SPY: Bounce to $430 then Dump to $400
Updated
SPY appears to be barreling towards the completion of a rug-pull event that kicked off back in March of this year. The downside target for this event is $399.88.
Although we ultimately place SPY hitting $399 in the near future as a high probability, we do see yet another rug-pull event that has taken place at the $429 price target on a smaller timeframe:
This is confluent with a weak bullish divergence that is appearing on the Daily chart. This supports the thesis that a bounce to the $430 area will occur before we ultimately sell-off down to $400.
Ultimately we see many bearish factors as we enter what is traditionally a bullish time of the year. See our related idea that dives into what we can expect from the VIX in the coming weeks:
Disclaimer:
Any information contained within this post does not constitute any financial, investment, or trading advice. Trade or invest at your own risk.
Although we ultimately place SPY hitting $399 in the near future as a high probability, we do see yet another rug-pull event that has taken place at the $429 price target on a smaller timeframe:
This is confluent with a weak bullish divergence that is appearing on the Daily chart. This supports the thesis that a bounce to the $430 area will occur before we ultimately sell-off down to $400.
Ultimately we see many bearish factors as we enter what is traditionally a bullish time of the year. See our related idea that dives into what we can expect from the VIX in the coming weeks:
Disclaimer:
Any information contained within this post does not constitute any financial, investment, or trading advice. Trade or invest at your own risk.
Note
SPY is heading towards $430 as expected. We see the $430-$435 price range as a minimum upside target.There is even more cadence towards a downside move following this rally as another rug pull has appeared at the $413 level.
Note
SPY has reached the upper-bound of our target range at $435 as of Friday's close. We now see several rug pull events below the current price target on various timeframes as a result of last week's violent upthrust:We also see potential hidden bearish divergence appearing on the larger timeframes:
Finally, we see a bearish inverted hammer candlestick on the 4H chart to closeout the day on Friday:
Bulls thus far have not been able to fill the gap left at $438.43 on September 20th's gap-down. If we see a reversal here, bears may drive the price down to around $420 where there is significant support. Watching to see how this plays out...
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.