SPY: Will history repeat at the 1.618?
There are a growing number of people who believe we are in somewhat of a megaphone pattern. If we take a look at the last time we breached the 1.618 FIB level (in Jan-Mar 2000), we can see the results. What's happening now is eerily similar, but in a compressed (almost 2x) format. I'm not suggesting that this pattern will hold true; I'm simply providing the idea and noting the similarities to provide a cautionary tale. If we are in are truly in some sort of megaphone pattern, then we could be in for a rollercoaster. For me personally, I am cautioned by the amount of people riding the bull right now to higher prices, in combination with the number of people that are coming out of the woodwork with "stock tips". Usually, that is a recipe for what comes next. Use the data as you see fit.
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