Possible Bearish Harmonic (15m)
Updated
Possible bearish harmonic XABCD pattern showing potential upside to 373 in the interm. 373 is the top of the recent ascending channel formed from the Nov 9th high, and Nov 10th low (in white). The top of the channel also happens to converge with the longer-term ascending trendline from the April lows (in green). Let's see if we finally get that monthly (outside reversal candle) rejection we've been waiting on, to take us back below the megaphone trendline.
Homebuilder sentiment is shifting to the downside, and alongside a notably weak retails sales print this morning (-1.1%), we're definitely starting to see growing weakness in the real economy. Apparently congress is close to a stimulus deal, and it sounds like they're serious this time. Let's see if the culmination of stimulus news, vaccine rollout news, Biden winning the electoral vote news, and the real economy breaking down news, is enough resolution bring about a sell-the-news event this week. It's time to prick a hole in the largest credit, and rate driven bubble in history.
I appreciate your time today guys. If you enjoyed the analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
Homebuilder sentiment is shifting to the downside, and alongside a notably weak retails sales print this morning (-1.1%), we're definitely starting to see growing weakness in the real economy. Apparently congress is close to a stimulus deal, and it sounds like they're serious this time. Let's see if the culmination of stimulus news, vaccine rollout news, Biden winning the electoral vote news, and the real economy breaking down news, is enough resolution bring about a sell-the-news event this week. It's time to prick a hole in the largest credit, and rate driven bubble in history.
I appreciate your time today guys. If you enjoyed the analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
Note
Vix is sitting at a 22 handle, but looking resilient. Still testing the highway of EMA's above, which could see us trade sideways for a bit. But, if we see a break above $25, Vix is poised to explode: Note
The Put/Call ratio is still getting some resistance at the breakout point. At any moment, sentiment could shift negative and take stocks with it: Note
I'm not sure if you guys have heard about this ETN, but it's one of my favorite levered long ETN's for the mega-tech sector. Ticker is FNGU, and it's a BMO product. It's 3X leveraged, and holds only 10 components: Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Alibaba, Baidu, Nvidia, Tesla, and Twitter. If you're looking for targeted exposure to mega-tech, this is an interesting play: Note
FED meeting takeaway: "The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time." In other words, everything stays the same.If you give someone a license to print money, they'll never stop. When those bond lending programs stop at year end, and the fiscal (stimulus) response is limp at best, what then? NIRP? Nope.
Rates will spike and those with too much debt will become insolvent. The rest will spend their money servicing debt, instead of shopping. Risk free will pay well, and cash/currency will be king again. Lessons from the past are too soon forgotten, my friends.
Note
After some brief weakness, stocks are being panic bid (once again), to new a HOD. We're now sitting at the highest level since the previous new all-time high was made on Dec 9th, just 5 trading days ago. Let's see if the bulls go for the top of the channel around 373, crushing the previous all-time high of 371.04: Note
New all-time high 371.15.Note
That's all folks! it was the bulls show all day as we made new high's on the SPY. Markets got a jolt of optimism around 2PM, from the persistent dovishness of the FED. We're approaching the top of the channel and xabcd pattern on the SPY, which would mark the top in terms of the recent technicals. We saw headlines of stimulus talks, which I assume will materialize never. It's a perpetual buy the rumor narrative these days. Wash, rinse, repeat. I'm still waiting on a US/China Trade deal, but I guess that's gone out the window, along with the Trump Administration. The farce has got to end at some point, my friends. Trade accordingly. I hope you guys had a great day, thanks for all the positive feedback, and I look forward to seeing you all tomorrow for what should be an exciting day of trade, off the back of another (important) jobless claims print at 8:30.
Cheers! Michael.
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