SPY-Retracement (Weekly view)
Based on Fibonnaci levels and simple historical areas of resistance and support.
Assuming that 2018 contained the blowoff top of the current market cycle after the 2008-2009 crash and subsequent rally, A fib drawn drawn from the 2000/2008 top to the 2018 top gives us the following levels. Assuming a healthy retracement takes to the 0.618-0.786 levels, there's a strong case for sub-200 SPY in the coming year.
For a shorter term perspective, wicking into the 0.382-0.5 level caused the immediate rebound and subsequent narratives (Pension Rebalancing, seriously?), leading me to believe there's significant buy support for dips, and this may take months to play out fully.
Assuming that 2018 contained the blowoff top of the current market cycle after the 2008-2009 crash and subsequent rally, A fib drawn drawn from the 2000/2008 top to the 2018 top gives us the following levels. Assuming a healthy retracement takes to the 0.618-0.786 levels, there's a strong case for sub-200 SPY in the coming year.
For a shorter term perspective, wicking into the 0.382-0.5 level caused the immediate rebound and subsequent narratives (Pension Rebalancing, seriously?), leading me to believe there's significant buy support for dips, and this may take months to play out fully.
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