SPY SPX ES / Traders Flip the Script
Updated
Higher lows are required to provide the Flip into Higher Markets off of the Lows
at the 390.85 Level.
394 is backtesting Support
399.50 is the initial Resistance.
Powell Speaks at 9:10 AM EST after - 8:30 AM EST to provide both Initial and
Continuing Jobless Claims.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks @ Noon, followed by Consumer
Credit @ 3 PM EST.
"We're committed to maintaining our Policy"
Note - the Markets prefer stable to lower Rates, of late... this has not been
present. Should Powell provide Happy Color and TNX begins to move lower.
Powell's soothing IF there is to be such 399.50 squeeze comes into the Trade.
The Counter-Trend can morph into a further Squeeze and Meltup.
_______________________________________________________________________
Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard spoke yesterday providing some Flip Syde to the
Tape - covering all the bases with a positive Traders uptake.
Large Traders took advantage off the recent lows and began bidding SPX for
the squeeze while Retail began to follow their thesis of Lower Lows and a retest
of the Lows - AAII reached nearly 51%.
________________________________________________________________________
X Sectors in the S&P staged a large relief rally with the exception being XLE for
obvious reasons as Crude and Oil Majors were hammered lower. Crude ended the
day down 5%+ while the DX was lower on EU Rate Decision front runs.
We are one week away from VIX Roll beginning and it appears there is an early
retreat for Time to M2/V2 aka October.
The VIX Floor remains 20.50 / 28 the pivot for Higher.
VVIX in decline creates a gush of the potential onrush of VX Bids - 93.58 is the Pivot.
Bills, Notes, and Bonds saw a slight retreat, even TLT saw the 20 Year Yield provide
reprieve - coming off the 3.75s for 20 Year Yields (Implied).
DX can pull back to 108.50.
________________________________________________________________________
Market Internals during this shortened week, Wednesday was simply more Positive
then Tuesday was Negative.
NYSE TICKs were sporadic and inconsistent Tuesday and Wednesday firmed the Tick.
Buying activity was not purely Sellers on Coverbuys, there was newer organic buying.
A positive for the Buyers (Bulls) which may digest ahead of Friday's Expiry or simply
explode higher on the cross of 399.50, Bulls do not want to lose 394.00 - and the
Trendline will need to provide extreme support.
Apple's big event... a sleeper IMHO. New Camera - Wide Angle. Price Points that will
reduce their continuing Cult of Buyers. Marginal users are simply moving to Android and
away from the Apple Ecosystem. They are discovering a better Value proposition for
their needs - Apple's Global Market Share continues to decline markedly.
Apple needs to see 160.25 - 156.50 as the Breakup Level.
Calls remain in Balance for Friday @ 51.7%
________________________________________________________________________
Let's see how Powell presents this morning, he will drive the week end finish.
Good Luck and Trade Safe.
at the 390.85 Level.
394 is backtesting Support
399.50 is the initial Resistance.
Powell Speaks at 9:10 AM EST after - 8:30 AM EST to provide both Initial and
Continuing Jobless Claims.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks @ Noon, followed by Consumer
Credit @ 3 PM EST.
"We're committed to maintaining our Policy"
Note - the Markets prefer stable to lower Rates, of late... this has not been
present. Should Powell provide Happy Color and TNX begins to move lower.
Powell's soothing IF there is to be such 399.50 squeeze comes into the Trade.
The Counter-Trend can morph into a further Squeeze and Meltup.
_______________________________________________________________________
Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard spoke yesterday providing some Flip Syde to the
Tape - covering all the bases with a positive Traders uptake.
Large Traders took advantage off the recent lows and began bidding SPX for
the squeeze while Retail began to follow their thesis of Lower Lows and a retest
of the Lows - AAII reached nearly 51%.
________________________________________________________________________
X Sectors in the S&P staged a large relief rally with the exception being XLE for
obvious reasons as Crude and Oil Majors were hammered lower. Crude ended the
day down 5%+ while the DX was lower on EU Rate Decision front runs.
We are one week away from VIX Roll beginning and it appears there is an early
retreat for Time to M2/V2 aka October.
The VIX Floor remains 20.50 / 28 the pivot for Higher.
VVIX in decline creates a gush of the potential onrush of VX Bids - 93.58 is the Pivot.
Bills, Notes, and Bonds saw a slight retreat, even TLT saw the 20 Year Yield provide
reprieve - coming off the 3.75s for 20 Year Yields (Implied).
DX can pull back to 108.50.
________________________________________________________________________
Market Internals during this shortened week, Wednesday was simply more Positive
then Tuesday was Negative.
NYSE TICKs were sporadic and inconsistent Tuesday and Wednesday firmed the Tick.
Buying activity was not purely Sellers on Coverbuys, there was newer organic buying.
A positive for the Buyers (Bulls) which may digest ahead of Friday's Expiry or simply
explode higher on the cross of 399.50, Bulls do not want to lose 394.00 - and the
Trendline will need to provide extreme support.
Apple's big event... a sleeper IMHO. New Camera - Wide Angle. Price Points that will
reduce their continuing Cult of Buyers. Marginal users are simply moving to Android and
away from the Apple Ecosystem. They are discovering a better Value proposition for
their needs - Apple's Global Market Share continues to decline markedly.
Apple needs to see 160.25 - 156.50 as the Breakup Level.
Calls remain in Balance for Friday @ 51.7%
________________________________________________________________________
Let's see how Powell presents this morning, he will drive the week end finish.
Good Luck and Trade Safe.
Note
youtube.com/watch?v=fVSmA30qWu0 - PowellNote
394 FR was a perfect entry, ES breaks trend Line @ 4002...
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