4 Ideas on Where the Bulltrap Ends (Updated 4/13/20)
Updated
The current bull trap pattern remains bullish, and today's small pullback allows for a run-up tomorrow to the 284-285 range, where there is an important pivot / resistance. Any trend reversal here would help form a double top pattern, similar to the one that had formed around 263 on March 31. From here, I'm expecting a bigger pullback here back to the 0.5 fib line and the bullish trend line. This is the first opportunity to breakdown the bull trap, but I believe it's more likely we see a bounce here and a bullish continuation towards the next fib line (.786) at 293. Any pullback from the .786 fib line has a must better chance of breaking down the bullish trend line. Good opportunities to swing trade in the near term and enter short positions towards the end of the bull trap.
Note
Pullback as expected, after the 284-285 resistance area / pivot held up yesterday. Looking for SPY to pullback to 266-270 range before a reversal back up.Note
We had a smaller pullback than expected and consolidated for two days within a tight range between 275 and 280. SPY was very bullish entering after hours trading and I believe the next push to 293 will occur tomorrow.Note
Three bull trap breakdown opportunities have been tested, and we're finally getting a leg down, likely to the 278 area. I expect one more re-test of the overhead bear trend line (ie. last chance for bulls) before we finally begin our Elliot Wave 5 down to 245 or potentially lower.
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