Updated

Spy

Closed on trendline support, 20sma and 508 price action...
I think there's a very high chance we could close gap at 515 and push to trendline resistance 515-516 early on in the week like so tradingview.com/x/H9nHO69N.

If 508 is broken early this week (Monday) the first stop would be 507 gap close, watch for a bear trap there and a bounce, i dont think we go for 503-505 until later in the week.
Below 507 and i like the short to 505.

Weekly candle and volume hints at a lower low incoming but always remember this, "Weekly technicals have the entire week to fulfill", meaning we can see a technical bounce early on and then look for the dump/flush around late Wednesday or thursday.

Qqq daily chart.
Bounced off 433 price action and trend line support. I circled the previous 4 touches that validates this trendline

Closed inside this falling wedge here.. i smell 444 gap close this week

As you know how tricky playing the right tech can be these last 2 months. I think Chip stocks play majority role in the upside for tech this week..
SMH sector.. same falling wedge here, out friday as u notice with the pop on chips , fizzled out later on but the setup is still there and with NVDA event i think we will see a big move

IWM
Weekly trading inside a wedge. Closed on support trendline.

Hourly chart here

203.50 will be very sticky because of the price action and 20sma.. over 203.50 and 206.50 comes next.
Below 200 is 50sma at 198. A close below 198 a d 194 gap close incoming

XLK sector
Range trade here.. unless 204 breaks careful shorting (Msft or aapl).. 204 is nvda earnings gap so if we lose 204 QQQ will most likely lose 433

XLY (Amzn/Tsla)
Broke wedge support late last week with heavy selling from tsla.
Should test 174 this week. So look for more weakness here

XLC
(META /Googl)
If you notice the last 2months that whenever Meta is up googl is down; This is because these are the 2 biggest stocks in this sector and currently the sector is trading in a tight range. Closed on 21ema so starting next week we'll either head back to 80.40 resistance or 78.

A summary of this analysis is Up early in the week and Red later

Note

Morning ..
Qqq opening up near 439 gap close..
My minimum target for this week is 443.70 gap close.

I expect a test of the 20sma at 437.50 today so dont Fomo longs early, wait for an entry..

Note

$Spy..
Opening up support is at 513.00 and 512.00. I think its a good chance we retest 512 before going higher.. target for the week is 516 trendline resistance

Note

im long AMD at 191, will add if it test 187.. stop out below 187

But Looking at the NQ 1hour MFI i can see a pullback coming to 438 on QQQ. Still the 3-4hour tells me this bull run isn't done

Note

1hour chart.. back tested breakout. Needed to cool off from the pump all night next stop is 18,500 or 444 $Qqq..
The move up isnt done

Note

Qqq tested 20sma.. 21ema at 437.00 not expecting a dip below that .. everything is going to plan as long as 436 holds..
Be back EOD

Note

Spy 30min chart..
See u at 517.

Note

The semi sector SMH.. is gapping below its 20sma at 216

Qqq is gapping below its 20sma at 437

You could see a retest of those SMA..
Unless they reclaim it QQQ will head back to 433.

If spy doesn't reclaim 512, then 509 gap close incoming

Note

Chip sector has more bleeding to go.. most likely 206 would be a buy on SMH at trendline support

As you can see they are maintaining 433 by propping up other big n names which say alot..
Unless they flush the rest of big tech we are back to Friday levels going into FOMC

Note

Although i figure 433 would hold, I did not see this type of buy up. Back to yesterdays high ..

They bought everything nack over the 20sma also..

No positions here and im not swinging nothing.. I'll be back tomorrow around noon

Note

Qqq 2hour chart

Spy 2hour chart

Spy hit my weekly target but QQQ didn't, honestly the trendline resistance on QQQ wasn't as clear as spy....

Vix 4hour chart.. sitting on its 50day. Trendline support around 13.40 .. I'd watch out on a market rug pull if vix gets around 13.40. Trendline hasnt broken all year

Note

Dow jones 4hour chart..
At resistance like Spy and QQQ

Note

This is my opinion, the next time QQQ test 433 it will most likely break it to the down side.. over 441 though and 444 gap close incoming.. over 446 and 450 incoming

Note

Vix bounced off trendline.. doesnt want to go down.. Careful here bulls

Note

443.80 gap closed on QQQ...
No signs of slowing up but i think 441 on qqq and 518 on spy will be retested ..
Dow jones at 39,500 ..that will be resistance and 39,300 support; over that a 40k incoming

Note

Heres how we finished on QQQ, SPY. ViX.

Qqq middle of the channel.. 442.90 support, below that 441. 20sma has now moved up to 440 so thats the tough support.

Over headed resistance is 445 then 446.75 over 447 come 450 the. Trendline resistance

Chips took a back seat all week , XLC broke out of 80$ range and is looking to head back to ATH high.

Spy
1hour chart
Any move pver 521.50 and 525 is next up..
Below 520 and 518 is next up folled by 515
I dont like the Money flow and RSI on the 15min as far as opening new longs without a pullback

Vix
1hour chart.. broke trendline support at 13.40 on a late day flush.. has a gap to close at 12.90 and has a possible falling wedge setup here... i dont see this breakong below 12.50 without a big bounce

With that being said.. I'd like to see tomorrow's premarket price action but i think 450 maybe incoming on QQQ after a pullback to 441.

Powell speaks again on friday morning

Note

Ok , so the move was made overnight... 441 qqq pullback and 518 spy pullback out the question for today...
The pullback target now is 446.50
And 445.00. .. from there they continue the melt up

Note

Looking at the tech sectors
XLK and SMH are both closing their gaps

XLK - 211

SMH - 228

Now when major gaps like that get close there's usually a knee jerk flush or profit take.

Keep your eyes on SMH, if it breaks over 229 it will most likely head to 232 and ATH which would fuel the chips

Note

The only thing that has been a reliable indicator of a flush is Spy daily RSI which has produced bearish divergence in contrast with the candles. We'll see what happens today with it on connection.

We'll see what happens today with it on connection. But i will say this , its bearish divergence until it isn't . Example
This was the Dow jones bearish divergence. Yesterday it broke out from under it

Note

Sorry for all the posting this morning... i try to keep it to a minimum until AH.. the coffee was strong this morning ! .
I'll be looking for a pullback then a push higher...
If you see SMH break above 229 and nvda breaks above 930 then they will push the chips higher

Catch you later

Note

Spy back at bearish divergence

1hour money flow just lit up

Qqq and spy both outside daily bollingerbands....

Vix hourly CCI oversold and bounced off 12.40

Very bad setup to open any longs IMO..
A bigger flush down maybe coming in the next trading session

Note

Dow jones 2hour chart..
Near resistance..

NYA/NYSe
Near resistance

Note

Iwm approaching 209.30 resistance again..
Fib levels are from ATH and 2020 low.. i dont think this breaks over 210 today or tomorrow.. look for a pullback in the 209 area.. 206.55 first target

Note

XLC pulled back from 82 resistance...
XLK rejected at 212 resistance .. will be hard for MSFT unless 212 breaks

Note

SMH 5min chart..
I told you this morning 229 was resistance and its holding but price isnt dropping.. chip stocks are resilient.. pressure cooker here ..
Bullish aboved 229.50
Bearish below 227

Note

Feels like a friday how they are keeping price up despite being over extended...

Still waiting for 445 test on QQQ... Technicals are their for the pullback now flthese fawkers just need a reason.. Powell? Tomorrow?

Note

DXY formed pennant.

VIX nice bottom off support

Note

You know the market is Overbought when you find your self overly familiar with The Fib extension tool 😂.. XLF financial sector hit an ATH today.
I'll be back EOD

Note

Qqq hit my target 445.50 pullback target .. price is still overbought... No decision on next step for me.. either we head to 443 or back to 450. Over 450 and 455 comes next..

As far as Spy and Dow.. Dow wants 40k, either we retest 39,500 first or test 40k.
Spy at the mercy of dow and QQQ

Note

As you can see with the resis levels on the sectors i gave you for tech

XLK - 212
XLC - 82
XLY- 186
SMH. -229

All resistance held .. The biggest drag on the market was Aapl but you see how they counter the drag by propping up MSFT..
They always find a plunge protector

Note

Personal opinion from my observations ..
You'll know when the top is in when you see all big tech correct at once (10%) or more. So far each big tech has pulled back but individually based on some bad news analysts downgrade.. As long has you have days where half big tech is up and half is down or Financials down and health is up the marathon will continue..

Cycle wise late feb and march is usually correction territory where profits are taken from the holiday rally but here we are pate march and the most we've seen was a side ways consolidation. There will need to be an "event" to kick things of it seems; In 2018 it was the China tariffs, 2020 covid, 2022 rate hikes, what will 2024 be?

Most weekly RSI is now at 80 on the indexes and major sector. The recipe is there ...

Catch you'll later

Note

Qqq .
Below 445.00 and we head to 443.70 gap close...

To the upside 447.30 is resistance, over that 449

Spy is more difficult because of Dow
But 523 is resistance over that 524.50
I doubt spy moves over 525.

To the downside
Below 521.50 and 520 incoming.
Beneath that 518

Note

Googl and nvda plunge protectors today

Googl has gap resistance at 151.30

Nvda has resistance at 925

Qqq 5min.. chart..
Gap closed , top of the channel..
, unless they buy up other tech we flush

Note

The Theta burn is annoying... I'll taking profits here... dont feel like sitting around all day staring at a screen on a Friday..

Be back on EOD

Note

Very nasty price manipulation here.. it is what it ism.. Dow pulled back to 39,500 support..

Iwm near 206 support...

Of course they pumped a few big tech to prop the market..... the chop actually cools off the indicators with price actually falling therefore the marathon continues with a reasonable pullback (Manipulation)

Note

Typical friday Melt.. i think last fridays quad witching was the only sustained red friday in months!

Dow, spy and QQQ all gave partial gap closes from FOMC.. i think next week we will close those gaps minimum!

Vix 4hour chart.. Falling wedge here promising some red next week.

Note

Well Dow and Iwm closed FOMC from Thursday.. That leaves QQQ and SPY.. so expect weakness from tech next week..
If you go back and look st My NYA/Nyse you'll see todays price action puts us in the middle of channel which means movement will be determined if IWM can hold 206 and dow 39,500

Note

NQ daily chart.. most likely we test 18,300 next week or 441 QQQ... Target 20sma..
Stop loss 450 or 18,750..

Catch you'll later

ContraryTrader

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

ContraryTrader

Also on: