1. Big-Picture Narrative
There’s increasing talk of a “104% China Tariff,” bringing back memories of Donald J. Trump’s 1988 loss in a piano auction to a Japanese buyer—an event some speculate influenced his later calls for high import taxes. Fast-forward to today, and concerns about renewed tariff escalation add extra pressure on the markets. The user’s view: unless there’s a political shift—where Republicans become more concerned about broader voter sentiment than aligning with Trump—this could drive the S&P 500 down to 3000. While that is quite a distance from current levels, it underscores how aggressive policy moves (tariffs, trade wars) can weigh heavily on equities.
2. Hourly & Daily Chart Overview
Short-Term (Hourly)
Key Levels on the chart include:
Longer-Term (Daily)
The broader trend remains bearish, with high-volume selling in the last few sessions.
RSI on the daily is dipping into the 30s, indicating oversold conditions—but remember that oversold can persist in a strong downtrend.
Elevated ATR (14) around 16 suggests volatility remains high; large intraday swings can occur.
3. Possible Trade Setups
A) Bearish Continuation (Primary)
Entry Trigger:
A failure to reclaim 498 (L. Vol ST 2a) or a decisive break below 485.18 on strong volume.
Profit Targets:
First Target: 472.35 (Weeks High Short)
Second Target: 459.52 (Half 1 Short) for a larger downside move
Extreme Target: If policy missteps intensify and no political moderation occurs, the user foresees a slide to S&P 3000—an extreme scenario but a reminder of how macro risks can extend a downtrend.
Stop Loss:
Just above 500–502 if you’re entering on a breakdown, to protect against whipsaw should SPY manage a strong recovery above key resistance.
B) Oversold Bounce (Alternative)
Entry Trigger:
A strong reclaim of 498–500 and at least one hourly close above it, indicating buyers have stepped in.
Profit Targets:
First Target: 510.84 (L. Vol ST 1a)
Second Target: 523.67 (Best Price Short level) if bullish momentum accelerates
Stop Loss:
Below 485 to limit risk in case the rally fails and downtrend resumes.
4. Macro & Political Watch
Tariffs & Trade Policy: New or increased tariffs can rapidly shift market sentiment. Keep an eye on headlines for abrupt policy changes or legislative updates.
Political Dynamics: If Republicans shift their stance or emphasize broader voter concerns over aligning with Trump’s trade approach, it might calm markets. Conversely, unwavering support for tariff policies could amplify market downside.
Economic Indicators: In addition to politics, watch earnings releases and consumer data. If the economy shows unexpected weakness amid tariff concerns, selling pressure could intensify.
5. Final Thoughts
Volatility is Elevated: Intraday whipsaws are common; stay disciplined with stop-loss placements.
Bearish Bias Persists: The trend is clearly down unless bulls can reclaim key resistance levels with conviction.
Manage Risk: Always size positions appropriately given the current volatility, and remain prepared for sudden news-driven moves.
In summary, tariffs and politics remain a focal point, with historical anecdotes highlighting how personal experiences can shape trade policy. Whether SPY crashes all the way to 300 (S&P 3000) depends on how severe and prolonged these headwinds become. Keep a close eye on technical levels, watch for policy announcements, and maintain a vigilant approach to risk management.
There’s increasing talk of a “104% China Tariff,” bringing back memories of Donald J. Trump’s 1988 loss in a piano auction to a Japanese buyer—an event some speculate influenced his later calls for high import taxes. Fast-forward to today, and concerns about renewed tariff escalation add extra pressure on the markets. The user’s view: unless there’s a political shift—where Republicans become more concerned about broader voter sentiment than aligning with Trump—this could drive the S&P 500 down to 3000. While that is quite a distance from current levels, it underscores how aggressive policy moves (tariffs, trade wars) can weigh heavily on equities.
2. Hourly & Daily Chart Overview
Short-Term (Hourly)
Key Levels on the chart include:
Longer-Term (Daily)
The broader trend remains bearish, with high-volume selling in the last few sessions.
RSI on the daily is dipping into the 30s, indicating oversold conditions—but remember that oversold can persist in a strong downtrend.
Elevated ATR (14) around 16 suggests volatility remains high; large intraday swings can occur.
3. Possible Trade Setups
A) Bearish Continuation (Primary)
Entry Trigger:
A failure to reclaim 498 (L. Vol ST 2a) or a decisive break below 485.18 on strong volume.
Profit Targets:
First Target: 472.35 (Weeks High Short)
Second Target: 459.52 (Half 1 Short) for a larger downside move
Extreme Target: If policy missteps intensify and no political moderation occurs, the user foresees a slide to S&P 3000—an extreme scenario but a reminder of how macro risks can extend a downtrend.
Stop Loss:
Just above 500–502 if you’re entering on a breakdown, to protect against whipsaw should SPY manage a strong recovery above key resistance.
B) Oversold Bounce (Alternative)
Entry Trigger:
A strong reclaim of 498–500 and at least one hourly close above it, indicating buyers have stepped in.
Profit Targets:
First Target: 510.84 (L. Vol ST 1a)
Second Target: 523.67 (Best Price Short level) if bullish momentum accelerates
Stop Loss:
Below 485 to limit risk in case the rally fails and downtrend resumes.
4. Macro & Political Watch
Tariffs & Trade Policy: New or increased tariffs can rapidly shift market sentiment. Keep an eye on headlines for abrupt policy changes or legislative updates.
Political Dynamics: If Republicans shift their stance or emphasize broader voter concerns over aligning with Trump’s trade approach, it might calm markets. Conversely, unwavering support for tariff policies could amplify market downside.
Economic Indicators: In addition to politics, watch earnings releases and consumer data. If the economy shows unexpected weakness amid tariff concerns, selling pressure could intensify.
5. Final Thoughts
Volatility is Elevated: Intraday whipsaws are common; stay disciplined with stop-loss placements.
Bearish Bias Persists: The trend is clearly down unless bulls can reclaim key resistance levels with conviction.
Manage Risk: Always size positions appropriately given the current volatility, and remain prepared for sudden news-driven moves.
In summary, tariffs and politics remain a focal point, with historical anecdotes highlighting how personal experiences can shape trade policy. Whether SPY crashes all the way to 300 (S&P 3000) depends on how severe and prolonged these headwinds become. Keep a close eye on technical levels, watch for policy announcements, and maintain a vigilant approach to risk management.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.