Short

Spy

ADP and Minutes out tomorrow... I'm thinking a pop if ADP comes in good followed by a mid day flush with a hawk minutes

H&S maybe but I've connected some supporting trends

If 576-580 holds then This H&S will turn into a Wedge triangle

Zoom in at the last 2 day price action
Small broadening wedge is forming here in white.
If we pop tomorrow I'm looking at 592 resistance and over that
593.50 50sma
594 (21ema).

So I'm looking for a bounce between 592-594 before a reject

If we gap down then this broadening wedge is negated

And this H&S shoulder plays out to 580

Weekly chart with 21ema..
Weekly 21ema is a 580
Wedge trendline is at 580
Price action support is at 580

U have to be very nimble bear here They will fight hard to keep the weekly 21ema.. they may dip to 576 to close gap then push back above and leave you trapped..

If price closes the week below 576-580.. then 566 is next up.

I will update into the weekend...

Note

Good morning...

19.00 - 19.40 resistance and weekly 200sma..

As long as price holds over 18.00 there will be pressure to the downside.

Vix breaks below 15.80 and bulls have the wheel..

Vix breaks above 20.00 and forget the left side of your option chain

Price tagged it this morning but it's pulling back.. I'm no Economics expert but having week job numbers is a catch 22..

Weaker jobs may force Fed to cut rates instead of pausing = bullish sentiment

Weaker jobs + stubborn inflation = Bearish sentiment?

Note

15 min chart..

50sma at 512.40
Gap support at 512.40

I wouldn't short this unless it broke below 512.00.. then you'd target 509.00

Upside
Over 517.50 and 520.00 comes.
Over 520 and 523 comes

Note

Remember.. minutes come out 2p.m Eastern..

Don't commit too much to a position..
After minutes there is no market tomorrow so you will be swinging into the major job report Friday.

Note

15min chart...
Tight range , fallen wedge here..

Note

Qqq and spy never quite closed their gaps..

Looking at the money flow on the futures ES and NQ 3-4 hour chart... A big squeeze to the upside could be around the corner

Note

Last 2 day price action on the vix has formed a Bearish ascending wedge ..
Should dump as long as 19.50 isn't breached

Note

You see the 5min 200sma on Qqq?
Over that and they push this to 520

Note

Qqq 15 min chart...
My bias is 520 by Friday.. but swinging calls here under 516 is risky... I don't think Qqq will get back over 20sma or 523 before CPI next week. Good luck on your swings.. catch you later ✌️

Note

Looking for a pullback to 20sma over next few days

Note

Es1
1hour chart .
Before I swing any options I always like to look at the futures but they usually dictate how open will be despite Cash session technicals

Triangle setup here.. we are near support

I think we get a bounce back to 6025 -6040

After job numbers if we are still holding 5919 then we pop higher.
Below 5919 and 5870

Bollinger bands are super tight right now on the hourly so I expect a 1% move either to the down side or upside.. the fact that the money flow is in the dirt makes me lean to the upside.

This translate in to SpY
595 or 580 on spy tomorrow

Note

Vix
Price has is showing the exact opposite pattern of Spy and Qqq Descending triangle which is an Ascending triangle. If Spy pushes back up to triangle resistance then Vix will pull back to 15.80 -16.00 support..

Too much going on this month
CPI, ppi , then,Core PCE, Trump administration new policies and actions and finally Rate Decision end of the month.. I think Vix heads higher back over 20 eventually with all the uncertainty

Note

Good morning.. Those gaps from last Thursday Jan 2nd will most likely get filled..

So do we fill and rally?
If breaks below 509 then no rally comes today and Qqq heads to 504 and heads to 580.
Over head resistance on any bounce is Qqq 50sma at 512.50

Note

But Qqq is gapping below 50sma at 512.50.

Id try puts on any retest 512.50
Target 505-509
Stop loss over 513.50

Note

Haven't made a trade... Didn't give me my 512 on Qqq to short.. I'm on the sidelines just watching...

Note

Most likely 576 gap close this week then a rally back to 592-594
Here's Spy with price range tool.. As you can see Spy doesn't like being extended more than 2½% from it's 20ma before a snap back..

7 days ago

Note

Good morning

Spy closing gap, at 576.

but until Qqq tags 497 the drop has unfinished business

Vix wants 23.50

7 days ago

Note

If you are trying to scalp calls
Keep 574.36 as your stop loss .

577.50 1st TGT
580 last TGT

7 days ago

Note

Biggest tech sector

Has gapped below weekly 20sma

Will now tag the daily 200sma at 220.
The tech isn't done selling..
Don't stay long on calls and very risky to swing

6 days ago

Note

Every one looking at spy election Gap at 576 but what about Qqq election gap at 492? .. it' gets close

ContraryTrader

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