Calling the top -> 328.75
I like to use the 20 DEMA to match Gann angles and to me it looks like SPY has been moving upwards along the 1/2 (blue arrows) on every rally. A Gann Box drawn along this line is forecasting a top in the next several days.
1) Check out the retrace from the narrow range of 328.5 - 328.8... Lines up w/ pivots from this year pretty well.
2) Daily MFI (light blue line) is diverging and falling fast
3) Daily RSI shows bearish divergence
4) Current round of Fed repo expires Jan 14, China signs trade deal Jan 15, all the ingredients for selling the news are there...
5) Minor elliott waves show that we're probably about to finish wave (v) of 3. Given 2 looks like a flat, 4 will likely be a steep correction.
6) Gann box I drew for SPX (not shown here) forecasted a low around the 1st - 2nd week of February.
7) First target is the .236 retrace around 315. Ultimate target the .382 retrace around 307. Will scalp calls at these levels.
My guess is Fed panics and brings back repo when the market starts collapsing when their balance sheet starts shrinking.
May or may not try to snipe the sell target, always better to wait for confirmation on a break below the 1/2 or 20 DEMA. Even better if it looks to be correlated w/ news that the Fed intends to trim their balance sheet.
1) Check out the retrace from the narrow range of 328.5 - 328.8... Lines up w/ pivots from this year pretty well.
2) Daily MFI (light blue line) is diverging and falling fast
3) Daily RSI shows bearish divergence
4) Current round of Fed repo expires Jan 14, China signs trade deal Jan 15, all the ingredients for selling the news are there...
5) Minor elliott waves show that we're probably about to finish wave (v) of 3. Given 2 looks like a flat, 4 will likely be a steep correction.
6) Gann box I drew for SPX (not shown here) forecasted a low around the 1st - 2nd week of February.
7) First target is the .236 retrace around 315. Ultimate target the .382 retrace around 307. Will scalp calls at these levels.
My guess is Fed panics and brings back repo when the market starts collapsing when their balance sheet starts shrinking.
May or may not try to snipe the sell target, always better to wait for confirmation on a break below the 1/2 or 20 DEMA. Even better if it looks to be correlated w/ news that the Fed intends to trim their balance sheet.
Note
Approaching target here... Weird day, tech very weak as SPY goes parabolic.I thought the Fed's whole excuse for ballooning the balance sheet by 1/2 a trillion was due to "year end tax considerations"? This wk liquidity demands have been GREATER than prior to the end of 2019. Now news has it that Fed is considering lending to hedge funds to stave off the repo issues.... What could go wrong?
Note
BOOMNote
Might be a fake spike given the signing tomorrow... let's see. No idea what caused that.Note
We're a day away from the Gann top. Waiting for them to release the actual deal... my guess is it's gonna be extremely underwhelming. Yesterday's report of tariffs staying in place until November shoulda sent the index down more, but surprise surprise it actually went higher than went the news dropped yesterday. Pretty irrational move considering earnings are right around the corner and now all cyclicals will have to basically factor existing tariffs into guidance for at least 2 more quarters. Sorry, but I thought the whole point of the trade deal was to alleviate tariffs? Instead the market creamed their pants because tariffs that were never implemented... didn't get implemented. I guess 1+0=2?
If this rally keeps stocks elevated I'm gonna short the piss outta some cyclicals when it comes time for earnings.
Still hovering around my target, let's see what tomorrow holds when the deal actually gets released.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.