SPY heading into Bear Market territory
I am inventing a new term for January-March
I will call it a Bi-Polar 3 black crows.
The usual black crows have a large body and small wicks. The bodies on these candles are mostly within bounds to be considered black crows and are fairly large, but the wicks are massive towards the downside. One would normally consider a large wick to be a slightly bullish indicator, but this is not at all the case in our scenario. That is why I call it a Bi-Polar 3 black crows. The market is split on its call, so much hope in media and "buy the dip" mentality as well as patriotism "Russia's economy is crashing, that means ours will thrive" Of course we are in a global economy, War is bad for business (And more importantly lives), sanctions impact us all. The Bears know this and have shoved hard to the downside.
These giant wicks mean that bears pushed the price lower and bears bought it up, yet it looks like at the end of March we may end up lower after all. For this to happen it means a tremendous amount of effort was spent by bulls buying that dip. A lot of powder was used and it seems that the bulls were pushed down anyway. Bulls are losing steam while bears are driving.
With Inflation continually rising, uncertainty with Russia (a major exporter of Oil & Fertilizer) expect to see rapid inflation of critical middle class goods. We are not a yacht economy, the everyday person will feel this squeeze and will need stop investment or even worse sell into a bear market to pay bills.
Can we really expect the money printer to be turned back on? I am thinking it will be politically infeasible, especially after the last round of printing seemed to benefit the corporate lobby more than blue collar workers. I am not trying to be to political, but it appears to me that with rising prices the idea of turning on the printer will be met with much skepticism. It looks like austerity is going to be the method chosen to resolve this crisis.
I expect we will stay in this blue channel for a while as we perform a retracement from our "Covid-Bull-Market"
I Consider the white line to be the white flag for the bulls. If we hit that target SPY will have dropped 20% which is the official signal for a bear market.
This is all tea leaves. Good luck to everyone.
I will call it a Bi-Polar 3 black crows.
The usual black crows have a large body and small wicks. The bodies on these candles are mostly within bounds to be considered black crows and are fairly large, but the wicks are massive towards the downside. One would normally consider a large wick to be a slightly bullish indicator, but this is not at all the case in our scenario. That is why I call it a Bi-Polar 3 black crows. The market is split on its call, so much hope in media and "buy the dip" mentality as well as patriotism "Russia's economy is crashing, that means ours will thrive" Of course we are in a global economy, War is bad for business (And more importantly lives), sanctions impact us all. The Bears know this and have shoved hard to the downside.
These giant wicks mean that bears pushed the price lower and bears bought it up, yet it looks like at the end of March we may end up lower after all. For this to happen it means a tremendous amount of effort was spent by bulls buying that dip. A lot of powder was used and it seems that the bulls were pushed down anyway. Bulls are losing steam while bears are driving.
With Inflation continually rising, uncertainty with Russia (a major exporter of Oil & Fertilizer) expect to see rapid inflation of critical middle class goods. We are not a yacht economy, the everyday person will feel this squeeze and will need stop investment or even worse sell into a bear market to pay bills.
Can we really expect the money printer to be turned back on? I am thinking it will be politically infeasible, especially after the last round of printing seemed to benefit the corporate lobby more than blue collar workers. I am not trying to be to political, but it appears to me that with rising prices the idea of turning on the printer will be met with much skepticism. It looks like austerity is going to be the method chosen to resolve this crisis.
I expect we will stay in this blue channel for a while as we perform a retracement from our "Covid-Bull-Market"
I Consider the white line to be the white flag for the bulls. If we hit that target SPY will have dropped 20% which is the official signal for a bear market.
This is all tea leaves. Good luck to everyone.
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