SPY Bear Target: $214
COVID-19, oil price wars, fractured supply chains, travel bans = unprecedented financial and societal disruption and we just ended an 11-year bull market, the longest bull market ever.
Are we at the cusp of the next economic collapse?
Technical Analysis:
• During every significant bear market, price action moved well below the Ichimoku cloud and exceeded the Fibonacci 50 level
• Our major pivot points based on Fibonacci are 23, 38, and 61, with values of $254, $214, $149 respectively
• Fibonacci 23 just hit March 12th ($254). This is only target 1, we are only at the tip of the iceberg.
• Expect high volatility and irrational price action (big gains & BIGGER losses) over the next few weeks before the market takes a DEEP dive towards the next retracement levels
• MACD has crossed the signal line and histogram shows outflux of money with strong selling pressure forming
• RSI is bearish and trending below 50
Conclusion: SPY to retest Fib 38 @ $214 and then Fib 50 @ $181
**Bonus** According to Goldman Sachs, "the combination of thin liquidity, high uncertainty, and positioning could cause the S&P 500 to fall below our $245 base case estimate of fair value and closer to a trough of $200"
Never trade against the prevailing trend of the market. And right now, the market has Goliath bear signals for a substantially lower bottom than a Fib 23 retracement.
Are we at the cusp of the next economic collapse?
Technical Analysis:
• During every significant bear market, price action moved well below the Ichimoku cloud and exceeded the Fibonacci 50 level
• Our major pivot points based on Fibonacci are 23, 38, and 61, with values of $254, $214, $149 respectively
• Fibonacci 23 just hit March 12th ($254). This is only target 1, we are only at the tip of the iceberg.
• Expect high volatility and irrational price action (big gains & BIGGER losses) over the next few weeks before the market takes a DEEP dive towards the next retracement levels
• MACD has crossed the signal line and histogram shows outflux of money with strong selling pressure forming
• RSI is bearish and trending below 50
Conclusion: SPY to retest Fib 38 @ $214 and then Fib 50 @ $181
**Bonus** According to Goldman Sachs, "the combination of thin liquidity, high uncertainty, and positioning could cause the S&P 500 to fall below our $245 base case estimate of fair value and closer to a trough of $200"
Never trade against the prevailing trend of the market. And right now, the market has Goliath bear signals for a substantially lower bottom than a Fib 23 retracement.
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