Continuing from my last update, market volatility remains high due to Trump's unpredictable policy decisions. After initially folding and offering economic relief, Trump pivoted sharply with a sudden 145% tariff announcement. Today, China countered strongly with a 125% tariff. These escalating tariff exchanges continue to create significant uncertainty and market fluctuations, highlighting the critical need for careful analysis and precise trade management.
Technical Breakdown (4-Hour Chart)
Current Price Zone: Around $528.45
Key Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: $536.50 (L.Vol ST 1b)
- Critical Resistance: $549.33 - $549.60 (L.Vol ST 2b)
- Major Resistance Zone (Liberation Day): Approximately $562.16
Support Levels:
- Initial Support: $523.67 (Best Price Short)
- Secondary Support: $510.84 (L.Vol ST 1a)
- Important Lower Support: $498.01 (L.Vol ST 2a)
- Strong Support Level (Trump Folded area): ~$485.18
Trading Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Potential Tariff Tension Relief):
- Entry Trigger: Confirmed breakout and sustained hold above resistance at $536.50.
Profit Targets:
- Target 1: $549.33 (next strong resistance level)
- Target 2: $562.16 (major resistance)
- Stop Loss: Below immediate support at $523.67, carefully managing downside risk.
Bearish Scenario (Ongoing Tariff Escalation or Increased Market Fear):
Entry Trigger: Inability to reclaim $536.50, or a decisive breakdown below support at $523.67.
Profit Targets:
- Target 1: $510.84 (nearest significant support)
- Target 2: $498.01 (secondary critical support)
- Target 3: $485.18 (robust support area)
- Stop Loss: Above resistance at $536.50 to protect against potential reversals.
Thought Process & Final Thoughts
The SPY currently trades within clearly defined resistance and support bands, heavily influenced by unpredictable tariff-driven headlines. Trump's volatile policy shifts and China's assertive retaliations amplify short-term market risks. Maintain flexible trading strategies, adhere strictly to established levels, and practice disciplined risk management. Continuous monitoring and swift response to evolving market sentiment will be essential for navigating this challenging environment effectively.
Technical Breakdown (4-Hour Chart)
Current Price Zone: Around $528.45
Key Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: $536.50 (L.Vol ST 1b)
- Critical Resistance: $549.33 - $549.60 (L.Vol ST 2b)
- Major Resistance Zone (Liberation Day): Approximately $562.16
Support Levels:
- Initial Support: $523.67 (Best Price Short)
- Secondary Support: $510.84 (L.Vol ST 1a)
- Important Lower Support: $498.01 (L.Vol ST 2a)
- Strong Support Level (Trump Folded area): ~$485.18
Trading Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Potential Tariff Tension Relief):
- Entry Trigger: Confirmed breakout and sustained hold above resistance at $536.50.
Profit Targets:
- Target 1: $549.33 (next strong resistance level)
- Target 2: $562.16 (major resistance)
- Stop Loss: Below immediate support at $523.67, carefully managing downside risk.
Bearish Scenario (Ongoing Tariff Escalation or Increased Market Fear):
Entry Trigger: Inability to reclaim $536.50, or a decisive breakdown below support at $523.67.
Profit Targets:
- Target 1: $510.84 (nearest significant support)
- Target 2: $498.01 (secondary critical support)
- Target 3: $485.18 (robust support area)
- Stop Loss: Above resistance at $536.50 to protect against potential reversals.
Thought Process & Final Thoughts
The SPY currently trades within clearly defined resistance and support bands, heavily influenced by unpredictable tariff-driven headlines. Trump's volatile policy shifts and China's assertive retaliations amplify short-term market risks. Maintain flexible trading strategies, adhere strictly to established levels, and practice disciplined risk management. Continuous monitoring and swift response to evolving market sentiment will be essential for navigating this challenging environment effectively.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.