Historical Analysis
Monthly Chart, and historical analysis :
Since 2009, and usually in long bull markets, the volume is decreasing gradually.
There was a one long touch one the Return line (the upper green line) that last for one year (Dec 13 - Dec 14).
In 2015, there was a lot of attempts to break the Resistance level of 212 who finally penetrated in July 2016.
This Up-Brake followed up by Very Bullish rally until Feb 2018, that failed to reach the Return Line.
Since Feb 2018 the SPY is inside big consolidation that Characterized by high volatility.
A First break trough the MUT (Major Trend Line) appeared in Dec 2018, and was a fallse break.
The Price got back to his course.
Additionally, since Feb 2018, the price is far from the Return Line, and does not show strong attempts to reach it - weakness.
The Major Trend Picture is Negative.
Weekly Chart:
On the Weekly Chart, we can Analyze the Consolidation Area more clearly.
As mentioned before, this consolidation Characterized by high volatility.
Huge violent declines occurred during this times and followed by nice rally recoveries.
But still, the effort of the buyers was not enough for take the price aggresivley to the Return Line - the weakness much obvious on the weekley picture.
After the fallse break on Dec 2018, the price made 2 Bottoms on the MUT and reached ATH level at 302.23 with low volume rally.
Daily Chart:
Notice the Resistance Area between 290-294.
Any activity above the Resistance Area is characterized by Low Volume, but compare to that, notice the High Volume on the price reaction to the MUT.
Conclusion :
The Long Term Picture looking Weak and tend to be Negative.
The Trend getting squized between the MUT and The Resistance Area Above it.
In the Minor Trend activity, Any Positive Reversal on the MUT could be very nice long to the Resistance Area or even the ATH.
For The Long Term, i'm looking for another break of the MUT, look for find Shorts there.
Any High Volume Activity above ATH will put this negative long term forecast in doubt.
Since 2009, and usually in long bull markets, the volume is decreasing gradually.
There was a one long touch one the Return line (the upper green line) that last for one year (Dec 13 - Dec 14).
In 2015, there was a lot of attempts to break the Resistance level of 212 who finally penetrated in July 2016.
This Up-Brake followed up by Very Bullish rally until Feb 2018, that failed to reach the Return Line.
Since Feb 2018 the SPY is inside big consolidation that Characterized by high volatility.
A First break trough the MUT (Major Trend Line) appeared in Dec 2018, and was a fallse break.
The Price got back to his course.
Additionally, since Feb 2018, the price is far from the Return Line, and does not show strong attempts to reach it - weakness.
The Major Trend Picture is Negative.
Weekly Chart:
On the Weekly Chart, we can Analyze the Consolidation Area more clearly.
As mentioned before, this consolidation Characterized by high volatility.
Huge violent declines occurred during this times and followed by nice rally recoveries.
But still, the effort of the buyers was not enough for take the price aggresivley to the Return Line - the weakness much obvious on the weekley picture.
After the fallse break on Dec 2018, the price made 2 Bottoms on the MUT and reached ATH level at 302.23 with low volume rally.
Daily Chart:
Notice the Resistance Area between 290-294.
Any activity above the Resistance Area is characterized by Low Volume, but compare to that, notice the High Volume on the price reaction to the MUT.
Conclusion :
The Long Term Picture looking Weak and tend to be Negative.
The Trend getting squized between the MUT and The Resistance Area Above it.
In the Minor Trend activity, Any Positive Reversal on the MUT could be very nice long to the Resistance Area or even the ATH.
For The Long Term, i'm looking for another break of the MUT, look for find Shorts there.
Any High Volume Activity above ATH will put this negative long term forecast in doubt.
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