Hey everyone,
Going to keep this short because I feel like, between projections and levels, I have a good idea of what is going to happen next week.
The chain of events seem to be gap down/ or sell towards 550 / 549, then up to 557 (which is also our reference target, that yellow line in the chart) where we see rejection to sub 550.
I am a little shook that this is moving super quick, but the last correction in a Trump era was fairly swift, tumbling over 20% in the span of maybe 3 months if I remember correctly (2018). But it was a complex market because there was an initial collapse, then a choppy grind up to highs, then an even deeper sell. I am hoping that this does not repeat because that would be annoying.
Here is the forecast:
The red line is the best fit projection.
Looking at the forecast overlaid with the levels for next week it does really align well with the move to 557.
If we are to break over 557, then I would be looking for a cap at 559.
The best fit low is 546, which means dropping below previous support.
The ultimate target as of right now is a move back to the quadratic mean in the 490s. Though we could find support on the upper confidence level.
If we are doing a very fundamental correction, 472 is SPY's mean based on the US money supply:
As of right now the target to really just care about is 546.
And as a side note, there was a ton of volume uptick in that 555 range. We only hit it on Friday, but over the last 5 days, 555 comprised the HIGHEST volume, all selling, to the point of being SPY's 5 day POC. That is pretty intense for a new low on the week achieved Friday a few hours before market closed for the weekend to comprise the most volume and it being 95% in one direction. This stark EOW volume generally would lead to gap in the direction of the volume, which was bearish, so hence I do expect a bit of a gap down.
Anyway, those are my thoughts, keeping the idea fairly simple this week because I'm tired haha.
Safe trades, enjoy your weekend!
P.s. Thank you as always to Tradingview for allowing people to do plots with pinescript on public ideas! 🙏🙏🙏
Going to keep this short because I feel like, between projections and levels, I have a good idea of what is going to happen next week.
The chain of events seem to be gap down/ or sell towards 550 / 549, then up to 557 (which is also our reference target, that yellow line in the chart) where we see rejection to sub 550.
I am a little shook that this is moving super quick, but the last correction in a Trump era was fairly swift, tumbling over 20% in the span of maybe 3 months if I remember correctly (2018). But it was a complex market because there was an initial collapse, then a choppy grind up to highs, then an even deeper sell. I am hoping that this does not repeat because that would be annoying.
Here is the forecast:
The red line is the best fit projection.
Looking at the forecast overlaid with the levels for next week it does really align well with the move to 557.
If we are to break over 557, then I would be looking for a cap at 559.
The best fit low is 546, which means dropping below previous support.
The ultimate target as of right now is a move back to the quadratic mean in the 490s. Though we could find support on the upper confidence level.
If we are doing a very fundamental correction, 472 is SPY's mean based on the US money supply:
As of right now the target to really just care about is 546.
And as a side note, there was a ton of volume uptick in that 555 range. We only hit it on Friday, but over the last 5 days, 555 comprised the HIGHEST volume, all selling, to the point of being SPY's 5 day POC. That is pretty intense for a new low on the week achieved Friday a few hours before market closed for the weekend to comprise the most volume and it being 95% in one direction. This stark EOW volume generally would lead to gap in the direction of the volume, which was bearish, so hence I do expect a bit of a gap down.
Anyway, those are my thoughts, keeping the idea fairly simple this week because I'm tired haha.
Safe trades, enjoy your weekend!
P.s. Thank you as always to Tradingview for allowing people to do plots with pinescript on public ideas! 🙏🙏🙏
Note
546 right away huh Note
This played out perfectly unfortunately it took the weekly low out right away so ... need to reassess but I believe the next TP to be 563 for SPY.Will need to look at it more. If we break over 559, then yeah its 563. We are just pushing into 559 currently so I would be very careful with your longs or shorts until you see a decisive move from this level.
Note
Well, well, well, what an interesting week!We got the 563 that I was hoping for.
And then yeah, tariff stuff. Interesting reaction.
To be honest, I don't know where this goes in the short term, but in the long term its still down.
I think uh, honestly, Trump is trying to speed up the correction to make it happen sooner so that it can start recovery sooner.
The correction was written in stone regardless of Trump, but I think he just wants it to move a bit fast so it doesn't drag out like the 2022 correction.
Which..... I am here for actually.
So let's see what happens!
Note
So yeah we acutally are following the forecast AGAIN, lmao, happens every week, the forecast is correct but then I get confused for some reason. The only thing different is the forecast called for a low of 539 and we are much lower, but the general gist is that we continue down mostly into EOW but we should see a bounce starting tomorrow.
Things are moving blazing fast! Nuts! never traded a market this bearish before.
So yeah, be prepared for some bouncing to happen.
I realize another thing that I forgot or omitted to tell people, which is the annual high probability target for SPY this year was 529.
Based on how bullish we entered the year I was like "Yeah right" but yeah, its coming haha.
Anyway, this will conclude my update for the remainder of the week.
I will post new forecast and update into next week.
If you are in positions, be on alert for potential bounce into tomorrow which you can see on the forecast plot I have shared.
Safe trades everyone!
Note
Unreal lmfao! just.. unreal.Okay so I guess I should update.
Looking at my annual forecast, it has SPY hitting 514 in the next 2 days.
Rerunning a quick forecast for today has us snagging 518 / 517
Upside of around 525 cap.
Wow, just wow.
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- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
Consider joining my trade group at:
patreon.com/steversteves
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
If you're looking for:
- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
Consider joining my trade group at:
patreon.com/steversteves
- Live Updates,
- Discord access,
- Access to my Proprietary Merlin Software,
- Access to premium indicators,
Consider joining my trade group at:
patreon.com/steversteves
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.