Not if, But When
The energy sector of the S&P has long had a major weight in the index, the other two being financials and technology.
The positive correlation between WTI and S&P500 demonstrates that over the years a raising Oil price has aided the sustainability of the U.S. bull markets. The price of oil broke an upward channel on July 1st, 2014 losing over 70% of its value from 2014 highs, and 80% from ATH. The S&P continued its rally until it hit 213.78 in May of 2015.
On the other hand the dollar shows a negative correlation with the equity market; in fact, as the dollar strengthens in value, american goods become more expensive to the rest of the world making U.S. companies less price competitive in today's global economy. As globalization keeps advancing at fast pace with developing markets (China and India) becoming more influential, a country's strong currency can only be negative news to GDP projections. Furthermore, a recovering global economy has increased consumers demand price elasticity making buyers more concern about prices.
A separated technical analysis that I have conducted with OBV , RSI, MACD and moving averages, and the herein macro reflection of today's economic landscape suggest that the bull market has run its course, and a bear market is now beginning.
It is impossible to predict when a great selloff will happen, yet it is clear that we are due for a major correction.
You can either stay Cash or play the downtrend, but always remember to hedge your portfolio!
The positive correlation between WTI and S&P500 demonstrates that over the years a raising Oil price has aided the sustainability of the U.S. bull markets. The price of oil broke an upward channel on July 1st, 2014 losing over 70% of its value from 2014 highs, and 80% from ATH. The S&P continued its rally until it hit 213.78 in May of 2015.
On the other hand the dollar shows a negative correlation with the equity market; in fact, as the dollar strengthens in value, american goods become more expensive to the rest of the world making U.S. companies less price competitive in today's global economy. As globalization keeps advancing at fast pace with developing markets (China and India) becoming more influential, a country's strong currency can only be negative news to GDP projections. Furthermore, a recovering global economy has increased consumers demand price elasticity making buyers more concern about prices.
A separated technical analysis that I have conducted with OBV , RSI, MACD and moving averages, and the herein macro reflection of today's economic landscape suggest that the bull market has run its course, and a bear market is now beginning.
It is impossible to predict when a great selloff will happen, yet it is clear that we are due for a major correction.
You can either stay Cash or play the downtrend, but always remember to hedge your portfolio!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.