Spy

Updated

Holiday update.. This should cover some levels into the next few weeks..

I'll be going over

SPY
IWM
DJI
QQQ

Market goes no where without tech
So let's start with Q's
Back inside wedge here

Upside of the Wedge is 533ish..

Next few days -

531 is resistance.. over 531.50 and QQQ pushes back up to 533.. over 534 and it melts up to close gap 538.
527.50 - 531.50 is chop..
Below 527 and 524 comes..
Nasdaq futures are over extended so I'd be weary of swinging calls.. up near 531-533 the air will be thin and they won't be able to push all technology expect some big names to be red and some green

Iwm.. I'm actually mid term bullish here.. I think money will rotate from fang and back into small caps for a push back to 232-234 over the next few weeks. But first Iwm needs to reclaim 226.. that area between 224-226 is a vicious resistance; IWM only broke over it with Trump election..

Using Fib levels
From 2023 low and ATH and you'll get .236 fib resistance at 225, add to that you have the Weekly 20sma at 224.70.

I would not buy calls here unless it clears 226.00. Over 226 and we head back to 232 first stop

220-224 is chop..
Below 217 is bearish to 212

Dow jones
Earlier this month Dow jones , ,

All rejected of this long term trend line here. And as you saw they've all bleed the entire month.

Looking at Some major Sectors (Health, Transport, energy) , they are oversold and honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see the dow push back up to 44k or maybe even to retest that trend line for the doubletop.

Here's what the price action looks like on the daily..
Price needs to break back above 43,500 or 50sma for a move back to 20sma or 40k..

Support is 42,800.. below that and we head back to 42k..

Will all depend on how sincere they are about a energy ,Healthcare rebound.
Despite the next week movements I expect dow jones to retest 40,000 in Q1

Lastly spy

To be short , Spy will need Qqq to break over 531 to push above 602.50..
You have to understand, Spy goes nowhere with out tech.. if the dow jones rallied 300pts and nasdaq dropped 180pts Spy would finish red.
Aapl is worth almost 4 trillion, that evaluation in itself is bigger than the entire Health sector and Financial sector combined.

Above 603 and spy closes gap at 607

Below 598 and spy closes gap at 594
598-602 is chop

Spy will only break over 603 if QQQ can break over 533.. they are both connected.

Only 2 catalyst in the next few days...
Japan's CPI Thursday after the close will influence Friday's price..

The volume will remain muted until after new years So I'd go light and be nimble on any position.

Also End of year tax harvesting and Rebalancing will give us a nice Red day between now New years..

Opinion - The extreme discrepancy in some of these stocks is crazy.. Example, look at ExxonMobil technicals , Now look at aapl technicals.. look at the energy sector XLE then look at the Communication sector XLC.. I think in the coming weeks/Months Warren buffet bet on OXY will pay off

I'll keep this post open for updates for the next 2 weeks..

Happy new years

Trade active

Look at your overbought indicators for NQ and ES on the hourly time frame, pretty extended.. Cash session SPy/Qqq on the other hand isn't overbought.. when this happens you can see a gap down then a dip buy during cash..

Levels to watch

Qqq 527.50 .. if qqq holds this level they will buy it up

Spy support at 598

Trade closed: target reached

Why are some tech green and others Red?
Remember I said, up near 530 on qqq and the air is thin.. qqq will need to punch above 531.50 for more tech to rally.

Today looks like a cool off day for tech with the exception of aapl fawkery

Market dipped and supports held...
Boj cpi tonight..

Iwm nice move up to 225 resistance.. over 226 and 230 will come fast...

Catch you'll tomorrow

Note

Good morning..

Nq chart.. price reached top of the channel yesterday overbought on the hourly.

Close up of what happened

As you can see yesterdays price action created a what looks like a double top and a falling wedge.. only time will tell . If we hold low from yesterday then the Wedge will play out and they'll buy this back up to the high of yesterday. If we break the low from yesterday then spy will close gap at 594.

There is still 3 hours left until cash session, the 1hour has went oversold on the ES and NQ so I wouldn't be surprised to see the dip bought up

Note

This is how the price action finished up yesterday on the spy

We closed directly on the trendline support from 580 low.. a open below 600 would break it

I only like puts below 598.00.. target 594 gap close

You have to be careful shorting on holiday weeks.. there's no one really selling, just algos programmed for a range so patience and entry is important..

Long only over 603.. target 607..

I know 598-603 is a big range but chopping again is not outside the question..

Japan CPI came in better than expected and the Nikkei blasted... Next big catalyst is PMI numbers Monday and TSLA car sales next week

Note

15min chart..
Entry - over 15min 200sma or 226.50

Target 230

If it can't break over 226 and falls below 224 then 222 is up next

Note

Observation

Qqq closed gap at 522..
If qqq bounces then spy will regardless of the gap at 595... Tech is dragging..
Small caps strong

Note

Qqq needs to hold this 520 or things get really nasty..

Note

Looks weak.. I wouldn't catch a knife here...
Even AAPL is red.. could be tax harvesting EOY...

Note

over 18 and it's risk off ... Rejects and they'll buy the dip

Note

daily chart..
Pullback near trendline support ..
At this point it's not worth being short unless is closes back under 516.00

Overhead resistance will be
520.50 and over that 523.50

Note

Keep in mind 523 area on QQQ
20sma and gap resistance.. id tighten stops there... Over 523 and 525.00 comes

Note

Nice bounce off the lows... Like i said, market runs on QQQ... Over 523 or 20sma and they'll push this back to 530...

Below 516 and it's bear season...

So right now we are in chop mode...

I'll update this weekend ✌️

ContraryTrader

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