Three Potential outcomes for the S&P 500
We are seeing a clear correction in the market that has potential to turn into a full blown bear market due to a number of reasons such as rising unemployment, looming debt crisis, and geopolitical tensions. From my experience and analysis I see 3 possible outcomes in the coming weeks and months for the 
SPY
Two of the three predictions lead to more pain for bulls. Let’s hope situation #1 is what will happen.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and all statements made are for informational purposes formed from of my own opinion and should not be considered as investment advice.
SPY - The price starts to recover after another minor red day on August 5th, bouncing off support around 524.60, and will start to normalize back with the long-term bullish trend.
- A head and shoulders pattern forms on the weekly chart, starting with a move down to 495, retracing back to 524.60, and then forcing a large downward move that stops just short of entering a bear market/ recession at the 200EMA (around the 450 price level), starting a new bull run as it recovers.
- The events of situation 2 unfold the same way, however, price fails to bounce off the 200EMA, and we enter a full-blown recession, fueled by high unemployment, destabilization of the geopolitical climate, and civil unrest from the results of the US 2024 elections.
Two of the three predictions lead to more pain for bulls. Let’s hope situation #1 is what will happen.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and all statements made are for informational purposes formed from of my own opinion and should not be considered as investment advice.
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