Short

Updated

Spy

Looking for a gap close at 509 by End of week followed by a bounce back to 518-520 before the next leg down to 497..
Ascending broadening wedge here.

Vix 4 hour chart.. is flagging for a move up to 18 .

Dow jones
Bear channel formed here. Next target is 37,800.. I expect a dead cat there before fi al target of 37,000

Nasdaq or IXIC
Looking for 15,930 this week then A bounce back to 16,250 before a correction down to 15,500 gap close.. what this looks like on QQQ is a drop to 433 then a pop to 441 before a leg down to 420

Note

Morning...
Qqq resistance is around 440.50
Over 441 and they will push for 442 gap close.
Below 441 and prices flushes back down to 436. Below 436 , 433-434

439.00 - 440.50 is chop

Vix got real close to 18.0p and U-turn, back in side flag now..
Lets see what happen s

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Spy
Resistance is at 516 or 1hour 200sma.. over 516.50 and price will shoot for 518.00 - 519 gap close.

Support is 514 below that 512

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They wont flush tech unless QQQ breaks back below 439.00 (5min 200sma)

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Dow is moving on schedule..
They bought up Vix and 10yr.
Once QQQ breaks 439.00 , market will flush

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Chop zone for now..
SPY hit a weekly lower low and So did dow and IWM..

Qqq stubborn ....

Going into tomorrow with bank earnings is Risky business ... if the banks beat we'll have a friday melt up on Dow and smallcaps. If the banks tank then dow continues on to 38,000 .

Tech isnt bullish but they do not want to break that 50ema.. Chips are playing major plunge protector

Note

Spy pushed up to resistance at 518.. gap close over head..

Qqq push to 443.. next resis is 445 .. and over that back to 447... unless they bring this back below 440 they will push it back up to supply..

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Vix 1hour..

Pulled back to 200ema... breaks below 15.00 and market rally higher.. Bounces there and flag still in play

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Qqq daily..
Back at the top of 1month range.. History shows its better to short here at 447 then long.

Spy 1hour chart..
Price acrion resistance at 520.. over that and we could see 524 . I dont see QQQ pushing over 447 but the Dow and Financials are the wild card.. if banks rally on earnings you will see a push from cylicals and that would help spy over 520

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Nq 2hour chart. Close at slanted resistance. Expect chop until cash.

Arrows represents next path

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Looking at the dollar or DXY..
Still wants 107 handle

Looking at the 10 yr and it wants a 5 handle.

Those 2 indicators alone tells you as far as mid term trading it is risk off

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Spy 15min chart..
If we open up below 515 we will be back inside our 2 day range of 515-512..
Below 514 and 512 is the next stop..
Needs to break 511.50 for 509 gap close.

Friday is notorious for fawkery. If they but it up Long only over 1hour 200sma or 516.50
Target 520.00

Note

Qqq 1hour chart..

441 is the support and resistance of today..
441 represents 1hour 50/200 sma plus trendline (White line).

Below 441 and 439 incoming. Opening up shorts keep yoyr eye on the 5min 200sma.
Below 439 and 436 target

Long only over yellow line or 443, targer 445 -447

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Same bearish ascending broadening wedge you see playing out on the dow from 39,800 is the same pattern showing on Spy and Qqq.

Im the coming weeks, Qqq will follow the Dows path and correct back to 425..

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Vix daily chart.. about to hit my weekly target here around 19.... Vix breaks over this and 23 is next up

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Spy at support
Dow at 38,000
Qqq at 439..

Risky to still be short here ..
Its still early .. I'll be back last hour

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Spy and QQQ currently on 50sma.. Dow jones about to tag 37,800 support... I think a bounce comes next week but its better to wait for mid monday to open longs... Spy could dead cat bounce back to 514-516 before heading lower

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Its alot to unpack so I'll go over it this weekend... Cylicals (NYA), Financials (XLF) and Health (XLV) got wrecked this week . I'll explain later.

Note

2 things usually happen when Indexes close on the 50sma..

1. Sizeable gap up

2. Sizeable gap down..

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Go to your 1hour chart. DJI , SPY, QQQ

. Add the 1hour
50sma and 200sma..
No look at what happens to the price once the 50sma crosses under 200sma (Death cross).

Next week will end bloody like this one but early on could see a dead cat.. catch you'll later ✌

ContraryTrader

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ContraryTrader

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