SPY to go down until Dec 31st or Jan. 31, then back up ...
All the weekly indicators are showing a downward movement since July 31, 2023 (approx.)
I anticipate the downward movement will hit the Fibonacci level of 1.618 by Dec. 31st or Jan. 31. I highly doubt we will hit the Fibonacci level of 2.618 since we have been on a slow decline of the market since Jan, 2022 and hitting 2.618 would be too much of a drop by Dec. 31st.
I would suspect that the target point would be by Dec. 31st but every month since July, 2023 we have been declining about 25 points every month. So to hit the target of 1.618 (279.76), that would take us to the end of January which is why I gave a monthly range of December to January when the SPY will hit the target.
After we have hit the 1.618 Fibonacci level, the market will go back up for a few months. (Apparently, the market on average has seasonal moves during the year and goes down in the fall and up in the beginning months of the year.)
Remember, the 1929 drop was NOT the end of the drop or the largest part of the drop. The SPX embarked on a longer, steady slide from approx July 1930 to July 1932 where it dropped about 90% in less than 3 years. During that time, the market dropped for a few months, then went back up for another few months.
These market conditions will resemble the (approx) 1870's drop in the market. If you talk to any of your grandparents, the 1930s were nothing compared to the market conditions in the late 1800s where it was an inflationary environment. I volunteered at a local senior's lunch and I asked them questions about the 30s and they all said, it was nothing compared to the The Greater Depression experienced in the late 1800s.
The March 2020 point would represent the drop/point in Dec, 1929 and the Jan 2022 would represent the high experienced in May 1930 before the slow decline.
I am just learning more about the indicators, but right now these are the indicators I use and I don't know alot about them except from what I can interpret from previous market conditions and how the indicators have reacted.
Please manipulate the chart so you can see more detail. I will try to make my charts larger in the future.
Good luck trading to all and please use your own discretion to trade the market.
I anticipate the downward movement will hit the Fibonacci level of 1.618 by Dec. 31st or Jan. 31. I highly doubt we will hit the Fibonacci level of 2.618 since we have been on a slow decline of the market since Jan, 2022 and hitting 2.618 would be too much of a drop by Dec. 31st.
I would suspect that the target point would be by Dec. 31st but every month since July, 2023 we have been declining about 25 points every month. So to hit the target of 1.618 (279.76), that would take us to the end of January which is why I gave a monthly range of December to January when the SPY will hit the target.
After we have hit the 1.618 Fibonacci level, the market will go back up for a few months. (Apparently, the market on average has seasonal moves during the year and goes down in the fall and up in the beginning months of the year.)
Remember, the 1929 drop was NOT the end of the drop or the largest part of the drop. The SPX embarked on a longer, steady slide from approx July 1930 to July 1932 where it dropped about 90% in less than 3 years. During that time, the market dropped for a few months, then went back up for another few months.
These market conditions will resemble the (approx) 1870's drop in the market. If you talk to any of your grandparents, the 1930s were nothing compared to the market conditions in the late 1800s where it was an inflationary environment. I volunteered at a local senior's lunch and I asked them questions about the 30s and they all said, it was nothing compared to the The Greater Depression experienced in the late 1800s.
The March 2020 point would represent the drop/point in Dec, 1929 and the Jan 2022 would represent the high experienced in May 1930 before the slow decline.
I am just learning more about the indicators, but right now these are the indicators I use and I don't know alot about them except from what I can interpret from previous market conditions and how the indicators have reacted.
Please manipulate the chart so you can see more detail. I will try to make my charts larger in the future.
Good luck trading to all and please use your own discretion to trade the market.
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