually part of the 3rd wave and the 2nd wave is actually the 4th wave? That makes sense in both theories and additionally, we are not the owner of completed market data. So how can we know where the starting point of the 1st wave really is? Market and trading itself started very, very long ago and it's hard to say where we are in fact in terms of the absolute position of wave counting theory. However, if we accept this possibility, after the end of SUPER CYCLE, the casino-market will close and the blackjack is over. It will be a long night and when one wakes up the casino will open again with the entry price of 100-150/per share? "Ladies and gentlemen, please come in and enjoy the new game of blackjack"
If you like this idea please leave a comment.
Note
Expanding Triangel details:Fibonacci ralations:
21/56 = 0.375 (C wave to A wave)
114/286 = 0.398 (D wave to B wave)
Fibonacci numbers in Individual waves:
wave-A: actual:56, real:55
wave-B: actual:286, real:233/377
wave-C: actual: 21, real: 21
wave-D: actual: 114, real: 89:144
wave-E: actual 55/144 (predicted), real: close to 55/144 (predicted)
So what is the next count of bars for E-wave? Can be again Fibonacci number? And can be again somehow related to the Fibonacci ratio of 0.386? If so, it would be a number of 55 or 144 or some greater? What is your opinion? Please leave the comments.
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