4/6 Watchlist + Notes
Initial Thoughts: Incredible day, markets closed friday, minimal inside day setups
SPY - Mentioned yesterday that we were bearish going into today for a number of reasons. Early on in the session we saw SPY push up slightly only to be rejected by a downward trend line created in premarket. We hit our downside target at the mid 406 level and even pushed lower than that before making an afternoon reversal. We also hit our lower trend line on the broadening formation created yesterday on the daily. Overall played out perfectly, only could have asked for more downside to 404 if anything
TOMORROW: Due to how we closed and previous daily patterns similar to the one we're in now, I am still slightly bearish going into tomorrow, but I think we need to be cautious. With this week being a 4 day trading week, and being at the beginning of a potential daily/weekly reversal point, I think we could see some consolidation just as easily as we could see more downside. Full disclosure, I am not extremely confident in us seeing more downside tomorrow, but it makes the most sense based on our situation. Ideally I would like to see a move lower to the 404 area before consolidating. OVERALL BIAS: Cautiously Bearish
Watchlist + Bias:
BABA 2-1 Daily: Slightly Bearish (Only inside day to show up on the scanner)
SQ - 3-1 Weekly: Neutral (Still has not broken out)
DOCU - 1-1-2D Weekly: Bearish (Finally broke out of inside week setup. Watching for continuation going into tomorrow and next week)
SHOP - 50% Rule Weekly: Bearish (Finally saw the downside we wanted the other day due to a failed 2U reversal today. Looking to see SHOP hit 44.01 between tomorrow and next week)
Main Watch:
SQ - Not a crazy good setup, but definitely interested with the weekly chart. We still remain within our inside week setup. I am watching tomorrow to see if we can breakout in either direction to pick up a swing position for next week. I would prefer downside due to my bias with SPY, but I will be open to playing upside as well since SQ is set up to do well in either direction. It is worth noting we made a failed 2D on the daily, which gives us a small bullish bias for tomorrow on SQ, but the past 4 days have been failed 2s, so that may be irrelevant. Entry Long: above 68.24. Upside Targets: 69.74, 70.53, 72.64. Entry Short: Under 66.62 Downside Targets: 65.81, 64.56, 63.51, 61.55
Yesterday's Main Watch:
DOCU: What a solid trade. Opened at our short entry, and then dropped steadily throughout the day until reversing with SPY. Cons ran well over 400% from entry (.21 -> 1.06 If I remember correctly). I hope you all can take this play and learn from it, specifically how powerful trades can be if you have a crazy setup like we did with the double inside week. Hope everyone was able to make some money on this one.
Watchlist Stats:
3/3 SPY predictions
3/4 Main Watch Plays
Top Winner: DOCU (400%+)
Personal Stats:
2/3 On The Week
Overall: Green
- Completely turned the week around for myself after being barely red from monday's session. I credit this to patience and discipline. Most traders would be super eager to start trading again after a losing day. Having patience and waiting for that right trade to turn things around is absolutely key to mastering emotions and being successful in trading. All it takes is 1 good trade per day. Don't overtrade (I know it is very easy to do, and I used to struggle with this), have patience, and most importantly, be comfortable with taking losses, not conditioned to taking losses.
Tomorrow will be tricky if I had to guess. Trade smart, and be careful as it is the end of the trading week. And if I am unable to make monday's watchlist until later this weekend, enjoy the holiday for those who celebrate it!
SPY - Mentioned yesterday that we were bearish going into today for a number of reasons. Early on in the session we saw SPY push up slightly only to be rejected by a downward trend line created in premarket. We hit our downside target at the mid 406 level and even pushed lower than that before making an afternoon reversal. We also hit our lower trend line on the broadening formation created yesterday on the daily. Overall played out perfectly, only could have asked for more downside to 404 if anything
TOMORROW: Due to how we closed and previous daily patterns similar to the one we're in now, I am still slightly bearish going into tomorrow, but I think we need to be cautious. With this week being a 4 day trading week, and being at the beginning of a potential daily/weekly reversal point, I think we could see some consolidation just as easily as we could see more downside. Full disclosure, I am not extremely confident in us seeing more downside tomorrow, but it makes the most sense based on our situation. Ideally I would like to see a move lower to the 404 area before consolidating. OVERALL BIAS: Cautiously Bearish
Watchlist + Bias:
BABA 2-1 Daily: Slightly Bearish (Only inside day to show up on the scanner)
SQ - 3-1 Weekly: Neutral (Still has not broken out)
DOCU - 1-1-2D Weekly: Bearish (Finally broke out of inside week setup. Watching for continuation going into tomorrow and next week)
SHOP - 50% Rule Weekly: Bearish (Finally saw the downside we wanted the other day due to a failed 2U reversal today. Looking to see SHOP hit 44.01 between tomorrow and next week)
Main Watch:
SQ - Not a crazy good setup, but definitely interested with the weekly chart. We still remain within our inside week setup. I am watching tomorrow to see if we can breakout in either direction to pick up a swing position for next week. I would prefer downside due to my bias with SPY, but I will be open to playing upside as well since SQ is set up to do well in either direction. It is worth noting we made a failed 2D on the daily, which gives us a small bullish bias for tomorrow on SQ, but the past 4 days have been failed 2s, so that may be irrelevant. Entry Long: above 68.24. Upside Targets: 69.74, 70.53, 72.64. Entry Short: Under 66.62 Downside Targets: 65.81, 64.56, 63.51, 61.55
Yesterday's Main Watch:
DOCU: What a solid trade. Opened at our short entry, and then dropped steadily throughout the day until reversing with SPY. Cons ran well over 400% from entry (.21 -> 1.06 If I remember correctly). I hope you all can take this play and learn from it, specifically how powerful trades can be if you have a crazy setup like we did with the double inside week. Hope everyone was able to make some money on this one.
Watchlist Stats:
3/3 SPY predictions
3/4 Main Watch Plays
Top Winner: DOCU (400%+)
Personal Stats:
2/3 On The Week
Overall: Green
- Completely turned the week around for myself after being barely red from monday's session. I credit this to patience and discipline. Most traders would be super eager to start trading again after a losing day. Having patience and waiting for that right trade to turn things around is absolutely key to mastering emotions and being successful in trading. All it takes is 1 good trade per day. Don't overtrade (I know it is very easy to do, and I used to struggle with this), have patience, and most importantly, be comfortable with taking losses, not conditioned to taking losses.
Tomorrow will be tricky if I had to guess. Trade smart, and be careful as it is the end of the trading week. And if I am unable to make monday's watchlist until later this weekend, enjoy the holiday for those who celebrate it!
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