GEX and Price Action Setting Up the Next Move 🎯
🧠 GEX-Based Options Analysis (For Option Traders)
SPY's current positioning in the options market reveals a heavy concentration of gamma and hedging pressure near 620. This level is acting as the Gamma Wall (Highest positive NETGEX / Call Resistance), which typically limits upside unless dealers are forced to unwind hedges.
* Call Walls sit densely at 622 and 624, with diminishing strength up to 626.25.
* Put Walls are stacked below at 618, 616, and most aggressively near 615.
* Notably, today's HVL expires at 620, adding pressure to keep price pinned around that level into the close.
* GEX readings are turning neutral to slightly bearish, with PUT flow dominating at 38.6% vs CALLS at 12.6%.
* IVR is still low at 11.3, which means option premiums are cheap — favoring debit strategies or directional plays if a breakout occurs.
Option Trade Ideas:
🟩 Bullish Setup (Break above 621.5) Buy 622C or 624C (weekly or next Friday expiration). Target: 626–628 (into light gamma zone), Stop below 620.
🟥 Bearish Setup (Break below 617.5) Buy 618P or 615P, targeting 613–610. Stop above 620. Time the move for IV expansion and gamma acceleration.
📈 Technical Analysis – 1-Hour Chart (For Intraday & Swing Traders)
The chart shows SPY compressing into a wedge pattern just above ascending trendline support from July 2nd. The price action is stuck between declining supply from the 626–628 rejection zone and strong demand at 617.88–615.
* Structure: Price has formed a CHoCH (Change of Character) at the top, followed by BOS confirming bearish pressure. However, price has been resilient above 617, building potential for a spring trap.
* Support: 617.88 → key zone. If lost, next support is near 613–610.
* Resistance: 622–624 remains the magnet for a breakout attempt if bulls take over.
* Volume: Declining, indicating a volatility expansion is likely soon.
Scenarios to Watch:
🔼 Bullish Breakout: If price reclaims 621.50 and breaks above the recent wedge resistance, look for a squeeze toward 624 then 626. Use tight stops and look for volume confirmation.
🔽 Bearish Breakdown: A clean break below 617.88 could unleash sellers toward 613. This aligns with GEX pressure and heavy PUT walls.
🧭 Final Thoughts
SPY is sitting on top of a coiled spring — both gamma and price structure are ready for release. This is not the time to guess; let price break from the wedge and follow the momentum. With IV still low and GEX polarity neutralizing, this is a perfect setup for directional options plays only after confirmation.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk responsibly.
🧠 GEX-Based Options Analysis (For Option Traders)
SPY's current positioning in the options market reveals a heavy concentration of gamma and hedging pressure near 620. This level is acting as the Gamma Wall (Highest positive NETGEX / Call Resistance), which typically limits upside unless dealers are forced to unwind hedges.
* Call Walls sit densely at 622 and 624, with diminishing strength up to 626.25.
* Put Walls are stacked below at 618, 616, and most aggressively near 615.
* Notably, today's HVL expires at 620, adding pressure to keep price pinned around that level into the close.
* GEX readings are turning neutral to slightly bearish, with PUT flow dominating at 38.6% vs CALLS at 12.6%.
* IVR is still low at 11.3, which means option premiums are cheap — favoring debit strategies or directional plays if a breakout occurs.
Option Trade Ideas:
🟩 Bullish Setup (Break above 621.5) Buy 622C or 624C (weekly or next Friday expiration). Target: 626–628 (into light gamma zone), Stop below 620.
🟥 Bearish Setup (Break below 617.5) Buy 618P or 615P, targeting 613–610. Stop above 620. Time the move for IV expansion and gamma acceleration.
📈 Technical Analysis – 1-Hour Chart (For Intraday & Swing Traders)
The chart shows SPY compressing into a wedge pattern just above ascending trendline support from July 2nd. The price action is stuck between declining supply from the 626–628 rejection zone and strong demand at 617.88–615.
* Structure: Price has formed a CHoCH (Change of Character) at the top, followed by BOS confirming bearish pressure. However, price has been resilient above 617, building potential for a spring trap.
* Support: 617.88 → key zone. If lost, next support is near 613–610.
* Resistance: 622–624 remains the magnet for a breakout attempt if bulls take over.
* Volume: Declining, indicating a volatility expansion is likely soon.
Scenarios to Watch:
🔼 Bullish Breakout: If price reclaims 621.50 and breaks above the recent wedge resistance, look for a squeeze toward 624 then 626. Use tight stops and look for volume confirmation.
🔽 Bearish Breakdown: A clean break below 617.88 could unleash sellers toward 613. This aligns with GEX pressure and heavy PUT walls.
🧭 Final Thoughts
SPY is sitting on top of a coiled spring — both gamma and price structure are ready for release. This is not the time to guess; let price break from the wedge and follow the momentum. With IV still low and GEX polarity neutralizing, this is a perfect setup for directional options plays only after confirmation.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk responsibly.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.