SPYFirst post. Looking for input...
My read of the situation:
- Western world is guaranteed for 2-3 weeks
- Tourism and travel has ground to a halt
- A reduction in travel typically means reduction in commerce
- Public will go into survival mode and will reduce / stop spending, and large, frivolous, and/or luxury purchases are almost out of the question
- Human habits take two weeks to form
- Global markets are not buying government action and central bank stimulus
- Small business (e.g., bars, cafes, etc.) will struggle to stay in business, which translates to layoffs and closures
- Large businesses will start feeling the pinch, which translates to layoffs, additional corporate debt, bailouts, and closures
- Demand for commodities will fall further
- Eventually, travel restrictions will start to be lifted, but the just because people can travel, does not mean they will
- People that still have jobs will return to work, but lives will not return to normal, because of new reality and newly-formed spending habits
One month candle chart:
- CCI just entered bear territory and is likely to spend some time there
- RSI has lots of room to go down
- ADX and DI, bears on top with momentum coming off a low and increasing
- Trading / selling volume has yet to pick up
Ideal buy scenario:
- SP500 walks lower bollinger band down (like pre 2008)
- Weekly and monthly RSI triggers a buy signal
- Lower wick of 6 month candle dips below lower bollinger band
- CCI exits bear territory on monthly candle chart
- Signs of support at 181, if/when 233 breaks
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.