SP500-SHORT-THE CRASH-PART 2 for AMEX:SPY by FibMarketWatch

remains a STRONG SELL!

This idea is an update to the original idea called SPY-SHORT-BUY PUTS dated July, 2018. The first target of $240 has been successfully hit. The second target of the analysis is $210.

Analysis Method: Wave Theory & Fibonacci

The main potential downside catalysts that have been discussed in the previous analysis are the following:

1. The Fed (Inverting Yields/QE)
2. Brexit (Hard/Soft)
3. Europe (Survive?)
4. Mueller (Constitutional Crisis?)
5. Geo-politics (Supply-chain,Resources)

The stage is set for a major inflection point in human history. We are at the precipitous of the fiat monetary system being severely stressed. And, yes, it might even break. Global QE is unwinding trillions of dollars which will be the primary cause of the coming collapse. Liquidity will freeze.

One of the known negative consequences is that quantitative easing devalues the domestic currency.

What type of Monetary System does the world use?

Fiat money is a currency without intrinsic value that has been established as money, often by government regulation. Fiat money does not have use value, and has value only because a government maintains its value, or because parties engaging in exchange agree on its value.(wiki)

What happens if Europe fails and citizens lose faith in the Euro?

Also, The world is about to take a leap forward in a major way which will be brought to fruition through technology. Life-changing technology such as 5G and Blockchain are the prime examples. These technologies will be so disruptive they will upend most sectors of the economy.

The top technology stocks have generated most of the wealth in the last 10 years, but technology has become largely concentrated which limits innovation.

The FAANG stocks represent more than 50% of the S&P tech sector.’

The core nature of technology is innovation and change. It comes with no surprise that the technology landscape has vastly shifted over the past 10 years. Only 4 of the top 10 Tech companies in 2008 by market cap (Apple, Microsoft, Cisco Systems, and Intel) are in the current top 10 technology firms in 2018. We expect the cycle of disruption to speed up further, making the FAANG stocks unreliable from a long-term perspective. (forbes.com/sites/katinastefanova/2019/01/27/a-toothless-faang/

Hold on...

The World Is Changing!

Review:

Cycle Wave 3/Primary Wave 5 is where we currently are in the wave count. Primary Wave 4 formed an irregular correction called a horizontal triangle which had sub-wave sequences of 5-3-5. This has formed a Higher Wave Bearish Leading Diagonal. Irregular Corrections found in the Wave 4 position imply that the coming 5th wave is likely to be extended.

Please read my previous analysis: SPY-CRASH IMMINENT-UPDATE
Link:

Primary Wave 5 has begun (unless a complex sequence occurs). We currently have a completed micro-wave 1 & 2 of Primary wave 5. The 3rd Wave in the Micro-wave is expected to begin now. Down we go...

Will update.

-AB

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Fib Channel & Fib Time Zone

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Trade active

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15 FEB 19 240 - $.30

1. Buy @ .30
2. Set Sell order @ $.70 (2/3 or Whole Position)

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240 PUT

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As expected Micro-wave 3 of Primary Wave 5 has begun...

Micro-wave 3 target: $255

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Waiting for minuscule sub-wave 5 to break...

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Wave 3 retraced to its 'normal' level of .382.

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Fib Spiral shows relationship of Wave 1 to Wave 3 which can be used for price targets and time-frames.

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15 FEB 19 240 PUT .35 (Current Price)

Plan exit tomorrow.

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Option check: 15 FEB 19 = .36 (Current Price)

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240 PUT

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Still waiting for Minuscule Sub-Wave 5 to break down....

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Looks to be starting now...

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Looks like we will drift down until Apple's earnings...

Whatever Apple's earnings turn out to be, Wave Principles tell us that they will be PERCEIVED negatively.

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Minscule Wave 5 broke it’s .618 extension trigger level...

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Excuse the above comment. That comment was related to the NASDAQ’s current wave count.

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NASDAQ 15 MIN Chart - Wave 5

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SP500 15 MIN shows a leading diagonal...

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A leading diagonal ready to break...

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Option check: $0.35

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If anyone is worried about Apple, don’t. Apple already broke key technical levels.

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View my Apple analysis...

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Watch futures carefully...

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Don’t trust this pop...

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U-Turn inbound...

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Note we are at a spiral intersection...

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Yellow and Red Spirals...

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Complex Correction - ZigZag + Flat

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Option Check: .28

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Reversal in 5, 4, 3,...

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Game over...

Brutal days ahead...

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Trade Talks With China Open in Washington, as Obstacles Abound
The window for negotiations ahead of a March 2 deadline is narrowing.

A person familiar with the negotiations said that there were signs of progress on the first day of talks but that it did not appear that major breakthroughs were imminent on many of the big concessions that the United States was seeking.

The talks come just days after the Justice Department unveiled sweeping charges against Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications giant, and its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou.

Huawei and Ms. Meng are accused of stealing trade secrets, obstructing a criminal investigation and evading United States sanctions on Iran.

One of the biggest questions hanging over the trade talks is whether the United States can truly enforce any deal agreed to by Beijing.

China skeptics in the Trump administration fear that the Chinese will say anything to delay the increase in tariff rates on March 2 and to get Mr. Trump to roll back the tariffs that are already in place. At that point they expect China to wait out the rest of Mr. Trump’s term and hope for a more dovish successor.

“We have seen some crosscurrents and conflicting signals about the outlook,” Mr. Powell said. “Growth has slowed in some major foreign economies

He added, “We’ve seen that in China and in Western Europe.”

google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/01/30/business/us-china-trade-talks-trump-tariffs.amp.html

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Is Hauwei COMPANY A?

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White House preps emergency wall plan while Congress negotiates

Congress has until Feb. 15 to discuss a border security deal, but the White House is already finalizing its plan B — declaring a national emergency.

The White House is finalizing the details of a potential national emergency declaration to secure President Donald Trump's border wall, even as lawmakers are trying to broker an immigration deal that could avert another shutdown in just over two weeks

Trump met with his budget chief, acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, Jared Kushner and other top officials including White House lawyers on Tuesday to walk through the logistics of such a move. And White House aides have been quietly meeting with outside conservative political groups to build support for the president to take such an action. Those talking points, which emphasize Trump’s legal authority, have begun to show up in such conservative media outlets as Breitbart News.
The behind-the-scenes maneuvers indicate that the Trump administration wants to be poised to quickly declare a national emergency, should Trump choose to do so, by the time Congress hits its Feb. 15 deadline to strike a deal before government funding runs out again. And it signals that officials may not have much faith in congressional Republicans to secure the money in the coming weeks that Trump seeks to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Trump himself has said the odds of a congressional deal are “less than 50-50“.

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apple.news/A_tilZ6zNQQS1pXWlTy6QPw

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This is when 'hope' leaves the market...

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Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three. Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend.

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Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish.

Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed.

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Wave 4 retraced to the unusual level of .786 of Wave 3...

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In public, Donald Trump is still talking (and tweeting) about an immigration compromise with Democrats to avert another government shutdown. Behind the scenes, however, the White House is reportedly finalizing plans for the president to declare a national emergency to build his border wall—suggesting either that Trump lacks confidence in Congress to cut a deal, or that he is operating in extremely bad faith.
Most likely, it’s a bit of both. On Tuesday, Trump summoned Acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, senior adviser Jared Kushner, and other administration officials to discuss the logistics of the emergency declaration, according to Politico. The administration has suggested it would prefer not to circumvent Congress, especially since doing so would almost certainly trigger a Constitutional challenge. But Trump’s demands for a wall effectively guarantee that lawmakers will fail to reach an agreement that can satisfy him before the government closes again on February 15.

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In theory, Democrats have more leverage than ever after Trump caved to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and temporarily reopened the government last week. While Democrats have said they are willing to compromise, Pelosi has also been insistent that a physical border wall is out of the question. On Wednesday, Democrats presented a border-security proposal with their opening bid for wall spending: zero

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On Thursday, Trump warned again that he won’t hesitate to pull the trigger. “The Wall is getting done one way or the other!” he tweeted.

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apple.news/AYTwtVvffT3SOUY81-zKtNA

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Price-Action is chasing the horizontal triangle it fell off of...

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Reminder: $282 level must be broke and held to reignite the bull market

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Things to watch:

1. Currency
2. Digital Currency
3. Oil
4. US National Emergency Declaration
5. Mueller
6. Brexit
7. China Trade
8. Geo-politics

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Trump, in Interview, Calls Wall Talks ‘Waste of Time’ and Dismisses Investigations

WASHINGTON — A defiant President Trump declared on Thursday that he has all but given up on negotiations with Congress over his border wall and will proceed without lawmakers even as he dismissed any suggestions of wrongdoing in the investigations that have ensnared his associates.

In an interview in the Oval Office, Mr. Trump called the talks “a waste of time” and indicated he will most likely take action on his own when they officially end in two weeks. At the same time, he expressed optimism about reaching a trade deal with China and denied being at odds with his intelligence chiefs.
“I think Nancy Pelosi is hurting our country very badly by doing what’s she doing and, ultimately, I think I’ve set the table very nicely,” Mr. Trump said. While he would not directly say that he plans to declare a national emergency to build the wall, he added: “I’ve set the table. I’ve set the stage for doing what I’m going to do.”
Addressing a wide range of subjects, Mr. Trump brushed off the investigations that have consumed so much of his presidency, saying that his lawyers have been reassured by the outgoing deputy attorney general, Rod J. Rosenstein, that the president himself was not a target. Mr. Trump said he never spoke with Roger J. Stone Jr., his longtime associate who was indicted last week, about WikiLeaks and the stolen Democratic emails it posted during the 2016 election, nor did he direct anyone to do so.

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Mr. Trump has been considering an emergency declaration to spend money on a wall even without congressional approval, an action that would most likely draw a court challenge, and he said Ms. Pelosi would not be able to stop him. “I’ll continue to build the wall, and we’ll get the wall finished,” he said. “Now whether or not I declare a national emergency — that you’ll see.”

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apple.news/AEP17uWBLSIin8UEnZo6R0Q

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Changing Wave Count...

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Primary Wave 1

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Primary Wave 1 is a bearish leading diagonal...

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Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.

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This is a bear market so flip everything in the previous comment.

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Wave 3 Price-action is very intense and they usually begin in a very sharp fashion...

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Option Roll: 15 FEB 19 240 .10 - 1 MAR 19 .30 = Cost: $.20

Total option cost now: $.50

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We are at an inflection point here...

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Bear Head and Shoulders...

Expecting a violent move down at any moment...

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Price-action touched Horizontal Triangle perfectly...

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Option Check: .28

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1 MAR 19 240 PUT

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Do we continue on Path 1 or has Price-Action already fallen off Path 1?

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Corrected H&S

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Expect to be down big Monday...

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There was a great deal of news this past week about President Trump’s audacious disregard for the advice and warnings from his own intelligence community experts.

Perhaps there’s good reason for alarm.

But I think there’s one shocking aspect — perhaps a larger story — that’s gone virtually unreported. It appears that anonymous intelligence officials are executing an operation against the sitting commander-in-chief. It might not qualify as all-out mutiny, but it’s also not all that far from one.
ADVERTISEMENT

Right under our noses, while still under investigation for allegedly orchestrating leaks and undermining candidate Trump in 2016, some in the intel community are orchestrating leaks and undermining President Trump in 2019.

There’s evidence of the existence of such an operation from the Inspector General, various congressional probes, and investigative reporting. They’ve alleged, and in some cases concluded, that some top intel officials improperly leaked information to the news media and engaged in politically motivated surveillance practices involving multiple Trump associates.

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In the newest press salvo, unnamed intel officials fanned out to air anonymous grievances against their commander-in-chief. They provided details of classified briefings and made inflammatory charges, such as that President Trump is “endangering American security” with his “stubborn disregard” and “willful ignorance.” Disseminating these details, if true, could be seen as assisting our enemies.

Also cause for concern is the media’s role in this operation, whether witting or not. Many in the press dutifully parroted these grievances in one-sided accounts with virtually no counterpoints, as if it’s inconceivable that these intel officials could be capable of flaws or conflicted by political motivations. Some reporters seem to think that “intel,” as distilled and presented by these officials, is somehow beyond question.

In fact, history teaches us the opposite can be true.

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The 9/11 terrorist attacks are perhaps the most dramatic modern example of failures within our intelligence community, and a reason to question intel assessments.

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n the end, President Trump could be right or wrong. And the way he interacts with his intel officials deserves news coverage and scrutiny. But we should refrain from one-sided reporting based on anonymous, orchestrated leaks by people who clearly seek to use the media to sway public and political opinion.

Our intel community — especially today, with its recent conduct under scrutiny — should not be immune from healthy skepticism. These latest press reports are a pretty good indication that, for some intel officials, their operation against the commander-in-chief continues.

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thehill.com/opinion/white-house/428288-intel-operation-against-trump-still-going-strong

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Something struck a raw nerve in this country when 26 agents showed up with automatic weapons drawn in a pre-dawn raid to arrest Roger Stone, terrorizing his deaf wife. Suddenly, all the mumbo jumbo about special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation being objective and focused on national security melted away in the face of a police-state action so completely inexplicable.

There could be no real excuse for such a potentially dangerous, life-threatening action except to use police power for the purpose of intimidation, under the color and cover of law.

Imagine the outcry if 17 vehicles and an amphibious unit had shown up to take one of Hillary Clinton’s aides into custody for lying about whether she had a mail server. Or to pick up disgraced former congressman Anthony Weiner’s laptop. The outrage would have thundered across the country, echoed by the mainstream media. Civil libertarians would have jumped on the bandwagon. Congress would be calling for more supervision and restraints on the power of Mueller and his office.

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The special counsel has enormous power and this arrest is, perhaps, the clearest, most visible sign of its potential abuse. Remember that Mueller was appointed by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein under questionable circumstances and despite Mueller’s own conflicts of interest, having interviewed with Trump for the FBI director job just the day before. He then hired a team filled with Democrats and even lawyers who represented the interests of the Clintons. The discovery of the extreme bias of former FBI officials Lisa Page and Peter Strzok, through their text messages, appears to be the tip of the iceberg rather than the iceberg. Their text messages while they were in Mueller’s employ have gone missing. Yeah. Right.

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Hopefully, the Mueller investigation will now wrap up after two full years. Likely its report will be designed to sow doubt rather than create finality, ignoring that this was all instigated by a fake, discredited dossier. If anyone lied to the FBI and caused the resources of the United States to be wasted, it is Christopher Steele — and yet, there is no evidence that any action is being taken to hold him accountable for the biggest hoax in American history. This is akin, in size and scope, to the Dreyfus affair in France. It may even languish for a while as that case did, but I predict there will be justice eventually for those who falsely created this hit to our democracy and foreign policy.

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thehill.com/opinion/criminal-justice/428195-muellers-abuses-on-view-for-the-world-to-see

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Analysis Target of $210 coming up...

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Should be turning like a light switch momentarily.....

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Yellow is 100 MA
Red is 200 MA

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SP 500 and VIX

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ZigZag's typically retrace to 1.618

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Fib Based Trend Extension 0-A-B

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I was hoping today we would have seen the beginning of the 'big' move....

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We have to be extremely close...

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Stay the course...

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell dined Monday night with President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin at the White House, the central bank said in a statement.

Powell has been a frequent target of criticism by Trump after the central bank raised interest rates four times last year, prompting the president to vent to his advisers about whether he could dismiss the Fed chairman. Trump hadn’t met with Powell since he tapped him to lead the Fed in November 2017. Powell became Fed chairman a year ago.

Powell’s No. 2, Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, also attended the dinner. The Fed said both men joined Trump and Mnuchin at the invitation of the president to discuss the economy.

The Fed said of the dinner that Powell’s “comments in this setting were consistent with his remarks at his press conference of last week. He did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy, except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook.”

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marketwatch.com/story/feds-powell-and-clarida-have-dinner-with-trump-mnuchin-at-white-house-2019-02-04/

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Speaking Friday at a meeting on human trafficking along the U.S.-Mexico border, Trump said he would likely issue an emergency declaration. When asked whether he would do so in his upcoming State of the Union address to members of Congress, he told reporters to "listen closely" to his speech on Tuesday.
"I don't want to say," the president said. "But you'll hear the State of the Union and then you'll see what happens right after the State of the Union."

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apple.news/AKVwqe5G-T4O6_udz09i_qw

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Well, I was shocked when I saw the market this morning...

But, STAY THE COURSE!

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Price-line resting on 1.618 from Trend-Based Extension 0-A-B

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We should only see downside from here...

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100% Confident...

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Cycle Wave 3 Time-frame - 93 days

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Strap your seat belts on ladies and gentlemen...

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Zoom in:

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EMMANUEL MACRON is said to be considering a referendum to address key issues raised by yellow vest protesters, however, critics warn the embattled French President will “have to go” if he loses the vote. The 41-year-old leader is “considering this possibility as a way out of the yellow vest crisis,” a high-ranking government source told Le Journal du Dimanche.

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express.co.uk/news/world/1082301/emmanuel-macron-referendum-yellow-vest-crisis-protest-eu-france-news

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BREXIT WARNING: No-deal to 'tilt Eurozone over THE BRINK' - Andrew Neil's EU analysis

A NO-DEAL Brexit could force the Eurozone into a recession at a time when Theresa May is struggling to secure a divorce deal and leaving the bloc with no agreement is looking increasingly likely, according to Andrew Neil.

The BBC presenter said the Eurozone could be facing its third recession in ten years and a no-deal Brexit could worsen its economic situation at a very vulnerable time. Mr Neil tweeted: “As UK remains focussed on its interminable Brexit debate, the Eurozone is hovering on 3rd recession in 10 years. Made more likely by fiscal and monetary policy tightening into the downturn. "A no deal Brexit could tilt tottering Eurozone over the brink. Will Brussels take notice?”

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google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/1083219/brexit-news-eurozone-economy-andrew-neil-theresa-may/amp

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Cycle Wave 2 Correction over...

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We have an extending sub-wave 3...

It broke 1.618 and 2.618...

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Micro-Wave 1 looks to be extending (retrace<.236)

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Red Box is Trend Based Extension 0-1-2 Levels 1-1.618

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Option Check: 1 MAR 19 240 PUT = .14

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Vix above...

Everything happens in Waves...

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Monday looks like PAIN!

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Reminder: No Strong Support Zones until we reach lows..

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Micro-Wave 1 and 2 look complete

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Dubai (AFP) - The International Monetary Fund on Sunday warned governments to gear up for a possible economic storm as growth undershoots expectations.

"The bottom-line -- we see an economy that is growing more slowly than we had anticipated," IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde told the World Government Summit in Dubai.

Last month, the IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast for this year from 3.7 percent to 3.5 percent.

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Lagarde cited what she called "four clouds" as the main factors undermining the global economy and warned that a "storm" might strike.

The risks include "trade tensions and tariff escalations, financial tightening, uncertainty related to (the) Brexit outcome and spillover impact and an accelerated slowdown of the Chinese economy", she said.

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news.yahoo.com/imf-warns-global-economic-storm-growth-undershoots-143827334.html

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Lagarde also pointed to the risks posed by rising borrowing costs within a context of "heavy debt" racked up by governments, firms and households.

"When there are too many clouds, it takes one lightning (bolt) to start the storm," she said.

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*IMF a ltttle late to the party?

Just now seeing these ‘clouds’? The clouds have been building for literally years...absurd.

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Micro-wave 3 should be starting now...

Red box = Target

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Minuscule Wave 3 extended to approx. 300% of Wave 1

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Reminder: How can we spot the end of a correction? A correction is usually made up of three waves, but the key thing to note is the last wave within a correction should be made up of five waves (for example, if the correction is made up of waves a, b and c, then wave c will be made up of 5 waves). So if you can see a fifth wave finishing on the way down (or Up).

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Then, you are getting close to the end of the correction...

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Well it's hard to time a Market Crash...

But, I would be very surprised if tomorrow is not the beginning...

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1 day 16 Hours - Primary Wave 1 should be near completion...

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Teal Spiral = Minuscule Wave
Green Spiral = Micro-wave

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Option Check: .11

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SP500 v. VIX

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Hold on...

Should be a big day!

Micro-wave 2 tested the .618 retrace level

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judicialwatch.org/press-room/press-releases/judicial-watch-fbi-general-counsel-talked-to-hillary-clintons-lawyer-about-comeys-letter-on-weiner-laptop-clinton-emails/

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(Washington, DC) – Judicial Watch announced today it received 215 pages of records from the U.S. Department of Justice revealing former FBI General Counsel James Baker discussed the investigation of Clinton-related emails on Anthony Weiner’s laptop with Clinton’s lawyer, David Kendall. Baker then forwarded the conversation to his FBI colleagues.

The documents also further describe a previously reported quid pro quo from the Obama State Department offering the FBI more legal attaché positions if it would downgrade a redaction in an email found during the Hillary Clinton email investigation “from classified to something else.”

The newly obtained emails came in response to a May 21 order in a January 2018 Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit filed after the DOJ failed to respond to a December 4, 2017 FOIA request (Judicial Watch v. U.S. Department of Justice (No. 1:18-cv-00154)). Judicial Watch seeks:

All records of communications, including but not limited to, emails, text messages and instant chats, between FBI official Peter Strzok and FBI attorney Lisa Page;
All travel requests, travel authorizations, travel vouchers and expense reports of Peter Strzok.
All travel requests, travel authorizations, travel vouchers and expense reports of Lisa Page.

On October 28, 2016, the day that Comey sent a letter to Congress regarding the FBI’s discovery that the Weiner laptop contained Clinton’s emails. Hillary Clinton’s personal lawyer David Kendall, within hours, emails Baker requesting a call “ASAP” about the Comey letter. Baker describes his follow-up call to senior FBI officials:

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Last month, United States District Judge Royce C. Lamberth ruled that discovery can begin in Hillary Clinton’s email scandal. Obama administration senior State Department officials, lawyers, and Clinton aides will now be deposed under oath. Senior officials — including Susan Rice, Ben Rhodes, and FBI official E.W. Priestap — will now have to answer Judicial Watch’s written questions under oath. The court rejected the DOJ and State Department’s objections to Judicial Watch’s court-ordered discovery plan. (The court, in ordering a discovery plan last month, ruled that the Clinton email system was “one of the gravest modern offenses to government transparency.”)

Judicial Watch’s discovery will seek answers to:

Whether Clinton intentionally attempted to evade the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) by using a non-government email system;
whether the State Department’s efforts to settle this case beginning in late 2014 amounted to bad faith; and
whether the State Department adequately searched for records responsive to Judicial Watch’s FOIA request.

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How do you fix something that is known to be broken (corrupt)?

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*What is STEP ONE?*
*What has to occur?*
*How do your restore faith?*

There is ONLY ONE WAY!

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Accountability & Transparency.

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Reminder:
How many CEOs have been removed from major companies?
How many lawmakers did not seek reelection?
What are the Yellow Vest protestors REALLY protesting?

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Any school teachers here?

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Buy a History book published 50 years ago...

Buy a History book published 30 years ago...

Buy a History book published today...

Facts change?

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WASHINGTON — House and Senate negotiators on Monday night agreed in principle to provide $1.375 billion for fencing and other physical barriers at the Mexican border, part of a broader agreement that would stave off another partial government shutdown without funding President Trump’s wall.

The agreement would allow for 55 miles of new bollard fencing, with some restrictions on location based on community and environmental concerns, according to two congressional aides, who requested anonymity to disclose details of the private negotiations. That is a fraction of the more than 200 miles of steel-and-concrete wall that Mr. Trump demanded — and 10 miles less than negotiators agreed on last summer, before Democrats took control of the House.

The deal, which must still pass the House and the Senate, and secure Mr. Trump’s signature, came together just before Mr. Trump, framed by banners emblazoned with “Finish the Wall” at an event in El Paso, doubled down on his demands.

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*Agreement in Principle*?!

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Current U.S.-China trade negotiations underway this month may yet succeed, but the Chinese already face a new battle front in Washington: the World Bank.

David Malpass, the White House’s just-announced choice to lead the bank, is an outspoken critic of the institution itself and especially of its cozy relationship with the Chinese.

Twice already, Malpass has taken direct aim at the bank’s relationship with Beijing when testifying in front of Congress in his current role as undersecretary of the Treasury for international affairs. Running the bank will give him the ability to implement the reforms to the international lending institution that the Trump administration has been seeking. Malpass, 62, worked in the administrations of both Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush.

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It is expected to be finalized as early as Tuesday, well before the Friday deadline when funding would again lapse for a number of federal agencies. With fears of another damaging shutdown, lawmakers seemed confident that they had the support of party leadership and that Mr. Trump would be willing to sign the agreement.

“We think so,” Senator Richard C. Shelby, Republican of Alabama and the chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, told reporters when asked about the likelihood of the president’s signature. “We hope so.”

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*What is Trump's primary negotiating 'tactic'?

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Flexibility: "I never get too attached to one deal or one approach. For starters, I keep a lot of balls in the air, because most deals fall out, no matter how promising they seem at first." -Quote from The Art of the Deal

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"[W]hen people treat me badly or unfairly or try to take advantage of me, my general attitude, all my life, has been to fight back very hard. The risk is you'll make a bad situation worse, and I certainly don't recommend this approach to everyone. But my experience is that if you're fighting for something you believe in — even if it means alienating some people along the way — things usually work out for the best in the end." - Art of the Deal

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"You can't con people, at least not for long. You can create excitement, you can do wonderful promotion and get all kinds of press, and you can throw in a little hyperbole. But if you don't deliver the goods, people will eventually catch on." - Art of the Deal

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By the way, if anyone truly wants to know what has been going on the past 2 years...

Just check the number of currently sealed indictments in the US...

Compare and Contrast previous years...

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Check FIBMARKETWATCH.COM for additional trades and ideas about the markets!

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When this move breaks...

It will almost certaintly set a record...

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Reaching exhaustion at 1.382 Level (5-A-B)

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Need to watch futures closely...

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I can easily see the market dropping 10% in two days...

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Price action is poor and manic...

We are rallying into Brexit, Gov't Shutdown, Fed doubts...

Logical?

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Well...

We are making it worse on ourselves...

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In the beginning of the analysis, the estimated time-frame of the correction was 210-230 days...

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We are now sitting around 553 days....

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U.S.-China trade talks enter crucial phase before Trump's tariff call

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Beijing - U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are meeting this week for critical talks that could have wide-ranging economic impacts for both countries. President Donald Trump says their outcome will help decide whether he escalates a technology dispute by going ahead with a March 2 tariff hike on $200 billion of imports from China.
However, two days of talks starting Thursday allow too little time to resolve the war over Beijing's technology ambitions that threatens to drag on weakening global economic growth, businesspeople and economists said. But they also believe China's goal is to make enough progress to persuade Mr. Trump to extend his deadline.

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The two sides are showing few signs of movement on the thorniest issue: Washington's demand that Beijing scale back its efforts to nurture world leaders in robotics and other technologies. China's trading partners say the state support for industries violates Beijing's market-opening obligations, and some American officials worry they might erode U.S. industrial leadership.

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AHHH

When will the endless complex sequences STOP?!?!?!?

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Dreamworld...

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Market Players: "Yes, let's buy, buy, buy a market that has 20 negative downside catalyst to 1 upside catalyst" ]

Reminder:
1. YIELDS - Quantitative Manipulation
1. China
2. Corporate Debt
3. Europe
4. Brexit

Bad Dream...

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Yields and China are tied at the pole position...

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How much Debt worldwide has negative yields?

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FLASHBACK: cnbc.com/2016/06/29/there-are-now-117-trillion-dollars-worth-of-bonds-with-negative-yields.html

The level of negative-yielding global debt is continuing its climb into the stratosphere.

Following the turmoil of the British vote to leave the European Union and the desire for the safety of government bonds, the amount has jumped to $11.7 trillion. That's a 12.5 percent increase since the end of May, according to a Fitch Ratings report Wednesday.

What's more, the holders of such bonds are willing to hang onto them for even longer, which Fitch said was the biggest factor in the increase. The total of negative-yielding debt with maturities of seven years or longer has swelled to $2.6 trillion, nearly double the amount in April.

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The $7.9 Trillion Pile of Negative-Yielding Debt Is Growing Fast

For all the hand wringing over the end of ultra-loose monetary policy, the world just doesn’t seem able to shake its addiction to negative-yielding debt.

Only two months ago, speculation was rife that the Bank of Japan would have to step in to stop yields from rising. Now, rates on benchmark bonds are poised to drop back below zero. In Germany there are no positive yields as far as seven years along the curve. And globally, bonds with negative yields total $7.9 trillion -- close to levels seen at the start of the year -- and up from the 2017 low of $5.7 trillion reached in October.

Bonds are back in demand after a sea change in sentiment swept financial markets in recent weeks as the outlook for growth decisively worsened.

“I expect the global economy to be substantially worse in 2019 than this year,’’ said Akira Takei, global fixed income manager in Tokyo at Asset Management One Co., which oversees the equivalent of $500 billion. “The recent drops in bond yields and equities reflect such outlook. Investor views are also changing on the U.S. as an end of the current policy tightening is coming into sight.”

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bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-18/japan-yields-on-cusp-of-zero-as-world-can-t-quit-negative-rates

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Pink = SP500

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Anyone got a guess what the Red line is?

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Red = Crypto Market Cap

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Really like what I'm seeing here...

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Records are about to be broken...

Trade active

22 FEB 19 234

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.01-.02

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screenshots.firefox.com/TTXl3FQWEko2Cfqa/www.optionsprofitcalculator.com

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22 FEB 19 241
22 FEB 19 249

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Each white X represents a new complex sequence...

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I'm counting 5 complex sequences...

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Counting a WAVE SEQUENCE in 1D:1M....

5 Waves + ABC

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Look how bad this price-action is?

Who keeps pumping?

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Looks like Crypto...

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You will know when Wave 3 Starts...

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Selling will be more severe than December...

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GROCERY sales might have been performing reasonably well, but for Scottish retail as a whole, December 2018 was the worst since the global financial meltdown of 2008.

Adjusted for inflation at 0.3%, figures from the Scottish Retail Consortium and KPMG found that retail sales for the five weeks between 25 November and 29 December decreased by 1.3%. This was the lowest figure since the Scottish Retail Sales Monitor began in 1999.

Non-food sales fared far worse, decreasing by 2.8% compared to December 2017.

Ewan MacDonald-Russell, head of Policy & External Affairs at the SRC said: “There was little Christmas cheer for retailers with the worst real term December sales figures in twenty years.

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scottishgrocer.co.uk/2019/02/01/worst-scottish-christmas-in-20-years/

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Retail foot traffic falls again in January following worst December on record

Foot traffic fell 4 per cent in the first week of January, year on year, and 1.8 per cent in the second week, taking traffic down 3 per cent for the first half of the month after a 10.7 per cent fall in January 2018, according to ShopperTrak data.

This followed an unprecedented 12.2 per cent year on year fall in December – 15 per cent in the week ending December 23 and 23 per cent in the last week of December – crunching sales at discretionary retailers in the most important month of the retail calendar as online promotions such as Black Friday pulled forward sales from December and shoppers shaken by falling house prices eschewed the shops.
afr.com/business/retail/retail-foot-traffic-falls-again-in-january-following-worst-december-on-record-20190122-h1acvh

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JP Morgan is rolling out the first US bank-backed cryptocurrency to transform payments business

Engineers at the lender have created the "JPM Coin," a digital token that will be used to instantly settle transactions between clients of its wholesale payments business.
Only a tiny fraction of payments will initially be transmitted using the cryptocurrency, but the trial represents the first real-world use of a digital coin by a major U.S. bank.
While J.P. Morgan's Jamie Dimon has bashed bitcoin as a "fraud," the bank chief and his managers have consistently said blockchain and regulated digital currencies held promise.

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FLASHBACK:
A “fraud” it may be, but Bitcoin could reach $100,000 before it collapses says J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon.

Appearing at a CNBC/Institutional Investor Delivering Alpha conference in New York Tuesday, the executive reiterated his dark view on cryptocurrencies in general, saying that “It’s not a real thing.” That came just moments after the CEO called Bitcoin a “fraud” at a Barclays event earlier in the day.

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fortune.com/2017/09/12/jamie-dimon-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-fraud-buy/

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Sub-wave extension trigger broke...

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Here comes Cycle Wave 3

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Dream World is about to be shattered...

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20 Minutes until next leg lower...

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Good entry point for some options...

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Jamie Dimon: Crypto is a Fraud

Jamie Dimon: 6 Months later, developing JPM coin

EXACTLY THE BS THAT NEEDS TO GO...

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Short JPM!

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Note the Ultimate Osc. Divergence

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Yellow = 300,600,900
Green = 30,60,90

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Expanding Leading Diagonal?

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2.618 Fib Time Marker will be significant...

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Should be seeing a large drop here....

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About to hit 2.618 Fib Time Marker...

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We have hit the 2.618 Fib Time Marker...

Should see an acceleration down...

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BOOM

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Analysis will be correct!

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Declaration of National Emergency

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will be declared by Trump...

Confirmed.

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cnbc.com/2019/02/14/trump-decides-whether-to-sign-border-security-deal-to-avoid-shutdown.html

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Trump will sign spending bill and declare a national emergency, Mitch McConnell says

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President Donald Trump will sign spending legislation to prevent a government shutdown and declare a national emergency to build his proposed border wall, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Thursday.

"He's prepared to sign the bill, he will also be issuing a national emergency declaration at the same time," the Kentucky Republican said as the chamber prepared to vote on a measure to keep the government open past a midnight Friday deadline.

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President Donald Trump will sign a border security bill to avert a government shutdown as well as declare a national emergency to fund his wall.

The White House said he would sign the bill as promised, but also take action to bypass Congress and use military funds for a US-Mexico border wall.

Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell announced the plan just before the chamber voted on the compromise bill.

Congress must first pass the bill before it is signed by the president.

"The President is once again delivering on his promise to build the wall, protect the border, and secure our great country," White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said in a statement on Thursday.

She added he would "take other executive action - including a national emergency - to ensure we stop the national security and humanitarian crisis at the border".

The compromise legislation includes 1.3bn (£1bn) in funding for border security, including physical barriers, but it does not allot money towards Mr Trump's wall.

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bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47247726

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Nancy Pelosi, the Democrat House speaker, said she may launch a legal challenge and warned the move would create “great unease and dismay” among her party.

“It is not an emergency, what is happening at the border,” Ms Pelosi said, calling the claim an “illusion”.

She insisted that the constitution gave the “power of the purse” to Congress, appearing to question whether Mr Trump was overstepping his powers.

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news.yahoo.com/donald-trump-declare-national-emergency-204220940.html

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Here comes the Constitutional Crisis?

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Video: cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/02/14/mcconnell-trump-sign-spending-bill-declare-national-emergency-border-wall-sot-nr-vpx.cnn

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If you followed my first SPY Analysis, I discussed this topic in great length.

Please Re-read previous analysis.

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JPM Short Trade @ FibMarketWatch.com

*Site Still under-construction please excuse any glitches...

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The decision for Trump to declare a national emergency left lawmakers in a familiar pattern: Being asked to react to something the president will do while largely in the dark themselves about the details. = Trump MO

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apple.news/A275G9X5YQlGf0Q5HEWTpxQ

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Makes total since to rally into a National Emergency...

Inverting Yields

Incapable Fed

US Gov't can't even function

Europe is experiencing a severe slow down...

I'm about to throw the RED CARD

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Hedge Funds Blew up...

Who is the marginal buyer?

Corporations?

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Earnings Forecast are coming down...

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FLASHBACK: Hedge fund closures have dropped to a level not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis.

A total 125 funds liquidated during the three months through June, down 44 percent from the same period last year. It was the lowest number of hedge fund closures since the third quarter of 2007, according to a Hedge Fund Research report Thursday.

The data tracker said hedge fund assets climbed to a record $3.24 trillion at the end of June, after firms started more new funds than they closed in the first six months of this year. Managers navigated global trade tensions and slowing economic growth outside the U.S. to produce average returns of 1.75 percent during the first eight months of 2018, according to HFR.

institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1b1bd9jlh7jxp/Hedge-Fund-Closures-Plummet-to-Pre-Crisis-Level

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Hedge fund liquidations in the third quarter exceeded launches for the first time in four quarters, according to data released Wednesday by Hedge Fund Research.

Hedge fund closures totaled 174 in the three-month period ended Sept. 30, compared to 125 in the previous quarter and 137 in third quarter 2017.

The last time HFR analysis showed hedge fund closures topping launches was in the second quarter 2017 when 222 funds shut down and 180 funds started trading.

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barrons.com/articles/whats-making-hedge-funds-weep-1543410000

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Gap up again...

?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!

But, we should see a reversal right about now...

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Anyone that thinks a Bull Market is returning I would suggest to research the last financial decade...

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Super Mil Cycle in my opinion is over...

Bear Market in SP500 beginning for awhile...

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Cycle Wave 1 & 2...

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Bankers (Central) are starting to lose control of the ship...

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Crash <60 days

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Top?

I think so...

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Democrats are seizing on a bombshell New York Times report as further evidence that President Trump may have sought to obstruct justice in investigations of his campaign and administration.
The Times reported Tuesday that the president asked then-acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker late last year to put U.S. Attorney Geoffrey Berman in charge of the investigation into Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen. Cohen pleaded guilty last year to bank fraud, tax fraud and making hush payments to women alleging that they had affairs with Trump.

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Here we go folks...

Grab the popcorn...

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We have a big show line up...

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Show:

Trade Talks With China Continue, As Trump Shies From A Hard Deadline For A Deal

Talks between U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators continue this week in Washington, after discussions last week in Beijing did not yield a deal. Higher level meetings are slated to begin Thursday and continue through the end of the week.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He to continue the negotations.

On Tuesday, President Trump called the talks "very complex."

"I think the talks are going very well," he told reporters.

A big jump in tariffs is due on March 2, following a March 1 deadline imposed by Trump. Without a deal by that date, tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese products would go from 10 percent to 25 percent.

But Trump seemed to back away from a hard deadline, saying that March 1 "is not a magical date."

Prediction: No Deal by March 1st

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Source: npr.org/2019/02/20/696343041/trade-talks-with-china-continue-as-trump-shies-from-a-hard-deadline-for-a-deal

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Show 2

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President Trump is seeking a new trade deal with the European Union, and has threatened tariffs targeting European vehicle exports to the U.S. And make no mistake: Those tariffs will translate into higher costs that will end up hitting consumers hardest.

Any such tariffs would also put significant strain on Volkswagen specifically, as the company invests billions of dollars in overhauling its lineup with all-new fully electric vehicles in the next few years, which itself was decided in the wake of the company’s Diesel-gate scandal in Europe and America.

We’ll just have to wait and see where President Deals decides to settle with Europe.

Prediction: Impose Auto Tariffs

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Show 3:

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Lyft IPO - Wall Street still interested in companies that aren't even profitable?

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Quick Chart:

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VXXB - Option Trade @ FibMarketWatch.com

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Daily Fib Time Marker 22 FEB 19

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Fib Time is a specific point (Period) in time based on Fibonacci sequences...

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Micro Wave Count:

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VXXB - Wave Sequence (Teal)

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5th Wave Extended

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Fib Time Day

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Expect Significant reversal or breakout...

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How much of US GDP is China Trade?

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What happened during earnings season? Downward Revisions...

What keeps breaking about every day....

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Examples:
forbes.com/sites/betsyatkins/2019/02/19/corporate-culture-problems-at-snap-inc-what-should-their-board-do-about-it/amp/

Parry ran Live Nation Productions, the TV and film arm of the touring conglomerate, for three years. In December, Variety reported that Live Nation’s human resources department had been repeatedly warned that Parry was verbally abusing her subordinates. Parry also was accused of using offensive slurs in the office and denigrating African-Americans. She denied ever using discriminatory language, and apologized for any hurt she may have caused, saying it was unintentional.

Parry was put on leave on Dec. 21, as Live Nation hired an outside firm, Paul Hastings LLP, to conduct an investigation. The investigator, Elena Baca, interviewed numerous current and former employees, who in many cases restated allegations they had already made to the company’s HR department. Baca also seemed intent on ferreting out leakers, asking several employees to identify who had recorded an internal meeting and who had hijacked the company’s Twitter feed to attack Parry and CEO Michael Rapino.
variety.com/2019/film/news/heather-parry-fired-live-nation-productions-1203112172/amp/

thestreet.com/markets/autonation-new-ceo-earnings-miss-14874930

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Have a great weekend!

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Reminder: The Trade

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Short SP500/ Long Crypto

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coingeek.com/university-michigan-endowment-plans-back-crypto-venture-fund/

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University of Michigan endowment plans to back Crypto Venture Fund

The University of Michigan’s $12 billion endowment plan intends to siphon more of its funds in a “crypto network technology fund” (CNK Fund I), managed by American venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz.

According to a document released on Feb 21 by the University’s Board of Regents, the endowment had already committed $3 million to the CNK Fund I last year in June. The document states that this amount has been approved and unspecified amount will follow at a future date.

The crypto network fund is managed by Andreessen Horowitz, the Menlo Park-headquartered venture capital firm also known as a16z. According to Kevin Hegarty, the chief financial officer at the state-run educational institution, the fund was created to invest in crypto technology across the spectrum of seed, growth stage opportunities, and venture.

The document outlines the reasons behind Andreessen Horowitz decision to create a dedicated fund for crypto was primarily because “crypto has become an important area of innovation and entrepreneurship that warrants focused attention.” The document adds that crypto has become “a distinct type of technology by entrepreneurs, funding sources, and developers.”

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Yale First into Cryptocurrency Fund

Yale University took a plunge into the crypto world with a $30 billion investment into their Paradigm fund. Formed by Fred Ehrsam, the co-founder of Coinbase, Yale’s Paradigm fund investment is the first among from education sector. Other prominent universities including Harvard, Standford and MIT now are following Yale investing into crypto-related projects. Some of the traditional big names taking a plunge into crypto and blockchain ventures include Charles Noyes and Matt Huang. Each has experience in this industry having followed Sequoia Capital, Pantera Capital, and Coinbase.

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Major Ivy League Institutions Follow

Recent published reports claim major Ivy League institutions are investing in at least one of the virtual currency funds. The new additions to the list are the University of Carolina, and Dartmouth College. The report says that investment by the high-profile schools and educational institutions in cryptocurrency funds represents a move towards global adoption. Until now, most of the institutional investors in the cryptocurrency sectors have been from large-scale banks like JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs. But the investment by Harvard and Yale may renew the interest of investors in the crypto world once again and reverse the current bearish trend.

Harvard overseas a $39.2 billion endowment – by far the largest of any educational institution in the world. Including Stanford and MIT, all the universities moving into crypto investing are in the top twenty-five of the largest educational endowments. Knowing the importance of participation from institutional investors, Voyager announced the launch of a platform called Voyager Institutional that will serve only institutional investors. According to a press report, the platform will “focus solely on delivering a crypto trading solution to professional investors. The release describes Voyager Institutional as “best-in-class. It will specifically target traditional buy-side firms, hedge funds, brokerages and market makers”.

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Yale - Harvard - MIT - Standford

-All invested in Crypto

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cryptocoinreporter.com/harvard-standford-mit-invest-cryptocurrency-fund/

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Reminder the trade:

SPY V. Total Crypto Market

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9 Weeks of Agony...

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Relief inbound?

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We have a severe Fib Spiral intersection here

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Should be a hell of a VIX spike here...

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VIX is red

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Crypto Market Blue

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So we just entered a new Fib Time Period 2-3...

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It goes down 5x faster than it goes up...

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Got it...

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Prediction: Trump imposes Tariffs on March 1st...

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Technically, the picture keeps getting worse...

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Cycle Wave wave 2 has retaced a little over 78.6%...

The key point to remember here is Wave 2 can never go higher than the beginning of wave 1. Thus, your stop loss order will have to be placed a few tics below the high or low for wave 1. This allows you to determine in advance what your maximum loss is going to be for this trade. Once you have reasonably satisfied yourself that wave 2 is very near its completion point, you will have to take a bold stance, (which includes the ability and willingness to suffer a small loss), and enter the market.

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How can you know that the third wave has started? You will see prices moving up suddenly and swiftly. When you look at the chart, you can immediately see that the third wave is steeper than the first wave. Volume will typically increase during the third wave. Sometimes, a trader goes long very close to the bottom of wave 2, and prices start going up. However, he sees that the price is moving up rather slowly. So he starts getting all nervous. Suppose there is an economic news release that affects his market. He might even see the prices coming down instead of going up. Occasionally, it will go below the level he went long, and the panicked trader will cut his position immediately, because he can’t bear to see what will happen next. But so long as the bottom of the prior wave 1 was not violated, it often turns out that the economic news merely served to shake off weak traders such as our friend. Two or three minutes after he cuts his position, the market will abruptly turn around, and race lower, and in a matter of a few hours, will be close to the profit target that the trader had originally planned for.

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It is precisely because of the regular occurrence of the above described scenario that I am urging readers to place their stops below wave 1, and not look at the position for a while, especially if there is economic news in the way.

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Trust Wave Theory....

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