Trading Family,
Tariff FUD is recking traders rn. After breaking important support which started in Nov. '24, I knew the SPY was in trouble. My first target down was 563. We hit that and broke it. My second target down was 550. We are there right now! Will it hold? I don't know. TBH, I don't think any analyst that is honest knows. Investors have never seen Tariffs levied like they have been recently by the Trump admin. Noone really knows how this is going to impact the current economy, which is now global (big diff from the last U.S. tariff econ in the late 1800's).
But I can say that this is a big support which is the neckline of our large long-term Cup and Handle pattern started all the way back in Jan. of 2022! We did have one retest already. Usually, this is all that is needed. But apparently, the market wants another. Though the support is strong, remember, every time it is tagged, it weakens. Thus, if it can't hold this current downturn, I suspect it will drop hard from here should it break, possibly dropping all the way to 460. Be prepared for this and watch your trendline closely!
On the other hand, if it holds, I see a huge bounce incoming! We'll probably then go all the way back up to test the underside of that support (red with two with lines) that we broke. Hold on to your hats! We are living in unprecedented times with unprecedented market volatility.
The last item to note is that, once again, this all seems to be occurring at the same time that U.S. congress and senate are voting on a continuing resolution. Correlation does not necessarily equal causation however, in this case, I would suggest that should a U.S. gov't shutdown occur, our support will break and down we'll go. Should a CR pass, big bounce incoming. Stay tuned and watch the news closely for this. It seems to be a news driven event.
✌️ Stew
Tariff FUD is recking traders rn. After breaking important support which started in Nov. '24, I knew the SPY was in trouble. My first target down was 563. We hit that and broke it. My second target down was 550. We are there right now! Will it hold? I don't know. TBH, I don't think any analyst that is honest knows. Investors have never seen Tariffs levied like they have been recently by the Trump admin. Noone really knows how this is going to impact the current economy, which is now global (big diff from the last U.S. tariff econ in the late 1800's).
But I can say that this is a big support which is the neckline of our large long-term Cup and Handle pattern started all the way back in Jan. of 2022! We did have one retest already. Usually, this is all that is needed. But apparently, the market wants another. Though the support is strong, remember, every time it is tagged, it weakens. Thus, if it can't hold this current downturn, I suspect it will drop hard from here should it break, possibly dropping all the way to 460. Be prepared for this and watch your trendline closely!
On the other hand, if it holds, I see a huge bounce incoming! We'll probably then go all the way back up to test the underside of that support (red with two with lines) that we broke. Hold on to your hats! We are living in unprecedented times with unprecedented market volatility.
The last item to note is that, once again, this all seems to be occurring at the same time that U.S. congress and senate are voting on a continuing resolution. Correlation does not necessarily equal causation however, in this case, I would suggest that should a U.S. gov't shutdown occur, our support will break and down we'll go. Should a CR pass, big bounce incoming. Stay tuned and watch the news closely for this. It seems to be a news driven event.
✌️ Stew
Note
should say, "...important support which started in Nov. '23" NOT Nov. '24
Stewdamus Trades -
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Prophesying the price action of markets one chart at a time.
Crypto predictions, targets, how-tos, and much, much more!
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stewdam.us
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Stewdamus Trades -
Prophesying the price action of markets one chart at a time.
Crypto predictions, targets, how-tos, and much, much more!
Never miss a prophecy. Sign up for my free newsletter at:
stewdam.us
Prophesying the price action of markets one chart at a time.
Crypto predictions, targets, how-tos, and much, much more!
Never miss a prophecy. Sign up for my free newsletter at:
stewdam.us
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.