$SPY - Monthly outlook, Bearish Bias
Updated
SPY.
Monthly chart.
let's just say, it'll get worse, a lot worse, before it can get better.
selling momentum JUST picked up.
as in, we haven't seen real selling pressure ,real blood pouring out yet.
this is from the point of view of Monthly. Daily chart we may retest 387- 398 area first as a Bull Trap before further drop.
best case scenario, this is a steep 30-40% pullback we would still see SPY falling to 323 and then 280. around COVID high area
and that's the best case scenario in this current climate/situation.
....
the likely scenario is: we drop 50% from the top. down to retest COVID low area
211-200 MUST hold as support on Monthly chart. Losing that then we're in deep trouble.
MMTH, percentage of stock above 200 day Average.
and we're about to hit the level of COVID low and 2008 crisis of 7-8%.
...
Sitting in cash and waiting for the most opportune time to buy right now is the best course of action from my point of view.
Ideally I would like to be wrong this time and we see market rally and all that, but it's unlikely.
Im expecting to see 323 before summer end.
Monthly chart.
let's just say, it'll get worse, a lot worse, before it can get better.
selling momentum JUST picked up.
as in, we haven't seen real selling pressure ,real blood pouring out yet.
this is from the point of view of Monthly. Daily chart we may retest 387- 398 area first as a Bull Trap before further drop.
best case scenario, this is a steep 30-40% pullback we would still see SPY falling to 323 and then 280. around COVID high area
and that's the best case scenario in this current climate/situation.
....
the likely scenario is: we drop 50% from the top. down to retest COVID low area
211-200 MUST hold as support on Monthly chart. Losing that then we're in deep trouble.
MMTH, percentage of stock above 200 day Average.
and we're about to hit the level of COVID low and 2008 crisis of 7-8%.
...
Sitting in cash and waiting for the most opportune time to buy right now is the best course of action from my point of view.
Ideally I would like to be wrong this time and we see market rally and all that, but it's unlikely.
Im expecting to see 323 before summer end.
Note
I took a few scalp trade this morning when we continue the down trend on intra day chart. I am looking to get some Put option for SPY for 3-4 months out. but i want a better bounce to get that put.
right now i dont want to pay for these premium
Note
We're retesting 387-398 area. once we reclaim 398-400+ area, my bias will be more bullish, until then this is a normal relief bounce during a down trend. we may see 404 on SPY, but price has to hold there, consolidate and form new support, before im going Long.
will post analysis once that is confirmed
Note
Short thesis is still in play here. I am looking to get some PUT for SPY for october.
Lotto play only
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