S&P 500 ETF (SPY) About To Go Down - TIMBER!
📉 Overview:
The S&P 500 (SPY) is signaling a bearish reversal with technical and momentum indicators aligning for a potential decline. A completed 5th wave top, coupled with a breakdown from the bearish wedge, hints at deeper corrections in the coming sessions.
📊 Technical Analysis:
Elliott Wave Count:
SPY has likely completed its 5th wave top, marking the end of the bullish cycle.
Bearish Wedge Breakout:
Price has decisively broken below the rising wedge's trendline, a historically reliable bearish signal.
Momentum Indicators:
- RSI Divergence: Clear bearish divergence as price created higher highs while RSI formed lower highs.
- MACD: Loss of upward momentum, with the MACD histogram turning negative.
Fibonacci Targets:
- Retracement Zone (B): $598–$606 (61.8%–88% retracement of recent decline).
- Target 1 (C): $570.35 (1.0 Fibonacci extension).
- Target 2 (C): $559.67–$553.07 (1.382–1.618 Fibonacci extension).
🌐 Macro Sentiment:
Interest Rate Concerns:
Continued hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve could weigh on equities, particularly as valuations remain elevated.
Economic Slowdown:
Weakening macroeconomic data and potential earnings downgrades in early 2025 could amplify selling pressure.
Seasonality and Risk-Off Trends:
End-of-year profit-taking and increased geopolitical risks may favor defensive positions.
⚡ Trade Plan:
- Short Zone: $598–$606 (retracement of recent sell-off).
- Stop-Loss: $606.82 – Above the 88% Fibonacci retracement and resistance.
Targets:
- Target 1: $570.35 (solid risk-reward).
- Target 2: $553.07 (extended move aligning with wedge breakdown projection).
🔍 Considerations:
Monitor economic data, including inflation, GDP growth, and job numbers, for additional confirmation.
Watch for further MACD weakness and RSI failing to reclaim bullish momentum levels.
Do you think SPY will see a sharper correction, or are bulls likely to regain control? Share your insights! 🚨📊
The S&P 500 (SPY) is signaling a bearish reversal with technical and momentum indicators aligning for a potential decline. A completed 5th wave top, coupled with a breakdown from the bearish wedge, hints at deeper corrections in the coming sessions.
📊 Technical Analysis:
Elliott Wave Count:
SPY has likely completed its 5th wave top, marking the end of the bullish cycle.
Bearish Wedge Breakout:
Price has decisively broken below the rising wedge's trendline, a historically reliable bearish signal.
Momentum Indicators:
- RSI Divergence: Clear bearish divergence as price created higher highs while RSI formed lower highs.
- MACD: Loss of upward momentum, with the MACD histogram turning negative.
Fibonacci Targets:
- Retracement Zone (B): $598–$606 (61.8%–88% retracement of recent decline).
- Target 1 (C): $570.35 (1.0 Fibonacci extension).
- Target 2 (C): $559.67–$553.07 (1.382–1.618 Fibonacci extension).
🌐 Macro Sentiment:
Interest Rate Concerns:
Continued hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve could weigh on equities, particularly as valuations remain elevated.
Economic Slowdown:
Weakening macroeconomic data and potential earnings downgrades in early 2025 could amplify selling pressure.
Seasonality and Risk-Off Trends:
End-of-year profit-taking and increased geopolitical risks may favor defensive positions.
⚡ Trade Plan:
- Short Zone: $598–$606 (retracement of recent sell-off).
- Stop-Loss: $606.82 – Above the 88% Fibonacci retracement and resistance.
Targets:
- Target 1: $570.35 (solid risk-reward).
- Target 2: $553.07 (extended move aligning with wedge breakdown projection).
🔍 Considerations:
Monitor economic data, including inflation, GDP growth, and job numbers, for additional confirmation.
Watch for further MACD weakness and RSI failing to reclaim bullish momentum levels.
Do you think SPY will see a sharper correction, or are bulls likely to regain control? Share your insights! 🚨📊
Disclaimer
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