SP500 Watch
Updated
Good: New high!
Neutral:
Bad: RSI entering overbought; most sectors seem to be topping out as well. VIX may have bottomed. VVIX on rise. Past says this will push SPY back down to bottom of blue upward channel.
Expectations: 300 and then 293, filling the gap up in October. That would require breaking through the 50d SMA so maybe it'll just hold there. Still expect EOY rally, but China trade bomb shell could change the game. Still think a recession and major SPY downturn is coming, but not until a blow off top in 2020 up to top of black channel. Expect the run to end and position downward into elections, before Mar 31.
Neutral:
Bad: RSI entering overbought; most sectors seem to be topping out as well. VIX may have bottomed. VVIX on rise. Past says this will push SPY back down to bottom of blue upward channel.
Expectations: 300 and then 293, filling the gap up in October. That would require breaking through the 50d SMA so maybe it'll just hold there. Still expect EOY rally, but China trade bomb shell could change the game. Still think a recession and major SPY downturn is coming, but not until a blow off top in 2020 up to top of black channel. Expect the run to end and position downward into elections, before Mar 31.
Note
More likely now, after the Hong Kong bill, that no progress is made in China trade this year. China won't cave soon. Both might maintain status quo through the holiday season, but the longer there is no deal, the closer we get to recessionary data showing in Q1 2020. Still expecting drop before Dec 15-20.Trade closed: target reached
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